Member Update / HH / Sell Out / Etc.

[Cap]

From the Member Update at HH this week - these are my take aways:

WVL will sell out by year end.

HH is about 85% sold and is on track to sell out in six months.
They are evaluating declaring the Sales Department 2 Bdr and the Grand Villa used for Member Coffees into available inventory to sell those units. The "shoulder season" is expanding and doing much better on members using points (beyond the June - August peak season). There is consideration of cutting back the Sales staff to one person.

VB is on track to sell out in about eight months.

Eagle Pines is NOT being stopped, but may be slow rolled, depending on sales. The name will likely be something more descriptive of the resort when it is opened, instead of Eagle Pines.

There will be some presales on BCV. It was implied that there will be some benefit to buyers (not determined exactly what it will be) since they will not be able to use their points until the inventory is declared.

 

[dianeschlicht]

Thanks for the info. Glad to hear the Eagle Pines project hasn't been totally scraped.

 

[Fenceman]

Thanks for the info Cap.

HH has been projected to sell-out in 6 months for the past 3 years. I do suspect eventually it will come true.

We are planning an add-on, most likely at HH, during our next trip in March. I will be following this board closely for any changes to MB or sell-out notifications. We usually know as much as the CM's do (usually more).

 

[SMM]

HH is home.......... What is the Member Update at HH?

 

[Caskbill]

SMM, the member updates are simply the weekly update meetings held each week at each resort. There the DVC sales staff updates members with the latest DVC news. It's a coffee and pastries meeting for members, and usually lasts about an hour.

For Cap, the Member update at HH simply means that he attended the member update while staying at the HH resort. You'll find others generally posting updates also as they attend meetings at the other resorts.

Cap, thanks for the info. I also am glad that VEP is only on a slow-down.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Cap
Eagle Pines is NOT being stopped, but may be slow rolled, depending on sales. The name will likely be something more descriptive of the resort when it is opened, instead of Eagle Pines.

I think we're talking somantics here. I don't see this as any different than to say it's being stopped to reevaluate later. Unless I see a building going up, it's still not a resort and remains a pipe dream. With the closing of French Quarter and Pop Century on indefinite hold, commom sense suggests it will be some time if it ever happens. I hope it does eventually happen as I'd like to stay there some time.

 

[Cap]

Dean,

The manager doing the update was very upfront, saying there had been lots of rumors on the Internet that Eagle Pines was stopped, but that was just not true.

I know that often the Sales Team doesn't know what the executives are planning to do, but it didn't seem like it was a coverup.

Also, I've talked to some members here who were just at Orlando and they report that it was pretty busy there last week.

 

[Dean]

Since this resort is a 2004 start date, I'd consider any delay to be very significant. I'm sure the sales staff has been told to downplay any changes in the plans for this resort or more likely, they weren't told much. My information doesn't come from internet rumors, it comes from a who is in with a WDW management person who is non DVC. Whether this makes it more or less accurate, who knows. But it just doesn't make sense to see a closure of one resort and indefinite postponement of another that's almost complete and still see them start a large project like this. Obviously there are many opportunities for this truth to change over the next few months and years.

 

[Caskbill]

Dean, you make some good points. But I'm also wondering, just what differences might exist between building a DVC resort and building a regular Disney hotel resort, such as Pop Century.

The money for a DVC resort will come from buyers fairly soon after construction, whereas Disney or some developers must front the money for a long time for a regular hotel type resort. Then, after it's built, they still have no guarantee the rooms will be filled. On the other hand, a DVC resort would have owners with points to use and would be using the points to stay in the DVC resort rather than let points expire. So, <u>once sold</u>, the DVC resort would be in good shape with a steady stream of members booking their reservations. WDW resorts have no such guarantee of repeating patrons.

The big question then is would they be able to SELL the new resort. That's a different object than the question of filling a WDW resort with paying guests. It's a tough question and I'm sure they're trying to figure out just what the economy is doing.

I'm not disagreeing with you, they're both economy related. But I think the economics are different for a condo development vs. a new hotel development. So, what Disney does with Pop Century and Port Orleans will be based on different criteria than what DVC does with Eagle Pines. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[ralphd]

What kind of initial BCV package do you think DVC will put together for members? Do you think they will hold price at $75 per point, or will they offer an incentive to spur sales?
ralphd

 

[Granny]

Pure guess, but I would think BCV would start out in the $80 - $85 range. I don't think VWL sales fell off much in the past few months, and the BW/BC area seems to be a high demand area, so what would Disney's incentive be to keep the pricing low?

They can always come back with enhanced MB if sales slow down. It seems that MB is their strategy to put a "sale" on the DVC memberships.

Hard to say....I'm glad I'm not in the DVD executives' chairs trying to figure out how to sell DVC in a tough economic and theme park attendance environment.

 

[BeckyV]

I was told last night by my guide that the April use year at HH is sold out. Fenceman, you might want to call your guide and ask him or her to watch the number of points for your month at HH. It may sell-out before March. We just added on for a second time to VWL and wanted to wait for HH as long as possible before adding on again.

 

[Fenceman]

Thanks for the info BeckyV. Our use year is Oct. and I would really like to hold out until after the 1st of the year before we add-on.

I will take you advice and send a message to my rep explaining our plans. If we don't make it, BCV here we come.

 

[Terry S]

Granny, from what everyone is saying there is going to be some type of benfit to the people who purchase during the pre-sale at BCV because they won't be able to use their points until the resort actually opens. $80 - $85 pp sure doesn't sound like a benefit.

 

[msdis]

I wonder if the "delay"on VEP is going to be based on sales of VBC; if sales take off and sell out is fast then they have no reason not to build as planned. Also, an announcement of a delay may help sales at the other resorts.


BTW, I had not heard of the closing on French quarter and Pop Century. Anyone care to elaborate? Was Pop Century ready to open? If I had a choice, due to financial reasons of staying at a "value" resort or not going, I would vote the value resort. This does not make sense to me.

 

[Granny]

Originally posted by Terry S
Granny, from what everyone is saying there is going to be some type of benfit to the people who purchase during the pre-sale at BCV because they won't be able to use their points until the resort actually opens. $80 - $85 pp sure doesn't sound like a benefit.

Terry S....well, I did say I was making a pure guess.

You could very well be correct. But people don't have to pay for their points until they can use them, do they? So that may be a wash.

I just thought that Disney might want to "test the selling waters" before bringing any deals out due to the presumed pent up demand for more DVC accommodations in the BC/BW area. But they know a heck of a lot more about selling DVC than I do (duh). I was just tossing out a "what-do-you-think?" kind of post.

 

[Terry S]

Granny, I knew what you were saying. I am just hoping for some incentive and if were going to give DVC some ideas (because they read these boards) I was thinking I would rather put the "give us some incentive" idea out there instead of the "charge $80 - $85" idea. Maybe someone knows some kind of mind altering way we can put it in our posts so that when they read it, they would be brainwashed. Something like "charge $75 pp for BCV" in between every other sentence. What do you think?

 

[Granny]

Terry S.....I like the way you think.

I know that some are concerned about what Disney management reads on these boards. I would be shocked if we are giving them any ideas that they haven't thought about themselves.

Also, I'm almost hoping they don't make BCV opening offers too attractive. I haven't even officially "gone home" yet and I've got some serious "add-on-itis"!!

Disney, PLEASE don't come out with a great opening offer!!!! (think that reverse psychology thing will work?)

 

[ralphd]

Still hope they will give the members a break on the pre-sale price at BCV. Remember DVC did hold the price increase on VWL for ( don't remember the time ) ........
Granny is correct that the maintenance will not be collected until actual occupacy begins, but they will be asking for the purchase price almost a year in advance ( plus or minus a few months).
Maybe they will give us free park passes(?) - dream on huh!
Hope it is something more than the MB.
ralphd