Just for fun: Let's speculate on future DVC resale value

[KelNottAt]

With DS in 8th grade, paying for college is becoming a serious consideration for us. And, although we’ve got more saved than most people I know (enough for 4 years public in-state), I’m starting to wonder about "what ifs" that could set us back. If worse came to worse, I have to accept that we might have to sell DVC for the sake of college expenses.

In today’s market, our 305 BWV points could get us $25,620. That’s $84 pp; we paid $72 in 2003. Anyone care to venture a guess what these points could be worth 5 or 6 years from now? About the same? More? Less? Also, what about the other resorts?

Since it wouldn't be fair to ask your opinions without giving mine, I’ll go out on a limb and predict their resale price per point will be around $94 in 2012.

 

[shellbelle1971]

SSR from DVC in 2005: $83.30 per point.
OKW resale in 2005: $75.00 per point
DVC resale in 2012: $0.00 (since I wouldn't sell it...)
Memories of 7 years of magical vacations: priceless.

Seriously, I can't wait to see what everyone else thinks.

Michelle

 

[Daitcher]

5 or 6 years from now I'll bet the prices start to drop on resales of the older DVC Resorts. Waht would you buy a new 50 year contract or one with only 30 years of use for relatively the same price. 10 years out they will really drop. Who will want a resale with only 30 or so years worth of use? Probably many but not as many as right now. Less demand means less dollars. There will be a breaking point with these contacts. We can all only guess when that point will occur. SSR has a long time before there values fall but the older DVC resorts like OKW, BWV the time is drawing nearer and nearer. I know DVC has inflated the resale values by exercising ROFR. How much longer they do that is anyone's guess. If you need the money don't wait to long.


DAVE

 

[DVCPAT]

If Disney continues to be a top vacation destination, the older contacts resale price will correlate with Disney’s deluxe rack rates. I think a 10-year contract would be a great option for a young family. The majority of the population doesn’t want to vacation at WDW for the next 50 years.

If in 2025, the BWV rack rate is $ 800.00 per night for a studio, think of how much money you could rent your points for.

 

[Dean]

It large part it will depend on whether DVC is still building and selling along with the ROFR. Assuming DVC is done with selling by the time the older resorts are under 30 years, the price will slowly but steadily decline. Same will be the case but to a lessor degree if DVC is still selling and exercising the ROFR. The real question to me is how high will it go in the interim.