Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Chili327]

Awhile back, Disney submitted some paperwork showing 1 or maybe it was 2 floors. Someone analyzed that information and used it for all but the top 2 floors. They counted 262 rooms. Disney has indicated 270 keys, so it is highly likely there will be 8 rooms on those two floors. Do they have room for 8 two story GVs? Could it be 4 GVs and 4 other rooms on that floor?

Something I just realized with the overhang. I believe the wider area is the direction storms typically come from. We experienced hurricane bands while there and the winds and rain definitely came from that direction.

I really hope there’s some kind of lounge or restaurant with a view.

Is it too much to hope that maybe they’d add a concierge level like at AKV? ;-)

Yep, club level would make sense up there to be different than regular room types.

 

[Phijammamama]

I think it’s disappointing that DVD is being so wish washy. Guide have been told to refer only to what legal has given them and it’s strange ethst some have gone beyond that

As I shared, they will not go beyond confirmed that in December the current plan was PVB, but every person I have interacted with has not gone beyond that and also made sure I understood that it as said “the plan right now” so it was subject to change.

Now, not saying it will, but when you get reports like above it tells you DVd is still content to let speculation occur thst things could end up different.

The piece I think is very interesting is the they did let someone buy a resale at $112/point and that blows my mind that if status quo happens, that they allowed it go that low.

This is the biggest ??? I have with the whole thing. If DVC is hell bent on crushing resale, why on earth would they allow resale in at such low prices to one of their premier resorts? Makes no sense.

Also, I am seeing Poly listed in the add on tool page, so I’m confused about sales halting. Anyone?

 

[Leia's Mom]

Yep, club level would make sense up there to be different than regular room types.

This would be great. Suck up more points so they don’t do anything to disadvantage the owners who bought for the existing studios and continue to want to book there. . . It will probably end out to my advantage, but I’m worried about the tower. I bought to be close to the TTC for RunDisney events.

 

[Sandisw]

This is the biggest ??? I have with the whole thing. If DVC is hell bent on crushing resale, why on earth would they allow resale in at such low prices to one of their premier resorts? Makes no sense.

Also, I am seeing Poly listed in the add on tool page, so I’m confused about sales halting. Anyone?

Which is why some of the info I have gotten makes me still wonder if we are in for some surprises, because I too can’t believe they are going to pass that up.

They just let a PVB pass at $112/point snd if the plan announced in December does not change…which guides and sales people are always quick to point out that it could when I ask…then it seems counterproductive, especially that the CFW was not given great incentives.

 

[wilkydelts]

Is there information or documents anywhere that indicate the whole building will be DVC? If not that could be an interesting play that the smaller rooms are hotel and the bigger rooms go to balance out Poly.

 

[Cabius]

If DVC is hell bent on crushing resale

My read is that they are not 'hell bent on crushing resale'. They are hell-bent on maximizing direct sales, which is related, but different. Most of the time, the outcomes are the same, but maybe not always. There's tension there.

They'll want to keep a high floor on resale prices, both because it makes resale less attractive to potential buyers and because it improves the value of the product itself. DVC resale value is a nice selling point for them! That points toward exercising RofR on low-priced contracts.

But on the other hand, they don't want to be flooded with inventory. They're about to have a LOT of points to sell without having to spend their own money re-buying contracts. Buying points at $112 and re-selling them at $250 is a no-brainer, unless you already have tons of points 'for free'. That points toward exercising less RofR.

Ultimately, I wouldn't read too terribly much into a single contract. Maybe they were told not to buy any PVB because they have upcoming inventory. Maybe they'll get more active if average prices dip below a certain level. But I don't think it is determinative.

 

[Sykes]

Which is why some of the info I have gotten makes me still wonder if we are in for some surprises, because I too can’t believe they are going to pass that up.

IMO, almost 10 years shorter on the deed expiration has a monumentally higher impact on Disney’s financials than resale restrictions do. Reversionary timeshare interests are recognized over the length of the contract so Disney gets to recognize the revenue 20% faster (i.e. 20% more revenue per year) if the contract is 40 years rather than 50 years. Disney has plenty of incentive to make it the same association. It doesn’t mean it is a done deal, but the financial incentives are greatly aligned to making it the same association.

Edited to add: Having said that, there’s nothing that stops them from creating a new association with the same end-date as PVB, but I don’t think that’s a path that most here are contemplating.

 

[disneydad7281231]

Which is why some of the info I have gotten makes me still wonder if we are in for some surprises, because I too can’t believe they are going to pass that up.

They just let a PVB pass at $112/point snd if the plan announced in December does not change…which guides and sales people are always quick to point out that it could when I ask…then it seems counterproductive, especially that the CFW was not given great incentives.

My $112 wasn't even the lowest... $110 for 275 points just passed too.

That is really the only thing that makes me doubt it will be tied in the the OG Poly. Unless they are about to put the hammer down.

I am also curious if the amount of rooms comes into play. Before the VGF expansion they had half the amount of rooms that Poly has currently so does that play into the about of points they sell per resort? Still new to this so there might be answer to that or it might not be a factor.

 

[Sandisw]

IMO, almost 10 years shorter on the deed expiration has a monumentally higher impact on Disney’s financials than resale restrictions do. Reversionary timeshare interests are recognized over the length of the contract so Disney gets to recognize the revenue 20% faster (i.e. 20% more revenue per year) if the contract is 40 years rather than 50 years. Disney has plenty of incentive to make it the same association. It doesn’t mean it is a done deal, but the financial incentives are greatly aligned to making it the same association.

Can’t say that I agree with that.

 

[disneydad7281231]

My read is that they are not 'hell bent on crushing resale'. They are hell-bent on maximizing direct sales, which is related, but different. Most of the time, the outcomes are the same, but maybe not always. There's tension there.

They'll want to keep a high floor on resale prices, both because it makes resale less attractive to potential buyers and because it improves the value of the product itself. DVC resale value is a nice selling point for them! That points toward exercising RofR on low-priced contracts.

But on the other hand, they don't want to be flooded with inventory. They're about to have a LOT of points to sell without having to spend their own money re-buying contracts. Buying points at $112 and re-selling them at $250 is a no-brainer, unless you already have tons of points 'for free'. That points toward exercising less RofR.

Ultimately, I wouldn't read too terribly much into a single contract. Maybe they were told not to buy any PVB because they have upcoming inventory. Maybe they'll get more active if average prices dip below a certain level. But I don't think it is determinative.

I agree. With the new building they could have a ton of NEW poly inventory to sell. They ROFR buy back could happen if they NEW sells like crazy and basically see what is happening with VGF.

 

[mkatsy]

At the end of the day, your stock does not end up in the toilet standing on the shoulders of great financial decisions. Peltz is accusing Disney of “ambiguous communication” … can anyone even remotely interested in Poly Tower claim that they have received clear, consistent communication regarding the Tower? Everything I have seen is ambiguous at best, and they flat out refuse to acknowledge DVC member requests for clarity regarding the condominium meeting. So Peltz is not wrong there. He is also accusing them of subpar ROIC returns, claiming that they don’t even make back at the same rate that it costs to borrow the money for the project. I have no idea if this is even true. I’m not a shareholder, I own poly resale, so I benefit from Disney snubbing their shareholders by making it the same association. At this point though, it feels like we are in Magic 8 ball territory and logic really isn’t a factor in the Poly Tower decision … if it is, once again (as accused) they are not communicating.

 

[Cfabar1]

Basically every resale contract sold since 2019 will be significantly restricted after 2042.the degree of restrictions will vary from resort to resort and the utility of your exchange value as a resale owner will significantly decrease. (To some extent as a direct owner the utility and ease of exchange I think will likely be problematic as well).

I think being able to have as short a contract length as possible for a marquee resort like Poly is in Disneys interest more than the nebulous and difficult to quantify gain they might get by having the points restricted.

At this point you have to assume that post 2042 you will basically be at your home resort and buy accordingly.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Basically every resale contract sold since 2019 will be significantly restricted after 2042.the degree of restrictions will vary from resort to resort and the utility of your exchange value as a resale owner will significantly decrease. (To some extent as a direct owner the utility and ease of exchange I think will likely be problematic as well).

I think being able to have as short a contract length as possible for a marquee resort like Poly is in Disneys interest more than the nebulous and difficult to quantify gain they might get by having the points restricted.

At this point you have to assume that post 2042 you will basically be at your home resort and buy accordingly.

I agree with the overall takeaway (why we have been willing to pay a $20-40 premium for direct points, but not a $150 premium at BCV, lol)... but I think that having the option to use resale points at AUL, VGC, AKV, PVB and VGF still adds a lot of flexibility and value until about 2060 (yes, AKV expires at 2057 but so does OKW and SSR will be gone, so you'll actually only have the higher demand resorts swapping around). I don't think anybody should buy somewhere they wouldn't be happy to stay, but having the option to use them occasionally at different resorts matters a lot to me when pricing resale options.

 

[Chili327]

DVC resale value is a nice selling point for them!

It used to have more value & every new resort with restrictions takes that value down a notch.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Basically every resale contract sold since 2019 will be significantly restricted after 2042.the degree of restrictions will vary from resort to resort and the utility of your exchange value as a resale owner will significantly decrease. (To some extent as a direct owner the utility and ease of exchange I think will likely be problematic as well).

I think being able to have as short a contract length as possible for a marquee resort like Poly is in Disneys interest more than the nebulous and difficult to quantify gain they might get by having the points restricted.

At this point you have to assume that post 2042 you will basically be at your home resort and buy accordingly.

That's pretty doom and gloom and unlikely. The 2042 resorts, 2 which are offsite, drop off for everyone and the points from those 2042 will also be gone and not attempting to exchange. There will be SSR, OKW, AKV, BLT, VGF, PVB, CCV, AUL and VGC still left for the post 2019 resales. So in a little less than 2 decades some will end and the next to drop off will be the largest, SSR, a little more than a decade later or 30 years from now. When I initially purchased there were 7 total resorts. After 2042 there be 9 available to the 2019 resale restrictions. Different perspective I guess.

 

[Sandisw]

That's pretty doom and gloom and unlikely. The 2042 resorts, 2 which are offsite, drop off for everyone and the points from those 2042 will also be gone and not attempting to exchange. There will be SSR, OKW, AKV, BLT, VGF, PVB, CCV, AUL and VGC still left for the post 2019 resales. So in a little less than 2 decades some will end and the next to drop off will be the largest, SSR, a little more than a decade later or 30 years from now. When I initially purchased there were 7 total resorts. After 2042 there be 9 available to the 2019 resale restrictions. Different perspective I guess.

While there will still be what you mention, I think the issue that could happen is how much more difficult certain resorts become because of the imbalance with some of the less popular resorts against those more popular ones.

I think we can pretty much support that more SSR and maybe AKV trade out than those that trade in so it appears more will be competing for those near park resorts.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, especially since I think they are going to shift things moving forward…at the very least after Poly tower.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

So is the conventional wisdom that 4/1 is a big reveal day for something to be learned when the new incentives come out and they’re not selling PVB direct?

 

[Cfabar1]

So is the conventional wisdom that 4/1 is a big reveal day for something to be learned when the new incentives come out and they’re not selling PVB direct?

That sounds a bit earlier I think than many would have expected, but who knows....

 

[PolyRob]

Is there information or documents anywhere that indicate the whole building will be DVC? If not that could be an interesting play that the smaller rooms are hotel and the bigger rooms go to balance out Poly.

I don't think Disney wants to add Poly cash inventory after offloading half the resort to DVC in the past 10 years. Disney keeps dumping room inventory to DVC (like the Cabins) vs developing new cash inventory.

 

[PolyRob]

So is the conventional wisdom that 4/1 is a big reveal day for something to be learned when the new incentives come out and they’re not selling PVB direct?

This will be a fun April Fools' Day joke!