Glad to hear you're thinking about getting into
DVC. I want to urge some caution, however, since it appears you're looking most of the properties, including Aulani. I suggest you narrow down your search.
You will hear all sorts of different advice as to how to pick what to buy. Some advocate buying where you want to stay. Others advocate for buying the least expensive, with "least expensive" being defined as either the initial purchase price or calculated on a best guess as to what the expected costs over the lifetime of the contract will be. These issues and analysis can be found on these boards. Some even have run complicated and impressive spreadsheets.
My suggestion, and take it with a stiff handful of salt, is as follows: Find contracts with banked points where you want to stay and make low offers ($10-15 below ask) until you find a taker. Ignore the realtor telling you its either not going to pass ROFR, won't be accepted, or otherwise tries to make you feel bad. Once you find where you want to stay and that you want to buy DVC (an emotional decision), treat the purchase process itself as a business decision.
Good luck!
Eric
Oh, I've done the spreadsheets. Haha. Many of them.
As far as the ones I listed, they all either have points now, or will be having points coming later this year or early 2021....so before we would need to use them. I didn't see any stripped contracts that I was crazy about.
Thanks for giving me a general price range to try to negotiate.
What is your goal? in 2021 91 Bay Lake Tower points won't be enough to stay a week, even in a studio, ever. 160 AKL points OTOH will get you a week in a 1BR Standard View in low season or 10 days in a Savannah View studio most of the year. So "is it a good deal" depends on your plans.
That Boardwalk one is not a good deal right now no matter your goals. Nor is the 120 point SSR one.
Oh yes, I am aware of all of that. It's not uncommon for us to do a short week combined with a cruise, though. And, it would be an every other year sort of thing, plus it gets me into the monorail loop for sort of the cheapest option. That's why we kept it in the running.
And, while I know they aren't necessarily good deals, I was thinking by making an offer, I could make good deals out of them. If that makes sense.
What I would do is decide where you want to own. If there are a few, then narrow it down,
After that, decide when you want to go, and how often. Try to find a UY that starts just before typical travel so you maximize your ability to use or bank points if something happens to cancel the trip, including resorts being closed,
Once you have that, then use the ROFR thread here to get a general idea of what people are paying for contracts, Asking prices are just that...asking,
The contract I am selling for BWV just passed at 115.5. I think anything above $120 is too much in today’s market.
However, as a buyer, it is really up to you. If you find exactly what you want, it may not be worth waiting out for a perfect price. DVC is long term. If you pay an extra thousand or so now, it doesn’t amount to much long term.
If you Really don’t care where you stay, SSR is a pretty great and economical one to purchase
I'll definitely check out that thread. Thanks! Believe it or not, this WAS the narrowed down list.
I keep seeing such low prices on these forums, and yet...when I get to the listings, I never find any that low.
This is said with the best of intentions, so please forgive anything that comes across harsher than intended. Your post contains a bunch of red flags that would lead me to recommend none of the above contracts. You said that you spent all weekend crunching numbers and that things are starting to get all jumbled up. This points to deficiencies in your analysis. If you accounted for all the variables then a weekend of analysis should lead to clarity, not confusion.
It also sounds like this is a pretty big FOMO buy. Relax. Breathe. Take your time. You're not missing out on anything and if anything deals will likely get better in the upcoming months, not worse.
That aside, it is impossible to answer the question as presented. Without knowing use years or point statuses, it is impossible to value these contracts properly. Maybe you factored those variables into your analysis and simply didn't include that info here. But without that data, it is impossible to say what I feel the contract is worth.
I'm guessing the replies you are receiving on this thread are probably not what you expected and I'm sure that is disappointing. I'm sorry about that and I'm sorry to be contributing to that. But hopefully you take what you're reading here to heart and reexamine your process a bit. Good luck!
I don't take offense at all. But, I also know how I am. Yes, I am sure for most people it should provide clarity, but....I am an overthinker. I shop and re-shop and overthink everything. Everything. It's rare for me to have a "This is....the one" feeling about anything.
As far as FOMO....there is a bit of that yes, but there is also a bit of....this is the time. The last time I was on the market was about 5 or 6 years ago. I was pretty dead set on doing it. But, my Mom got sick, my sister got pregnant, then my Dad nearly died, then my sister got pregnant again....lol. Long story short, life happened, and other things occupied mind and time. Well, by the time I got back to looking at listings, prices had gone significantly up. And, I was really kicking myself for not following through. So, I definitely don't want that to happen again.
