There are a couple of fish storms in the Atlantic, but the projection for the Gulf development is being targeted as a tropical rain maker with associated winds (50% development as of this timestamp). The local news stated it would be a CAT 1 at most. IIRC, Helena was a 40% development projection with it possibly being a CAT 1 or low-level CAT 2 at most.
After 20 years living here in central Florida, I have for the past decade bump the intensity level by a factor of 2. Unfortunately, more often than not, it seems to be the case.