latest thoughts on Ivan?

[Leigh123]

First off god bless FL residents for what they have endured and we pray for everyone's safety concerning Ivan. We are due to fly in around 2:00 on 9/12.....what is anyone's latest guess on IVAN having any impact on WDW? I am so confused on all the reports I can't figure out what's going on....thanks in advance.

 

[DukeStreetKing]

It's still too early to tell where it might hit land, if at all. Keep listening to and reading the latest updates.

 

[Dizzy4Dizney]

Here's the latest projected map. Let's hope it fizzels.

 

[CoolBreeze]

In taking a peek at the NOAA site this morning, it appears that IVAN is acting much like Charley did. A B-Line over Jamaica, straight over Cuba, Key West (by 2 a.m. Monday) and possibly into Florida's Gulf Coast someplace Monday night into Tuesday morning.

This storm all but destroyed Grenada.

I read the update with utter disbelief.

Good luck to you and I share my prayers to all those effected by the first 3 storms this year. May God bless you all.

 

[K9pal]

We're leaving Friday as well, keeping an eye on Ivan but not worried about him. First, it's too early. Second, looks like the most we can expect from this one is a bit of rain, if that.

Have a safe trip!

 

[whitley949]

Please keep your intellegence gathering on Ivan with the experts. i.e. The Weather channel and the Noaa site. I prefer the Noaa site as it updates at 5am, 11pm and 11am. This is coming from actual experts. While everyone on here means well, I would bet than none are experts and are not in the least qualified to give there "guesses" on what Ivan is is is not going to do. Now, some may have expereince, but there is a difference between experience and expert opinions. Don't get worked up by all the armchair meteorlogists on this site. Stay positive, enjoy your vacation it will all work out.

 

[DB Washington]

I think the last post was right on, listen to the experts.

Not an expert opinion: I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life, Hurricanes are very unpredictable events. Orlando is not on the coast, the worst that could happen is there would be terrible rain and winds for a day, you'll be inside and then you can get on with your vacation. The majority of impactful damage that happens with a hurricane is related to flooding from the coast and the rain and tornadoes that spin off the edge of the hurricane. I don't think WDW has ever flooded (maybe some of you folks can correct me if I am wrong) and tornadoes can occur during a thunderstorm without a hurricane, so there is no point worrying about it.

My sister and I went in September 2002 when a hurricane was predicted to hit Florida. The hurricane went elsewhere and fizzled out due to an unexpected cool front. The crowds were as light as I have ever seen them. Low crowds coupled with great weather made this one of our best WDW trips ever. Best wishes to you on your trip.

 

[F5CHASER]

As a degreed meteorologist, I can say that the track of Ivan is very difficult to get a hold on. The numerical-based computer models are all over the place on a forecast for Ivan. I happen to believe that Florida will probably be in the clear on Ivan as Ivan will more likely affect the central or western Gulf Coast such as New orleans or some of the TX gulf cities.

That being said, Floridians still need to keep a watchful eye and pay attention to Ivan.

 

[panthergirl]

I have to politely disagree with the poster who said Orlando is safe because it is inland. I live in Charlotte N.C. which is a good 4 hours from the coast. Hurricane Hugo did a number on us and we all learned a lesson about being prepared. It certainly is comparitively safer to be inland vs being on the coast but not a good idea to get too complacent even hundreds of miles from the ocean.

 

[SoCalKDG]

The Weather channel and the Noaa site. I prefer the Noaa site as it updates at 5am, 11pm and 11am. This is coming from actual experts. While everyone on here means well, I would bet than none are experts and are not in the least qualified to give there "guesses" on what Ivan is is is not going to do. Now, some may have expereince, but there is a difference between experience and expert opinions. Don't get worked up by all the armchair meteorlogists on this site.

I didn't know expert and meteorologist could be used in the same sentance.No offense F5CHASER.

As mentioned both sites use computers to run numerous simulations of what to expect. What you see listed is the average of all these simulations, with large variations in both directions.

Additionally each time the hurricane goes over larger land masses there is a chance that the intensity of the hurricane will drop. With wind and temp. changes, variation can be dramatic. By Friday the chart above will have changed.

 

[dlrhine]

I would hate to see FL get hit again, the poor residents. We are scheduled to leave on the 18th...I need a peaceful vacation and I need to see my best friend who lives in orlando and works for AKL after all they have been through. I don't want her to ride out another one.
Keep our fingers cross.

 

[safetymom]

I live in Central Florida and the eye of Hurricane Charley passed over our county. So being inland doesn't mean you can escape the hurricane.

It hadn't come that way for 40 years but it can happen. Frances was so large it affected the whole state.

 

[crow11ad]

I called this mornng to make PS and was talking with the CM and they said that the latest they heard that it is supposed to hit to the west.

 

[CJK]

All the conflicting reports are driving me crazy. I'm worried about Florida as a whole and selfishly, am worried about our trip. However, we can postpone/cancel whereas Floridians can't move their houses. Continued prayers.........

 

[SnackyStacky]

Originally posted by DB Washington
I think the last post was right on, listen to the experts.

Not an expert opinion: I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life, Hurricanes are very unpredictable events. Orlando is not on the coast, the worst that could happen is there would be terrible rain and winds for a day, you'll be inside and then you can get on with your vacation. The majority of impactful damage that happens with a hurricane is related to flooding from the coast and the rain and tornadoes that spin off the edge of the hurricane. I don't think WDW has ever flooded (maybe some of you folks can correct me if I am wrong) and tornadoes can occur during a thunderstorm without a hurricane, so there is no point worrying about it.

My sister and I went in September 2002 when a hurricane was predicted to hit Florida. The hurricane went elsewhere and fizzled out due to an unexpected cool front. The crowds were as light as I have ever seen them. Low crowds coupled with great weather made this one of our best WDW trips ever. Best wishes to you on your trip.

We were there too!!!! My now-wife and I! It was labor day week!

 

[tarmand]

Originally posted by F5CHASER
As a degreed meteorologist, I can say that the track of Ivan is very difficult to get a hold on. The numerical-based computer models are all over the place on a forecast for Ivan. I happen to believe that Florida will probably be in the clear on Ivan as Ivan will more likely affect the central or western Gulf Coast such as New orleans or some of the TX gulf cities.

That being said, Floridians still need to keep a watchful eye and pay attention to Ivan.

Okay, I have been praying that it doesn't hit Florida, but I didn't want it to come to Louisiana!!!!

 

[teachingmykids]

I just called and moved everything back a week.
They were all very nice in letting me reschedule -- they didn't have to, I had pre-paid (no refund) ressies.
I certainly hope Ivan misses them, but like tarmand, we don't want it in La either.

 

[angey77]

Originally posted by tarmand
Okay, I have been praying that it doesn't hit Florida, but I didn't want it to come to Louisiana!!!!

I second that! And if it does come, please don't affect the LSU game Saturday or me leaving for Disney for my wedding planning trip Thursday, 9/16!

 

[BrianD]

As has been stated before it is still too early to really tell where exactly this storm will go. It is very difficult to forecast a hurricane's path beyond 72 hours. At this point, nobody along the entire gulf coast is out of the woods yet.

 

[Samirella]

Originally posted by DB Washington
I think the last post was right on, listen to the experts.

Not an expert opinion: I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life, Hurricanes are very unpredictable events. Orlando is not on the coast, the worst that could happen is there would be terrible rain and winds for a day, you'll be inside and then you can get on with your vacation. The majority of impactful damage that happens with a hurricane is related to flooding from the coast and the rain and tornadoes that spin off the edge of the hurricane. I don't think WDW has ever flooded (maybe some of you folks can correct me if I am wrong) and tornadoes can occur during a thunderstorm without a hurricane, so there is no point worrying about it.

I'm guessing, you being in Texas, that you haven't driven around Florida in the past couple days and seen the damage. I think if you did you wouldn't be saying there was no point worrying about it.

To the original poster: Keep an eye on this storm. It is following the same track Charley did but the forecasters don't know where it will go, regardless of their expert status. Come to Florida, enjoy your vacation. If Ivan does come our way, Walt Disney World is the safest place you'll find in the area.