Keeping an eye on Tropical Weather 2024

[MouseMamaToMany]

I’m there 11/16-11/22. I have a friend sending me all sorts of weather reports. It’s too early to know if I should change anything right?

Same dates and same boat as you. Gah! Whyyyy? I’m holding steady and not changing plans just yet. Hoping the worm will shift enough that it won’t be too much of an issue.

 

[PhillyAli20]

Same dates and same boat as you. Gah! Whyyyy? I’m holding steady and not changing plans just yet. Hoping the worm will shift enough that it won’t be too much of an issue.

I shifted some lightning lanes to make Wednesday a resort/rest day. But I’ll keep my fingers crossed for both of us that all works out!

 

[FutureDis]

Ugh.... I head there on Saturday and looks like this may hit smack in the middle of my trip (16th-22nd). Will try to enjoy what I can!

 

[hertamaniac]

To me, the goal posts are moving. We started with a record-breaking CAT 5 to kick-off the season and now, although not projected to be the latest hurricane (by date) to hit Florida, it wouldn't surprise me that Dec. 5-8th becomes the new norm for the end of hurricane season.

I said it many times before, I add 2 categories to whatever is predicted this far out at landfall. I was wrong with Beryl as that jumped 3 categories from ~1 week projection.

 

[fla4fun]

First NHC cone . . .

 

[Minnie1222]

I dodged Helene and Milton thanks to this board. Now I need your help again. We're planning to fly in this Friday 11/15 and fly out Monday 11/18 at  night. Are we cutting close? I'm worried the Monday flight may be canceled. I don't want to come Friday night and have to leave Sunday morning. Maybe I should postpone the trip?

 

[Mombaker]

I dodged Helene and Milton thanks to this board. Now I need your help again. We're planning to fly in this Friday 11/15 and fly out Monday 11/18 at  night. Are we cutting close? I'm worried the Monday flight may be canceled. I don't want to come Friday night and have to leave Sunday morning. Maybe I should postpone the trip?

I think you’ll be fine. I have family choosing to fly out Tuesday based on their preferred news channel. I think it’ll still be in the gulf on Monday.

 

[wabbott]

This is my go-to site for weather everywhere. Every radar, every prediction, every forecast is here.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

[msmayor]

I dodged Helene and Milton thanks to this board. Now I need your help again. We're planning to fly in this Friday 11/15 and fly out Monday 11/18 at  night. Are we cutting close? I'm worried the Monday flight may be canceled. I don't want to come Friday night and have to leave Sunday morning. Maybe I should postpone the trip?

If you look at the current cone predictions, it's still well away from FL on Monday.

I arrive tomorrow and fly out Monday night as well....not at all concerned.

 

[Selket]

We're supposed to fly in next Wednesday (20th) afternoon & have the MVMCP tickets for the 21st. I'm thinking about flying down a day early on Tuesday instead but it's more expensive for sure. Unfortunately the longer I wait to see where this storm goes, the more expensive it is to change my flight.

Not a thread I was hoping to post in this year!

 

[hertamaniac]

It looks like, as of this timestamp, that the storm will interact with Mexico as more likely. The prediction I saw shows it as a weakened system if/when entering the Gulf.

 

[MouseMamaToMany]

It looks like, as of this timestamp, that the storm will interact with Mexico as more likely. The prediction I saw shows it as a weakened system if/when entering the Gulf.

View attachment 913040

Yes. This is what I’m reading in multiple sites as well. It looks like there is a slightly better chance that this storm won’t be a huge impact to Florida if it moves closer to Central America as shown here. Truly didn’t think I’d be storm watching for a trip the week before Thanksgiving.

 

[Leigh L]

We're supposed to fly in next Wednesday (20th) afternoon & have the MVMCP tickets for the 21st. I'm thinking about flying down a day early on Tuesday instead but it's more expensive for sure. Unfortunately the longer I wait to see where this storm goes, the more expensive it is to change my flight.

Not a thread I was hoping to post in this year!

We just moved DD from Wed to Tues since I was flying in on Tuesday anyway with another airline.

She'd booked on points, so that wasn't a big deal, but in the 4 hours I waited to make a decision yesterday it jumped up $80 for the one-way flight on the other airline I was on lol

 

[fla4fun]

Spaghetti models still all over the place, but at this time it is looking more like a rain maker for Wednesday than a hurricane. I hope it stays that way, but it’s still to early to know for sure.

 

[fla4fun]

Local news this evening saying Wednesday will be a very rainy day, up to five inches in some areas, but no tropical wind. Storm is expected to weaken significantly over Mexico and Central America. They are continuing to monitor it.

 

[lovethattink]

It’s expected to fizzle out. Bringing rain to Florida on Wednesday or Thursday. Though that could change.

 

[Dave006]

TS Sara is expected to die over the Yucatan and the weather pattern will move into Mexico. The impact to Florida is that conditions will not be favorable in the Gulf of Mexico for future tropical redevelopment.

However, the moisture will get pulled into a strong cold front that will move through Florida Wednesday and early Thursday, enhancing our rainfall then.

Dave

 

[lovethattink]

I’m going to go with Denis’ photo of no development for the next 7 months and move this thread over to the TPAS community board. Enjoy the cold front while it lasts! Thank you all for your input this year.