Looking to purchase resale...are any of these good deals?

[ELMC]

Yeah, like I said in a previous comment, I was in the market before, life happened, and then by the time I was ready again, prices had jumped. I know it will be a sweet spot, to pick the right time to buy. I am afraid to wait too long, and prices will jump and DVC will hit hard with the ROFRs.

I totally understand that this is constantly in the back of your mind. It sucks that you missed out on an opportunity and you don't want that to happen again. I've been there, I totally get it. That said, I think it's important that you recognize that there are many, many differences between then and now. Back then you were punished for waiting. The general consensus around these parts is that this time around you will be rewarded. I think the buying opportunities are only going to get better with time, and for a prolonged period of time at that. Good luck!

 

[TandemShoehorns]

Yeah, that's the thing. I really wouldn't mind staying at any of them. We like SSR, but we don't want to get "stuck" there either. By stuck, I mean that every single vacation will be there. But, I don't know that we'd really want to be stuck anywhere, actually.

We started out with SSR points only. We were able to "sample" many different resorts. It could have been the time of year we travel, the length of stay, or the room type we chose, but we never felt "stuck" at our home resort. However, I am a firm believer in buy where you want (most) to stay. The 7-month window may be more difficult now than it was in the past. I sometimes wonder about the impact of the points sold against the PVB bungalows and the CCV cabins. And the next few years might be out of the normal pattern.

 

[BarlowFamily]

I understand things getting jumbled after more research! We started looking at DVC a few months ago. We really thought we would purchase certain resorts, but the more research we did, the more this changed! Take your time! You've received some great feedback, I do think resale prices will fall in the next few months. Don't rush this. And when you do finally make the leap, ENJOY!

I went ahead and offered my two cents and rearranged the contracts from my most to least favorite. I'm assuming these contracts have full points, not stripped. If they are stripped, I would deduct $10-20 pp. If I was spending your money for you...this is how I would do it.

VGF- 100 points. $158/pp
As long as this contract isn't stripped, I think this is great! Great price and great resort! You'll soon have walkway to Magic Kingdom and there will still be boats and the monorail.

AKV- 100 points. $117/pp OR. 160 points. $100/pp.
We love AKL! I would be so happy with sleep-around points here! Because if nothing else you want is available at 7 months, you still have this wonderful resort to come home to. I would take the suggestion to under bid here by $10 or $15.

OKW extended 130 points. $112/pp
OKW extended contracts are like unicorns to me, I would purchase a small one if I could ever find one. Seems a little higher per point than I would like though. We like the second real bed in the studios here. DVC sofa beds are disliked by everyone in our family.

SSR 150 points. $94/pp OR. 120 points. $110/pp
Just a few months ago, I thought SSR was a crazy buy. You can just book it at 7 months if you really want to. But SSR has crept up our list because we like the grounds and proximity to Disney Springs. I would be happy with either of these, but I'd probably offer $10-15 lower and see what happens. Especially since there are so many SSR contracts out there.

BWV- 125 points. $135/pp
We're really not interested in BWV, but I totally understand why you are! I agree with what you said in other posts, this is too high considering the life of the contract. This price is for folks who really want only BWV. Let them have it.

Poly- 100 points $140/pp
A little high than I would want, but I think Poly is another great choice! When we first started looking at DVC, I thought we would purchase Poly points, but after more research Poly slips off our list. I'm confident we'll be able to book here at the 7 month window, as long as its not the crazy fall frenzy.

BLT- 91 points. $160/pp
BLT is at the top of our list now...but for $20 less a point than this. Is it fully loaded with some extra backed points or something?

Aulani- 160 points $99/pp.
No. You mentioned just wanting point for a big family trip one year. Bank, borrow, whatever it takes. This is a fair price though. And I agree that often buying a contract is just slightly more than a cash trip!

 

[a742246]

Before you purchase anything, understand what use year means and its benefits of picking a correct one .

 

[mmackeymouse]

When I am looking to add a contract, one of my number one concerns is the maintenance fees for that resort.

I just hate that huge chunk of cash that is due every year, and I am always paranoid about jumps in cost--like how they hiked up a bit in the last couple years.

So I look at the resorts with the lowest maintenance fees and pick my favorite one that seems affordable among them.

Oh absolutely. VGF and SSR both have dues that I feel are pretty reasonable. AKV is a bit higher, but when you consider the property that they have to maintain, it's actually pretty fair.

I would encourage you to price not in terms of $/point but instead in terms of $/night. Pick a week you’re likely to go and use the 2021 charts as your baseline. BWV’s chart requires so many fewer points than for example the monorail resorts that it’s modest discount on $/pt vs the monorail resorts becomes a fire sale on $/night.

You make such an excellent point. So, just for funsies, I compared a specific week, standard studio, between BWV and VGF. It came out to $173 a night for BWV and $191 a night for VGF.

It's tighter than I thought it would be. BUT, then there is the perspective of....the cash cost of VGF compared to BWV is a big difference and makes the savings that much more.

Wow....such a tough decision.

When you go will make a difference in terms of how easy or hard it will be to trade out? Length of time too,

You May need to do split stays. I will say 1 bedrooms do tend to be available at the near park resorts more often than other room sizes,

But, ultimately, you may not be able to trade to the exact resort you want to try for the trip you want to do that,

Given the closure, there is going to be more difficulty at 7 months at the popular resorts,

So, having to pick a home resort is part of it, and you do have to be okay that trading can be hard. It has gotten harder, other than summer, and be comfortable with where you own,

We typically are fall goers, but that may not always be the case. I don't know that we are married to that time frame.

Yeah, the 1 BR thing is the x factor right now. Yes, with more points, say from SSR, I would be able to bank/borrow (eventually hopefully), but it would still be an increase in cost per night, without really increasing a ton of capacity. The 2BR is definitely a better value there.

None of the above. Wait for November for much better deals.

Oh goodness. Not sure my patience can last that long. Haha.

I totally understand that this is constantly in the back of your mind. It sucks that you missed out on an opportunity and you don't want that to happen again. I've been there, I totally get it. That said, I think it's important that you recognize that there are many, many differences between then and now. Back then you were punished for waiting. The general consensus around these parts is that this time around you will be rewarded. I think the buying opportunities are only going to get better with time, and for a prolonged period of time at that. Good luck!

I keep hearing this....that prices are gonna drop. But....they haven't yet. Nominally maybe. But, not across-the-board drops. I just worry about holding out for something that may not come to be. And, by then, it will be too late.

We started out with SSR points only. We were able to "sample" many different resorts. It could have been the time of year we travel, the length of stay, or the room type we chose, but we never felt "stuck" at our home resort. However, I am a firm believer in buy where you want (most) to stay. The 7-month window may be more difficult now than it was in the past. I sometimes wonder about the impact of the points sold against the PVB bungalows and the CCV cabins. And the next few years might be out of the normal pattern.

Here's the thing. I am a BWV girl at heart. Epcot is my favorite park. That said, I kind of like taking the monorail to Epcot more than walking. But, I have not stayed at AKV or VGF.

AKV has been a bucket list item for so long. And, I know it will be absolutely amazing. The decor, the food, the animals. But, it not being by a park is a downfall, for sure.

With VGF, I have a trip booked, although...who knows if that will happen or not. I could love VGF more than BWV. I think there's a good chance I will. But, maybe I get there and while I love the room, I miss the hustle and bustle of the Jersey Shore ambiance. That's possible too.

I know I love BWV. I think I would probably love VGF as much, if not more. But...no guarantee.

 

[mmackeymouse]

I understand things getting jumbled after more research! We started looking at DVC a few months ago. We really thought we would purchase certain resorts, but the more research we did, the more this changed! Take your time! You've received some great feedback, I do think resale prices will fall in the next few months. Don't rush this. And when you do finally make the leap, ENJOY!

I went ahead and offered my two cents and rearranged the contracts from my most to least favorite. I'm assuming these contracts have full points, not stripped. If they are stripped, I would deduct $10-20 pp. If I was spending your money for you...this is how I would do it.

VGF- 100 points. $158/pp
As long as this contract isn't stripped, I think this is great! Great price and great resort! You'll soon have walkway to Magic Kingdom and there will still be boats and the monorail.

AKV- 100 points. $117/pp OR. 160 points. $100/pp.
We love AKL! I would be so happy with sleep-around points here! Because if nothing else you want is available at 7 months, you still have this wonderful resort to come home to. I would take the suggestion to under bid here by $10 or $15.

SSR 150 points. $94/pp OR. 120 points. $110/pp
Just a few months ago, I thought SSR was a crazy buy. You can just book it at 7 months if you really want to. But SSR has crept up our list because we like the grounds and proximity to Disney Springs. I would be happy with either of these, but I'd probably offer $10-15 lower and see what happens. Especially since there are so many SSR contracts out there.

BWV- 125 points. $135/pp
We're really not interested in BWV, but I totally understand why you are! I agree with what you said in other posts, this is too high considering the life of the contract. This price is for folks who really want only BWV. Let them have it.

BLT- 91 points. $160/pp
BLT is at the top of our list now...but for $20 less a point than this. Is it fully loaded with some extra backed points or something?

Oh my gosh, thank you for this thought out reply. Wow. So helpful!

VGF- It is not fully stripped. New points are coming 2021, but 2020 is gone. Which is fine by me. I would like to be at $130 for VGF. I know that's way under where the market is now. And while I'd like to go through the DVC Store, I know they strongly discourage making borderline insulting offers, and currently the VGF contracts on DVC Store are priced at $190-$200 pp. So, I'm not sure I could ask them to make an offer 70 points lower than asking. That would be rough.

AKV- Definitely interesting. I would prefer to go with the higher contract, but I would like to be around maybe $89, so that sounds like it's within the range that you'd suggest. I still think this might be on the lower side of things, because with the dues being where they are and increasing, the overall life of the contract is about twice what it would be at SSR, 3 less years but still.

SSR- So, on the 150 contract, I am thinking $80 pp? While SSR isn't my first choice of home resort, it would be tough to pass up a deal.

BWV- for those of you who are BWV lovers like me.....I'd like to get in sub-$100. If I was shooting for $95-99 offer, would you go ahead and go for it now? Or wait till the market goes down? DVC Store does have a listing at $123. I don't know if $95 would be too low.

BLT- No it was not fully loaded. Has about 2/3 of this year points still on it. No idea why it is priced the way it is.

 

[mmackeymouse]

Before you purchase anything, understand what use year means and its benefits of picking a correct one .

I understand what Use Year means. I just struggle with how it applies to us. We aren't really locked in to any particular time of year. Historically, it's been in the August-December time frame. But, we've talked about traveling in January. We've talked about spring. Our last trip was July. If I absolutely had to nail down a use year, I'd probably say August, because I think September is probably the most likely month, if I had to pick a month.

But, let me throw this scenario out there and make sure it holds up. Let's say I have a March use year. And, I have a trip booked in September. We find out that wdw is only going to have half the park open. So, we decide to re-schedule. Now, we could just re-schedule for January. But, we are also within the window that we could just bank those points too, right? So, we just bank those points, then we have more points coming in March. So, then we decide to do a...July or August trip with double the points. Maybe a longer stay or something. Am I thinking right?

 

[TandemShoehorns]

BWV- for those of you who are BWV lovers like me.....I'd like to get in sub-$100. If I was shooting for $95-99 offer, would you go ahead and go for it now? Or wait till the market goes down? DVC Store does have a listing at $123. I don't know if $95 would be too low.

We love the feel of the Boardwalk too. Sandisw just sold a contract at $115.5, so I guess you have a shot sub 100 eventually. Keep an eye on the ROFR thread for recent deals going through, or not going through.

 

[a742246]

I understand what Use Year means. I just struggle with how it applies to us. We aren't really locked in to any particular time of year. Historically, it's been in the August-December time frame. But, we've talked about traveling in January. We've talked about spring. Our last trip was July. If I absolutely had to nail down a use year, I'd probably say August, because I think September is probably the most likely month, if I had to pick a month.

But, let me throw this scenario out there and make sure it holds up. Let's say I have a March use year. And, I have a trip booked in September. We find out that wdw is only going to have half the park open. So, we decide to re-schedule. Now, we could just re-schedule for January. But, we are also within the window that we could just bank those points too, right? So, we just bank those points, then we have more points coming in March. So, then we decide to do a...July or August trip with double the points. Maybe a longer stay or something. Am I thinking right?

Yes, but if you booked that January vacation and you cancel that reservation from November on, you would not be able to banked those January points into your next March UY since your 4 month banking window would be past.

 

[GCorbett]

You'll want to come up with a formula to compare apples to apples. In my recent purchase of a Poly contract, I looked at the ROFR board to see what deals were passing ROFR/being accepted. Then I took into account the number of points being transferred. By way of example, the contract I bought was 220 points in a UY (August) that worked for us. The ROFR indicated that deals were closing in the low $140s. The contract in question had 8 banked points, and the full 220 for all years thereafter. I valued the 2019 points, which I would not have to pay MF for at about $9 per point (Price per point/number of years left plus maintenance fees = the approximate cost per point including maintenance fees). I offered $138 ($10 less than the asking price) on the contract expecting a counter offer. The buyer came back with $141 per point and two months of maintenance fees paid. I took it. Essentially, if you subtract the value of the 2019 points, I got it for about $132 a point which I was happy with. The 9 banked points are of no use to me, but that's not the end of the world. My calculations may be crazy, but it helped when looking through multiple contracts.

 

[BarlowFamily]

Looks like you've narrowed down your list, that's great!

VGF You could offer $130 on this contract that is asking $158, but I wouldn't do that on anything priced $190-200. Maybe VGF will get to go your price point in the next few months.

AKV I see a 100 point contract waiting on ROFR for $95 pp, so your $89 is sounding reasonable. I know, I know the dues. And that's exactly why AKV isn't number one for me. Such a great resort though!

SSR I think the most recent 150 SSR passed for $96 pp. but $80 seems low to me. I'd personally offer $89. If I see your $80 on the rofr thread I'll be cheering for you.

BWV I hope you get some feedback from BWV lovers. Someone has got to make the first low offer, why not you?

We are don't really care about use year. We will come any month of the year. Just based on point charts we probably wouldn't stay with DVC points if our trip was in April...other than that we're wide open. I think it's important to understand how use year works and what it means for the particular contract/use year you get. How often do you cancel/re-book vacations? Our trip this coming May is the first one I can think of our family had to cancel/re-book. I know, I know, knock on wood or something. I'm not bragging. But there is a lot of talk about selecting the right use year that gets me worried. And then I remember that some time shares don't give you the option to cancel or re-book. Grateful DVC at least has some flexibility.

Looking forward to seeing your name on the ROFR thread soon! Good luck! Keep up the research!

 

[ldo]

I like a UY that is still 4 month away from when I would likely "know" in "normal" times that I might canx my trip. I first had Sept UY on a small contract--terrible for summer travel, as I had to canx a trip/bank by April and if I rescheduled for later summer and didn't make it, I lost those points.
I sold that one and bought at AKV. I was about the same $ as SSR and we loved AKV. We usually just stay there, but have also booked others. I chose Dec UY. We travel to WDW Dec, spring and summer. Almost never fall. Dec UY is really bad for Thanksgiving trip--but we don't have a long enough break to do that anymore.
Dec has been perfect for us. I can canx or change dates of summer travel until end of July. Of course, availablity has to be there. We usually book AKV, OKW or do a split stay to pick up nights for 30-60 day reshuffle. Also, think longer term, not just for the next few years. For ex, if young kids, think school calendar. Teens, think college calendar (no more late Aug trips), etc. Good luck.
I'd also offer $10-15 under. If no takers, wait a bit. I think pricing will decline in the fall.

 

[Brianstl]

I've been planning to purchase resale for a while. I'm in a good position to be able to purchase now, and I am hoping that between re-sales and ROFR, now is a good time to pull the trigger. I've spent all weekend looking at listings and crunching numbers. And things are starting to get all jumbled up as far as value. I don't think numbers are as low as they could be, I don't want to wait too long and lose out on a deal.

Here are some of the details on listings I am looking at. Could you let me know which you think are the most valuable, which one you would go for, and what your offer would be for them?

AKV- 100 points. $117/pp OR. 160 points. $100/pp.

Aulani- 160 points $99/pp.

BLT- 91 points. $160/pp

BWV- 125 points. $135/pp

VGF- 100 points. $158/pp

OKW extended 130 points. $112/pp

Poly- 100 points $140/pp

SSR 150 points. $94/pp OR. 120 points. $110/pp


Are any of these good deals? Should I put an offer in?

None of them are good deals. They are all asking more than the average resale price in March with the exception of SSR and VGF. We have seen contracts since then have sold for amounts significantly lower than those March prices.

I would start with an offer 20% or more below the average resale price in March and see if they accept or counter. I wouldn't do any deal right now unless you get a significant discount from those March prices. The market is only going to drop more going forward and booking is going to be very difficult for 24 months.

Here are the March average resale prices according to https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/:

 

[viper17d]

Echoing what others have said, buy where you want to stay or wouldn’t mind staying. Depending on your desired accommodation and time of year, you could very well be stuck at your home resort (a) over the next few years as COVID inventory shakes out and (b) beyond as new resorts are added and more points are out there to book at 7 months.

Generally, larger accommodations are easier to book at 7 months. If you are only buying enough points for a studio on most of your trips, you should be thinking that your home resort will be where you stay 75% of the time.

Also along what others have said, if you can, wait. Resale prices will go down later this year. If you care about the upfront cost and you aren’t looking to do a trip later this year or early 2021, you shouldn’t be in a rush.

If you definitely want to buy sooner than later, don’t be afraid to make a low offer. In this environment, no offer that is greater than 60% of the asking price is “insulting”. It may be too early to get those kinds of deals, and expecting to get something for less than 80% of asking might not happen.

You don’t know these sellers’ situations. I am sure that a lot of contracts have been sitting there for weeks with no offers and they’d be happy to have one to start negotiations. Also, resale prices have been pretty high lately, so unless you’re buying a new new resort, sellers may have purchased their contracts 20-30% below where they are listed.

Best of luck!

 

[cm8]

I understand things getting jumbled after more research! We started looking at DVC a few months ago. We really thought we would purchase certain resorts, but the more research we did, the more this changed! Take your time! You've received some great feedback, I do think resale prices will fall in the next few months. Don't rush this. And when you do finally make the leap, ENJOY!

I went ahead and offered my two cents and rearranged the contracts from my most to least favorite. I'm assuming these contracts have full points, not stripped. If they are stripped, I would deduct $10-20 pp. If I was spending your money for you...this is how I would do it.

VGF- 100 points. $158/pp
As long as this contract isn't stripped, I think this is great! Great price and great resort! You'll soon have walkway to Magic Kingdom and there will still be boats and the monorail.

AKV- 100 points. $117/pp OR. 160 points. $100/pp.
We love AKL! I would be so happy with sleep-around points here! Because if nothing else you want is available at 7 months, you still have this wonderful resort to come home to. I would take the suggestion to under bid here by $10 or $15.

OKW extended 130 points. $112/pp
OKW extended contracts are like unicorns to me, I would purchase a small one if I could ever find one. Seems a little higher per point than I would like though. We like the second real bed in the studios here. DVC sofa beds are disliked by everyone in our family.

SSR 150 points. $94/pp OR. 120 points. $110/pp
Just a few months ago, I thought SSR was a crazy buy. You can just book it at 7 months if you really want to. But SSR has crept up our list because we like the grounds and proximity to Disney Springs. I would be happy with either of these, but I'd probably offer $10-15 lower and see what happens. Especially since there are so many SSR contracts out there.

BWV- 125 points. $135/pp
We're really not interested in BWV, but I totally understand why you are! I agree with what you said in other posts, this is too high considering the life of the contract. This price is for folks who really want only BWV. Let them have it.

Poly- 100 points $140/pp
A little high than I would want, but I think Poly is another great choice! When we first started looking at DVC, I thought we would purchase Poly points, but after more research Poly slips off our list. I'm confident we'll be able to book here at the 7 month window, as long as its not the crazy fall frenzy.

BLT- 91 points. $160/pp
BLT is at the top of our list now...but for $20 less a point than this. Is it fully loaded with some extra backed points or something?

Aulani- 160 points $99/pp.
No. You mentioned just wanting point for a big family trip one year. Bank, borrow, whatever it takes. This is a fair price though. And I agree that often buying a contract is just slightly more than a cash trip!

Those point amounts will absolutely not be enough for 2 bd rms unless you’re talking about 2 or 3 days.

 

[DisMomKY]

None of them are good deals. They are all asking more than the average resale price in March with the exception of SSR and VGF. We have seen contracts since then have sold for amounts significantly lower than those March prices.

I would start with an offer 20% or more below the average resale price in March and see if they accept or counter. I wouldn't do any deal right now unless you get a significant discount from those March prices. The market is only going to drop more going forward and booking is going to be very difficult for 24 months.

Here are the March average resale prices according to https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/:

20% off those numbers? So start at 112 pp at BLT and 109 at Poly?

 

[EM Lawrence]

20% off those numbers? So start at 112 pp at BLT and 109 at Poly?

That may be where prices end up eventually. But I have been trying low offers on Poly (mostly in the 120-136 range depending on contract) and most of the time I have not even gotten a counter offer. Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but I suspect that while there are rare amazing deals to be had right now, a lot of sellers still expect the prices they could get 8 weeks ago. I'm anxious to the the April sales data.

 

[Brianstl]

20% off those numbers? So start at 112 pp at BLT and 109 at Poly?

That is what I would do, but I am not in a hurry to buy a contract now either. So I wouldn't have to worry about a seller not coming back with a counter and that is more than likely going to happen on some of those contracts out there. I am waiting for prices to drop even more.

That said, any deal that any buyer is comfortable paying is ultimately a good deal. If you are happy with the purchase when you made it, don't let better deals latter on lead to buyer's regret. DVC is just like anything else where you can get burned by waiting too long for prices to continually drop. So any buyer should take their own needs, wants and situation into account more than what any poster on here post.

 

[MICKIMINI]

That may be where prices end up eventually. But I have been trying low offers on Poly (mostly in the 120-136 range depending on contract) and most of the time I have not even gotten a counter offer. Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but I suspect that while there are rare amazing deals to be had right now, a lot of sellers still expect the prices they could get 8 weeks ago. I'm anxious to the the April sales data.

Are you not getting a response from the broker or is the broker letting you know the owner declined your offer with no counter? I swear, prices seem to be going up on some resellers websites!

 

[DIS_MERI]

Yeah, that was the biggest drawback with Aulani. If the 7 month window falls through, having Aulani as a backup isn't really feasible.

That said, my thought process was that we do want to do Aulani eventually, and if we do, it will be a big family vacation, probably a Grand Villa. In order to have a chance at availability, I felt like that was the best option. And, if we did a Grand Villa at Aulani in cash, it's almost as much as buying an Aulani contract anyway. That's why I had it in the running.

For Aulani, I would consider getting transfer points from an owner when you want to go. You will spend a bit more for them, but they will allow you to book (by phone) at the 11 month mark rather than chancing banking/borrowing your own points at 7 months. My original DVC was a 25 pt OKW and I’ve used transfers several times to get more/“better” points. Very similar to renting, but you control the reservation (you just have to be an owner somewhere for this to work)!