May 2022 Direct Sales drop

[Sandisw]

Thanks, Sandi!

So that brings up my next question: when did each resort open in relation to sales opening for existing members and in relation to sales opening to the general public?

I don’t know these details but I know many people here do!

Typically, members get about a month advantage over general public…

I know sales for RIV jumped pretty good after I opened in Dec 2019…and had some of the highest in monthly sales right before the shut down.

I don’t know about the rest. The other thing…when people talk how long it takes to sell out, they don’t always take into account number of points.

RIV has over 6 million…compare to original VGF which was about 2.6 million…of course VGF sold out in less time….

Unfortunately, the closure and what happened will always prevent us to know if the sales numbers prior would have continued at that rate.

But, obviously, at least in its first year of sales, the restrictions didn’t stop the average to be similar to VGF sales.

 

[Cubbiefan1734]

I like Riviera. We've visited a few times and found it to be a beautiful resort with arguably one of the best dining options on property. Also, we enjoy the using the skyliner to get to HS/Epcot.

That being said, I very much dislike the resale restrictions and how, in my opinion, it devalues the RIV contract. I don't buy a contract with the idea of selling it in the future, but it certainly is a factor when comparing it to any of the others currently in the system. Had Riviera not had the restrictions I probably would have owned many points there by now, as we don't have any points in the HS/Epcot area.

I agree with others who have said that DVC moving toward resale restrictions feels like another step toward DVC becoming just like any other timeshare. Maybe I'll be proven wrong over time but until then, I'll continue my (likely futile) protest by not buying restricted resorts, either direct or resale.

 

[Sandisw]

I like Riviera. We've visited a few times and found it to be a beautiful resort with arguably one of the best dining options on property. Also, we enjoy the using the skyliner to get to HS/Epcot.

That being said, I very much dislike the resale restrictions and how, in my opinion, it devalues the RIV contract. I don't buy a contract with the idea of selling it in the future, but it certainly is a factor when comparing it to any of the others currently in the system. Had Riviera not had the restrictions I probably would have owned many points there by now, as we don't have any points in the HS/Epcot area.

I agree with others who have said that DVC moving toward resale restrictions feels like another step toward DVC becoming just like any other timeshare. Maybe I'll be proven wrong over time but until then, I'll continue my (likely futile) protest by not buying restricted resorts, either direct or resale.

There certainly is no question that there are buyers, like you, who have not bought there because of the restrictions. I am pretty confident that DVD expected that to happen. Its why it is a little hard when comparing to know if the drop in sales that they had to expect, are palatable for them to play the long game. And, that is the aspect that none of us really know.

The next few months of sales will certainly be good to discuss and see how things are going with VGF and RIV. I still find it interesting that they declared the entire building for DVC point stays when they still had plenty of points available to sell....

 

[Huskerpaul]

I still find it interesting that they declared the entire building for DVC point stays when they still had plenty of points available to sell....

It is strange. By doing this do they make those units available to book right away? Maybe they hope to soak up some points and help mitigate the impact of the shutdown a little?

 

[savvy101787]

RIV has over 6 million…compare to original VGF which was about 2.6 million…of course VGF sold out in less time….

Great point. I think this goes unmentioned too often in the "RIV is a bust" argument. A better argument is that DVD might have went too big with the amount of points available. On a strictly point basis, RIV sold even more points in its initial 12 months compared to VGF (yes, I know it wasn't at the same time). Could that still be considered a miscalculation? Sure. Does that mean RIV isn't popular amongst the general population? Not at all.

 

[tjkraz]

I don’t dislike Riviera. I dislike the resale restrictions. When people talk about how great Riviera is, and how happy they were to buy points (either direct or resale), it can come off like they’re defending the restrictions. Hard to separate the two.

I must be missing something here. When people say "I love Riviera, so excited to have bought points there", you're interpreting this as "yay, resale restrictions!"??

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Love all the 2042 speculations. I wonder how many of us will still be here to say to each other “I told you so!!” while in our care/retirement homes.

 

[Sandisw]

It is strange. By doing this do they make those units available to book right away? Maybe they hope to soak up some points and help mitigate the impact of the shutdown a little?

Yes…those units are now available. But, I doubt they did it for that reason.

More likely, IMO they wanted them part of the association so they don’t care operating costs for them.

It’s definitely never happened like this before. And, it’s not like the resort studios booked up solid when Others can book them.

Still plenty of times within the 7 months that you can get them…which doesn’t tie to unsold points.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Great point. I think this goes unmentioned too often in the "RIV is a bust" argument. A better argument is that DVD might have went too big with the amount of points available. On a strictly point basis, RIV sold even more points in its initial 12 months compared to VGF (yes, I know it wasn't at the same time). Could that still be considered a miscalculation? Sure. Does that mean RIV isn't popular amongst the general population? Not at all.

A better comparison is Bay Lake Tower which has 5.7 million points. It took a little less than 3 years to sell out. Still not the best comparison to RIV since the COVID shutdowns happened early on in the marketing/selling of the Resort.

 

[tjkraz]

Yes…those units are now available. But, I doubt they did it for that reason.

More likely, IMO they wanted them part of the association so they don’t care operating costs for them.

There's nobody to pay dues on unsold points. DVC's developer guarantee still leaves them on the hook for paying the costs, and they cannot rent any rooms until the 60 day breakage window.

It’s definitely never happened like this before. And, it’s not like the resort studios booked up solid when Others can book them.

Riviera still had more than 500k unsold points when DVC declared more in April 2022.

I don't think it's terribly unusual to declare more points when they're in the neighborhood of 400-500k. What is unusual here is declaring all of those rooms at once, including points that DVC probably won't sell until May or June 2023.

Hard to argue that DVC members won't benefit from the additional room inventory. Particularly at a time when they're still digging out from the pandemic backlog.

 

[Sandisw]

There's nobody to pay dues on unsold points. DVC's developer guarantee still leaves them on the hook for paying the costs, and they cannot rent any rooms until the 60 day breakage window.


Riviera still had more than 500k unsold points when DVC declared more in April 2022.

I don't think it's terribly unusual to declare more points when they're in the neighborhood of 400-500k. What is unusual here is declaring all of those rooms at once, including points that DVC probably won't sell until May or June 2023.

Hard to argue that DVC members won't benefit from the additional room inventory. Particularly at a time when they're still digging out from the pandemic backlog.

But if the points are not declared then doesn’t DVD have to cover all costs for those rooms?

Once in the association isn’t the guarantee that theycover only if a shortfall, correct?

Definitely is a benefit for owners, just not sure it was done for that purpose.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Riviera outsold Grand Flo and Poly comparatively for their first year of sales? OK this is such ammunition for discussion with the "Riviera isn't selling well" camp - they apparently are so wrong. I love this! Thanks for the stats. I'm so curious about how Villas at Disneyland Hotel will do in their first year. On one hand the pent up demand is crazy since VGC has been sold out for so long / no other DVC options. On the other hand people are much more likely to buy smaller contracts there since most only stay 2-3 nights not 7-9 like WDW.

 

[sndral]

Riviera outsold Grand Flo and Poly comparatively for their first year of sales? OK this is such ammunition for discussion with the "Riviera isn't selling well" camp - they apparently are so wrong. I love this! Thanks for the stats. I'm so curious about how Villas at Disneyland Hotel will do in their first year. On one hand the pent up demand is crazy since VGC has been sold out for so long / no other DVC options. On the other hand people are much more likely to buy smaller contracts there since most only stay 2-3 nights not 7-9 like WDW.

Well, the minimum for new members is 150. I looked at the average contract size for May (divide total points by deeds) VGF was 169 points, RVA was 178 points.

 

[Nabas]

A better comparison is Bay Lake Tower which has 5.7 million points. It took a little less than 3 years to sell out. Still not the best comparison to RIV since the COVID shutdowns happened early on in the marketing/selling of the Resort.

BLT is the first Monorail Resort.

DVC buyers were super excited when that came out. (Walking distance to the Magic Kingdom!)

IMO, that level of excitement comes back for a DVC with direct access to a theme park.

 

[Sandisw]

Riviera outsold Grand Flo and Poly comparatively for their first year of sales? OK this is such ammunition for discussion with the "Riviera isn't selling well" camp - they apparently are so wrong. I love this! Thanks for the stats. I'm so curious about how Villas at Disneyland Hotel will do in their first year. On one hand the pent up demand is crazy since VGC has been sold out for so long / no other DVC options. On the other hand people are much more likely to buy smaller contracts there since most only stay 2-3 nights not 7-9 like WDW.

I think the biggest thing is does show is that buyers were able to look past the restrictions at least enough to still buy.

Now, I am sure many didn’t have the in-depth knowledge that we all do here and some might suggest that they didn’t really understand that potential implication when they bought … but they were aware because you sign it specifically. I’d even go as far as saying I’d bet the majority of DVC buyers don’t think about resale down the line.

I also believe that once RIV is not the only one with them…even if it is VDH on the west coast…it will be a selling point for DVD so now it’s RIV and VDH And all future.

It does come down to DVD deciding how they want to look at data. Do they want to find a reason to remove them? Or do they want to hang on to any data that points to keeping them.

 

[tjkraz]

But if the points are not declared then doesn’t DVD have to cover all costs for those rooms?

Once in the association isn’t the guarantee that theycover only if a shortfall, correct?

Definitely is a benefit for owners, just not sure it was done for that purpose.

Yes, Disney would have to cover the costs on undeclared points. But they also have the benefit of first-dibs to rent those rooms to cash guests months in advance. By declaring them, DVC is giving owners first dibs on the rooms. Disney may still get some breakage revenue but ONLY if members haven't booked rooms 60 days out. And Disney still has to cover the dues on unsold points, even if members are staying in the corresponding rooms.

Right now DVC owners have access to about 150 unsold Resort Studios--about 1.3 million points' worth--with DVC responsible for picking up the costs. There are also 600,000 declared-but-unsold Riviera points. Between RIV and VGF, that's nearly 2 million declared-but-unsold. I can't speak to DVC's motivations and I'm certainly not calling it a selfless act. But there are some very real benefits for owners, and I'm struggling to identify any downside to us.

 

[KimMcGowan]

Tishman Corp. is about 30 years into a 99 year lease. I have a vague memory that maybe that was extended - but a quick google search didn’t yield any info. about that. So 20 years to go before the BWV/BC flip/redo & almost 70 before Disney gets the Swolphin land back. Wonder which will finish first - Epcot’s construction or the BWV/BC flip/redo .

You mean right about the time they finally get around to the Boulder Ridge renovation?

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

Didn’t you hear? Boulder Ridge is now scheduled for 2043. It will be awesome!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Didn’t you hear? Boulder Ridge is now scheduled for 2043. It will be awesome!

Sadly, I can see this happening. Soft refurbs until 2043. Owners will start a revolution! Or a law suit. Whichever comes first

 

[DonMacGregor]

Sadly, I can see this happening. Soft refurbs until 2043. Owners will start a revolution! Or a law suit. Whichever comes first

Well, since they are happily continuing to collect capital improvement dollars from us in our MF's...