Longer term question of the value of DVC

mlayton14

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 9, 2006
I know there is a lot of discussion about the value of DVC with lots of speculation of prices now and over the next 6-12 months - both direct and resales. I think a bigger overall question of the “value” moving forward of DVC is really the future of the parks.

If this turns really bad economically long term, which is a distinct possibility- disney is going to have a real cash and debt problem. Where are they going to find the money to continue plussing the parks to justify these ridiculously high prices? This will most certainly mean pressure to reduce capital spending for new rides and attractions and entertainment, as well as ongoing operational costs to just what they have keep running (like CMs, housekeeping , food quality, park upkeep, etc) which for many makes the Disney experience. It has a real chance to snowball downward for a while. And unfortunately, the other operating units such as television , movies, etc has the potential to also cannibalizes profits from parks and resorts.. $70 billion for Fox? Not sure how this is gonna turn out

Does anyone with long term commitments (which are most of us) worry about the overall Disney resort experience over the next 20 years +? I’m not talking about a drop in quality turning this into Six Flags , but creating magic costs a lot of money , and not so confident this isn’t going into that direction
 

bumbershoot

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Does anyone with long term commitments (which are most of us) worry about the overall Disney resort experience over the next 20 years +? I’m not talking about a drop in quality turning this into Six Flags , but creating magic costs a lot of money , and not so confident this isn’t going into that direction
What are you thinking is going to happen, specifically for DVC owners?
 

Sandisw

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Do you mean the park experience being less than magical? Personally, I am not because my trips are 50% parks and 50% hanging out and enjoying being there,...and maybe not even that park heavy,

Yes, when I go with guests who have not been that often, we do more parks, but I think Disney will figure a way to weather this storm long term,

So, I look at the cost of my MFs, and now many nights I can get and to be honest, even if the parks remain as they are, I’m still getting a good value for vacations visiting WDW.
 
  • mlayton14

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 9, 2006
    I suppose the fear is that Disney stops investing in the parks To the level that is needed. Think about it - they were making money hand over fist over the past 10 years and we got reduced park hours , reduced extra magic hours , Loss of nighttime parade, out of control crowding, and further reductions in food quality. Now that profits will take a ginormous hit which no one could dispute , what should we expect in terms of quality over the years to come ? More cost cutting? Putting a hold on new projects? What will make people coming back? Where will the profits for shareholders come from?
     

    Great3

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jan 20, 2015
    New CEO always equal to some sort of cost cutting. It’s how they make their initial impact, and now they have their perfect excuse. Due to effects of Coronavirus, we had to... (you fill in the blanks).

    Great3
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    Keep in mind the DVC deed completely divorces your real estate interest from the parks. Disney like DVC because it guarantees them upkeep funds for the impacted resorts.

    A lot of long term DVC members spend a lot less time in the parks overall than someone new to the system might imagine.
     

    Deb & Bill

    DVC-Trivia Contest, Apr-2006: Honorable Mention
    Joined
    Mar 20, 2000
    We had a three night trip in late January and only went to a park on our arrival day.
     

    Lorana

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jan 30, 2001
    I suppose the fear is that Disney stops investing in the parks To the level that is needed. Think about it - they were making money hand over fist over the past 10 years and we got reduced park hours , reduced extra magic hours , Loss of nighttime parade, out of control crowding, and further reductions in food quality. Now that profits will take a ginormous hit which no one could dispute , what should we expect in terms of quality over the years to come ? More cost cutting? Putting a hold on new projects? What will make people coming back? Where will the profits for shareholders come from?
    Part of it was that they were making money hand over fist. Parks were crowded and they saw opportunities to make more money — and all the reduced benefits and extra costs didn’t new people away.

    If the economy turns? And people are more selective about where they spend their vacation money? Maybe we’ll see a return to “making magic happen” as they realize they’ll need more than “its Disney” to convince people to spend a lot of money here?

    Or maybe I’m just too hopeful that we’ll see a focus back on what makes Disney unique.
     

    Heather07438

    WDW Apprentice
    Joined
    Oct 20, 2015
    What was planned for the 50th Anni will likely change now. Things that were slated over the next 5 years might be reduced or cut. What will Universal decide about going forward with Epic Universe. I cant see Reflections proceeding. Spaceship Earth may have to wait.

    WDW is in a rough spot. Expendable cash will be down from the past few years. The current prices could be way out of line with what people will pay after taking huge hits to their assets. Vacation budgets will be reduced. Prices for other travel options will be reduced. Serious offers could be needed to stay competitive and get chuggin' along again.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see free regular DDP with Moderates or 35-40% off rooms again. DVC looks interesting after people realize 2 things: They plan on revisiting WDW often and DVC is a good value compared to other options. For the next couple years, many people won't be planning frequent visits. They'll see substantial offers elsewhere when they do look to visit. Less people are going to be attracted to DVC under a bad economy. Depending how the dust settles, maybe they help pump the resale market back up by reinstating certain incentives.

    Hopefully it's just part of the cycle and we see WDW & DVC strong again sometime soon.
     

    mamaofsix

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 8, 2017
    What was planned for the 50th Anni will likely change now. Things that were slated over the next 5 years might be reduced or cut. What will Universal decide about going forward with Epic Universe. I cant see Reflections proceeding. Spaceship Earth may have to wait.

    WDW is in a rough spot. Expendable cash will be down from the past few years. The current prices could be way out of line with what people will pay after taking huge hits to their assets. Vacation budgets will be reduced. Prices for other travel options will be reduced. Serious offers could be needed to stay competitive and get chuggin' along again.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see free regular DDP with Moderates or 35-40% off rooms again. DVC looks interesting after people realize 2 things: They plan on revisiting WDW often and DVC is a good value compared to other options. For the next couple years, many people won't be planning frequent visits. They'll see substantial offers elsewhere when they do look to visit. Less people are going to be attracted to DVC under a bad economy. Depending how the dust settles, maybe they help pump the resale market back up by reinstating certain incentives.

    Hopefully it's just part of the cycle and we see WDW & DVC strong again sometime soon.
    You really think they'll scrap Reflections?! I could understand that they stop announced projects that haven't yet begun, like Mary Poppins / Cherry Tree Lane and some of the Epcot plusses. But aren't they already too far into the Reflections project to halt it?

    Maybe it's just me being wishful, as I was really looking forward to that resort...
     

    MonkeyKnifeFight

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jul 9, 2019
    You really think they'll scrap Reflections?! I could understand that they stop announced projects that haven't yet begun, like Mary Poppins / Cherry Tree Lane and some of the Epcot plusses. But aren't they already too far into the Reflections project to halt it?

    Maybe it's just me being wishful, as I was really looking forward to that resort...
    Art of animation had multiple buildings structure done and they halted it for over a decade after 9/11.
     

    MICKIMINI

    Love the Mouse!
    Joined
    Sep 6, 2003
    This is a difficult time, no doubt....but as far as Disney goes, they are about good show. Behind the scenes there are probably lots of hard decisions being made, but for those of us DVC members that love Disney we'll come back, have more fun, stay longer, in bigger villas and be sure to tip better. We made it through 9/11 and 2008 and things were different. We adjusted. Yes, things will change everywhere - even Disney, but Disney will still be there for us. Honestly, I think it is time for focusing on the positive, doing what is right, helping our neighbors and counting down the days until we walk down Main Street again! :smickey:
     

    Lorana

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jan 30, 2001
    Art of animation had multiple buildings structure done and they halted it for over a decade after 9/11.
    what became Art of Animation was actually originally a second half of Pop Century, featuring the “legendary years” (which is why the bridge was named “the Generation Gap”), featuring the first half of the twentieth century. So, yes, my fear is they’ll halt Reflections and the DL DVC hotel.
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    what became Art of Animation was actually originally a second half of Pop Century, featuring the “legendary years” (which is why the bridge was named “the Generation Gap”), featuring the first half of the twentieth century. So, yes, my fear is they’ll halt Reflections and the DL DVC hotel.
    The DL DVC is not approved by Anaheim or even scheduled for public hearings. So it was already dubious.
     

    Lumpy1106

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 2, 2010
    Just my speculation, but I think Reflections will be put on hold and DLH planning will continue. The costs associated with getting approval are not that great, and there is a much bigger demand @ DL.
     

    MonkeyKnifeFight

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jul 9, 2019
    what became Art of Animation was actually originally a second half of Pop Century, featuring the “legendary years” (which is why the bridge was named “the Generation Gap”), featuring the first half of the twentieth century. So, yes, my fear is they’ll halt Reflections and the DL DVC hotel.
    Yeah its a really interesting story I ran across a few months back on youtube. Then I saw it mentioned in the imaginary story too. I wouldn't be surprised to see new hotels put on hold. Hopefully not for as long as the pop century/art of animation was.
     

    bookwormde

    <font color=darkorchid>Heading out now, another ad
    Joined
    Mar 16, 2008
    DVC has such a high revenue to cost ratio that while it will be delayed some, it will likely be one the last investments to be put on a longer term hold.

    While significantly slower than otherwise BLT and THV still sold at a fair pace during and after the great recession
     

    TraderSamWDW

    The Head Salesman
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2020
    what became Art of Animation was actually originally a second half of Pop Century, featuring the “legendary years” (which is why the bridge was named “the Generation Gap”), featuring the first half of the twentieth century. So, yes, my fear is they’ll halt Reflections and the DL DVC hotel.
    Just my speculation, but I think Reflections will be put on hold and DLH planning will continue. The costs associated with getting approval are not that great, and there is a much bigger demand @ DL.
    I cant seem them not delaying Reflections, but its all based on DRR sales. The opening date of that is very tightly coupled to when they see DRR selling out. -something I am sure they will reevaluate throughout this year.
    Reflections will be ready to go just as DRR is crossing the 90% sold threshold, give or take.
     

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