May 2022 Direct Sales drop

[DonMacGregor]

I remain curious regarding what will happen with many of these 2042 (and SSR in 2054) resorts. While you could argue that they can do a "full refurb" and flip them, you're still talking about, in many instances, predominantly wood-framed or predominantly wood-sided structures knocking on 50 to almost 70 years in age.

As someone who's spent his entire career in construction, the last 30 in construction forensics and building failure analysis, 60+ years for a commercial structure similar to those in question is prehistoric. Plus, construction materials, technology and techniques are moving forward at lightning speed, as are the expectations of resort guests.

Those old buildings are going to be woefully outdated structurally and technologically (think smart functionality, green green energy, etc.), and will fall well below the amenities that will be expected by guests when we hit the middle of the 21st Century. In many instances, updating or upgrading to current building codes and standards and technology, even today, is oftentimes cost-prohibitive, or impossible, from a practicality standpoint.

We shall see...

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I remain curious regarding what will happen with many of these 2042 (and SSR in 2054) resorts. While you could argue that they can do a "full refurb" and flip them, you're still talking about, in many instances, predominantly wood-framed or predominantly wood-sided structures knocking on 50 to almost 70 years in age.

As someone who's spent his entire career in construction, the last 30 in construction forensics and building failure analysis, 60+ years for a commercial structure similar to those in question is prehistoric. Plus, construction materials, technology and techniques are moving forward at lightning speed, as are the expectations of resort guests.

Those old buildings are going to be woefully outdated structurally and technologically (think smart functionality, green green energy, etc.), and will fall well below the amenities that will be expected by guests when we hit the middle of the 21st Century. In many instances, updating or upgrading to current building codes and standards and technology, even today, is oftentimes cost-prohibitive, or impossible, from a practicality standpoint.

We shall see...

Wouldn't that logic also mean "tear down the Contemporary A-frame"?

 

[Kjdisney]

Hopefully Yacht Club with a 2080 expiration, or Boardwalk 2, or Beach Club 2. I'm not sure why everyone thinks the 2042 resorts are going to fall off the face of the Earth when they expire. Disney is going to flip and resell them.

I don’t! I fully expect new DVC epcot/hs resorts, and can even see at least one coming before 2042. I just don’t think Disney will flip the existing. The crescent lake area is walkable to two theme parks and is very valuable real estate. I would not be surprised to see the area to become a smaller Disney Springs, with a lot more retail and restaurants. It would probably mean converting the existing resorts into those lifeless concrete boxes though.

But even if they just flip the resorts, it takes a while to have available resale at new resorts, so RIV will be a desired option. All the other resorts with expirations in the 60’s are MK resorts. I just think a lot of people under estimate the future resale value of RIV.

 

[RoseGold]

As someone who's spent his entire career in construction, the last 30 in construction forensics and building failure analysis, 60+ years for a commercial structure similar to those in question is prehistoric.

I'd be interested in what you think of the Poly flip. Poly is 50 years old now, and I thought the Poly flip made it one of the best rooms in the DVC system. Maybe that's bells and whistles, and the bones are the problem?

 

[DonMacGregor]

Wouldn't that logic also mean "tear down the Contemporary A-frame"?

The contemporary is an all-steel, stucco-clad structure that was build with modular rooms, like a cruise ship (just like Poly). They'll need to nuke that thing if they ever want to bring it down (well, except maybe the Garden Rooms).

 

[DonMacGregor]

I'd be interested in what you think of the Poly flip. Poly is 50 years old now, and I thought the Poly flip made it one of the best rooms in the DVC system. Maybe that's bells and whistles, and the bones are the problem?

See above. Both the Poly and Contemporary are actually steel structures with pre-fabricated rooms slid in (I think US Steel built them), like a cruise ship. Regardless, there are going to be functional and aesthetic architectural elements of any structure that old that will be or will have been sensitive to weathering, termites, soil movement, etc., particularly in a Central Florida swamp.

At some point, even with the steel structures, what we call EMP (electrical, mechanical & plumbing), other green energy requirements (exterior cladding, window and door glazing and seals, roofing materials), and overarching smart technology requirements, will dictate the practicality of future refurbishments.

As an aside, the trend is already evident with regard to schools, hospitals and other educational and institutional facilities. More and more often we are seeing hospitals and schools razed and simply rebuilt, often on the same site, as it is less expensive to build new than refurb or update. While obviously more sensitive than residential or mixed-use construction, it will eventually lead to the same end result.

 

[sndral]

I agree. The profit without the need of any CapEx will be way too tempting. I wonder what the deal is with the Swolphin land. Anyone know it is just leased, or any details?

Tishman Corp. is about 30 years into a 99 year lease. I have a vague memory that maybe that was extended - but a quick google search didn’t yield any info. about that. So 20 years to go before the BWV/BC flip/redo & almost 70 before Disney gets the Swolphin land back. Wonder which will finish first - Epcot’s construction or the BWV/BC flip/redo .

 

[CaptainAmerica]

More and more often we are seeing hospitals and schools razed and simply rebuilt, often on the same site, as it is less expensive to build new than refurb or update. While obviously more sensitive than residential or mixed-use construction, it will eventually lead to the same end result.

Yeah I think that's likely, but it's a distinction without a difference from a consumer perspective. Whether they gut the building or raze the building, it's the real estate that matters from the guests' perspective.

 

[RoseGold]

Yacht Club is 1990, so newer than I thought it was. I can still totally see a flip, like Big Pine VGF. Maybe with shorter than 50 year contract length.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Yeah I think that's likely, but it's a distinction without a difference from a consumer perspective. Whether they gut the building or raze the building, it's the real estate that matters from the guests' perspective.

I would strongly disagree (unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. It's the difference between the assumption that a resort will be cleaned up and freshened up and resold, versus a resort being razed and something else (possibly under the same name, or not) built in its place. What can and will be done will most certainly matter to Disney and will dictate which direction they take.

Many on here think those 60 year old resorts can simply be flipped with Disney making the mother of all windfalls, and I say that they may need to rebuild several of them, and at the very least do MAJOR, not minor renovation and reconstruction.

I'm also not so sure halfway to the 22nd Century, with a real colony on the Moon and Mars highly probable, and technology enjoying another 20 or 30 years of advancement, that guests will be super happy to spend the same purchasing dollars on what we would view today, relatively speaking, as a motel from 1965, versus whatever has been built in the intervening years.

 

[sndral]

Yacht Club is 1990, so newer than I thought it was. I can still totally see a flip, like Big Pine VGF. Maybe with shorter than 50 year contract length.

I really liked staying at the YC back in my cash days, but since my DVC era started I’ve grown attached to larger villas & would be disappointed if they did a studio only type flip at the YC.
Plus they just added 28,000 sq. ft. to & refurbed the YC convention center in 2018, so I don’t see a DVC flip happening there https://www.disneymeetingsandevents...xpansion-at-disney-s-yacht-beach-club-resort/
Maybe they’ll dust off the plans for a front of Epcot DVC resort.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I would strongly disagree (unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. It's the difference between the assumption that a resort will be cleaned up and freshened up and resold, versus a resort being razed and something else (possibly under the same name, or not) built in its place. What can and will be done will most certainly matter to Disney and will dictate which direction they take.

Many on here think those 60 year old resorts can simply be flipped with Disney making the mother of all windfalls, and I say that they may need to rebuild several of them, and at the very least do MAJOR, not minor renovation and reconstruction.

I'm also not so sure halfway to the 22nd Century, with a real colony on the Moon and Mars highly probable, and technology enjoying another 20 or 30 years of advancement, that guests will be super happy to spend the same purchasing dollars on what we would view today, relatively speaking, as a motel from 1965, versus whatever has been built in the intervening years.

I agree with everything you're saying from Disney's perspective. I think we disagree on the guest's perspective. I don't think a refurbished Beach Club 2 would sell any worse than a razed-and-rebuilt-from-scratch Beach Club 2.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I agree with everything you're saying from Disney's perspective. I think we disagree on the guest's perspective. I don't think a refurbished Beach Club 2 would sell any worse than a razed-and-rebuilt-from-scratch Beach Club 2.

I get that. I'm simply saying I don't think it will happen.

 

[Brian Noble]

well, except maybe the Garden Rooms

of which they’ve already razed/rebuilt half.

 

[Royal Consort]

Nah, I'll maintain my overly-reductionist line in the sand on this one. People simply hate Riviera because it's a lifeless concrete box with no discernable theme, and they don't want to be stuck selling a restricted contract 15 years from now.

Reductionist indeed. I think many factors influence RVA. A big one is the pandemic, the next is a likely recession. Yes, for some buyers it's the restrictions. It also doesn't have the history and nostalgia most WDW resorts have. When you build a fan base over decades, people are emotionally connected to the porperty. One big thing Riviera doesn't have.

Disney resorts are not particularly well themed outside of a small handful of resorts. I think RVA is just as well themed as most. Perhaps the theme itself is difficult for people to comprehend as its not as obvious as, say, Gone with the Wind POR. But it sells out quickly on cash and is booked fast. There's an appeal for a boutique relaxing and upscale Disney resort. Just not your taste.

 

[wnielsen1]

And I was told by people in this very thread that nobody would want VGF2 because Resort Studios are stupid and the lack of a microwave is an affront to God and the Constitution.

You forgot to mention that this "beverage cooler" is a joke that can't even keep a beer at the proper temperature let alone a quart of milk, and who wants a Keurig when everybody knows 4 out 5 doctors recommend that you drink 12 cups of coffee per day. And there's a couch that can be used for many things, but apparently, watching television is not one of them.

Now that I read all this again, it's exactly correct!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Reductionist indeed. I think many factors influence RVA. A big one is the pandemic, the next is a likely recession. Yes, for some buyers it's the restrictions. It also doesn't have the history and nostalgia most WDW resorts have. When you build a fan base over decades, people are emotionally connected to the porperty. One big thing Riviera doesn't have.

Disney resorts are not particularly well themed outside of a small handful of resorts. I think RVA is just as well themed as most. Perhaps the theme itself is difficult for people to comprehend as its not as obvious as, say, Gone with the Wind POR. But it sells out quickly on cash and is booked fast. There's an appeal for a boutique relaxing and upscale Disney resort. Just not your taste.

Timeshares are a volume game. There's no room for niche/boutique when you're trying to move millions of points. You need mass appeal.

I love Aulani more than just about any place on Earth. But I also acknowledge that it was a mistake for them to build so much Hawaii inventory when their client base is primarily made up of East Coast parents of small children who won't even make the 5 hour flight to Los Angeles, let alone the 11 hour flight to Honolulu. I understand the impulse to defend your favorites, but I think Riviera owners have tended towards head-in-the-sand.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You forgot to mention that this "beverage cooler" is a joke that can't even keep a beer at the proper temperature let alone a quart of milk, and who wants a Keurig when everybody knows 4 out 5 doctors recommend that you drink 12 cups of coffee per day. And there's a couch that can be used for many things, but apparently, watching television is not one of them.

Now that I read all this again, it's exactly correct!

Buy your beer at the pool bar! Grocery shopping is for peasants!

 

[wnielsen1]

Buy your beer at the pool bar! Grocery shopping is for peasants!

I'll be buying my beer at the Poly2 pool bar.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Timeshares are a volume game. There's no room for niche/boutique when you're trying to move millions of points. You need mass appeal.

I love Aulani more than just about any place on Earth. But I also acknowledge that it was a mistake for them to build so much Hawaii inventory when their client base is primarily made up of East Coast parents of small children who won't even make the 5 hour flight to Los Angeles, let alone the 11 hour flight to Honolulu. I understand the impulse to defend your favorites, but I think Riviera owners have tended towards head-in-the-sand.

All of which makes all of us So Cal owners very happy...