June 2025 Direct Sales Numbers In

[kilik64]

It is possible. I don't think it is likely.

However, I sometimes ask my students whether or not the sun has gone supernova. The correct answer is always "I don't know," so I get it.

I'd be the smart butt and say ask me again in about 8 mins.

 

[maui22]

It is possible. I don't think it is likely.

However, I sometimes ask my students whether or not the sun has gone supernova. The correct answer is always "I don't know," so I get it.

I'm in the camp that agrees with you it's a guide stretching the truth.

I showed the points sold at various points to try to show it's unlikely. Obviously, I did a poor job.
Easier explanation...
Declared 535k mid May.
Sell maybe 120k in the 3 months since then.
Declare another ~400K? Possible, but unlikely.

IF final declaration comment is legitimate...
If you can't fill the parks and go after locals via the AP offer, isn't it likely hotel bookings are down? Make the final declaration and start telling people it's about to be sold out. FOMO is a sales tactic.

 

[kilik64]

Edit: Disney can declare points at any time. They could even say a resort is sold out at any time. That does not mean they have actually sold 98% of all points for the resort. They could decide they want to keep 5%, 10%, etc. As an example, I believe BWV still has a room they can use to show people. That means they never sold those points in that room.

Yea the law wording from my understanding is they have to keep at LEAST 2%, doesn't mean they cant keep more.

If RIV rents from Disney as well as its said to, they might want to keep a larger percent of it?

I would guess they declare it sold out with the next 1m sold to get that 5% left over number hit. So 20 months left give or take based on current sales per month.

 

[Mouseforward]

Summer used to be a peak season for WDW... it just isn't anymore... I think the points charts may eventually be redone to reference this... I think summer is priced too high and other times like January and early December are priced too low based on the demand I see...

Boardwalk already started , I think we’ll see more next year as there wasn’t much outcry

 

[Mouseforward]

I’ve always heard the rumor that CCV never really sold out. I wasn’t tracking things at the time, but people said it kind of went from 90%to sold out very quickly.

 

[Girlstar30]

I'm in the camp that agrees with you it's a guide stretching the truth.

I showed the points sold at various points to try to show it's unlikely. Obviously, I did a poor job.
Easier explanation...
Declared 535k mid May.
Sell maybe 120k in the 3 months since then.
Declare another ~400K? Possible, but unlikely.

IF final declaration comment is legitimate...
If you can't fill the parks and go after locals via the AP offer, isn't it likely hotel bookings are down? Make the final declaration and start telling people it's about to be sold out. FOMO is a sales tactic.

It is because i got confused and yall had me thinking i need to buy now

 

[Brian Noble]

I'd be the smart butt and say ask me again in about 8 mins.

Ah, but you still won't know, because it may have changed! You could only tell me it didn't, not that it hasn't. (This turns out to be a pretty important concept in distributed systems...)

 

[AstroBlasters]

I've been tracking flights and tickets for April 2026, for a few months now and prices on them have all dropped, especially the flights to MCO.

I just went and looked at direct flights in economy plus…. I’m going to put this in the “no way in H E Double Hockey Sticks” category.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I just went and looked at direct flights in economy plus…. I’m going to put this in the “no way in H E Double Hockey Sticks” category.

Yeah flight costs for me for sure have not went down, to FL or to CA. Im trying to book for October and it's $270 on the extreme budget airlines to CA and Im under a 2 hour flight away.

 

[RichVIII]

And it seems like the “we will sell you 25 points at resorts we said we would only sell you 50 at” makes me think there is softness.

 

[DVCKing]

So if we don’t add on now maybe that will make the next round drop more

 

[pzw90]

And it seems like the “we will sell you 25 points at resorts we said we would only sell you 50 at” makes me think there is softness.

Wonder if we see the 150pt threshold for direct benefits ever reduced. Doubtful but some can dream.

 

[AstroBlasters]

And it seems like the “we will sell you 25 points at resorts we said we would only sell you 50 at” makes me think there is softness.

They raised the ppp so darn high….

 

[Patmcpsu]

I've been tracking flights and tickets for April 2026, for a few months now and prices on them have all dropped, especially the flights to MCO.

April is ~9 months away, and airfares that far in the future are usually like a hotel's "rack rate" (an elevated placeholder, way more than most people spend). It is lucrative to use frequent flyer miles for bookings that far in advance, though.

According to Google's AI, the best time to book domestic flights (I presume with actual money, not miles) is "1 to 3 months before departure". I would personally err towards 3 months.

 

[Brian Noble]

Interestingly, the quarterly report narratives from Delta and (I think?) United were both pretty positive compared to the 25Q1calls. I'm not sure how much of that is business vs. lesiure spenidng, though.

 

[Cfabar1]

They raised the ppp so darn high….

Yes they did... so they've had to take out a few tricks....
- Lowered new buy in from 150 to 100
- Created "flash sale" step-down DVC products for older resorts with fewer years
- Lower minimum buy in down to 25 points for all resorts

The funny thing to me is resale restrictions are only going to make it tougher to justify buying direct, and the internet is only going to continue making it easier to learn about resale...

I bought 150 points at VGF roughly 2 years ago... with Magical Beginnings I paid about $24,150.
Now, adding on with MB would cost $30,750 at Poly (over 25% more!!!) and $28,650 at RIV (almost 20% more!!) And in those same two years, discounts have abounded and increased on the cash side of Disney hotel reservations...

Nevertheless they had some great sales figures with DVC last year... so I don't know... but I am questioning how long DVC can really sustain itself... especially with how attractive resale is priced in comparison...

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes they did... so they've had to take out a few tricks....
- Lowered new buy in from 150 to 100
- Created "flash sale" step-down DVC products for older resorts with fewer years
- Lower minimum buy in down to 25 points for all resorts

The funny thing to me is resale restrictions are only going to make it tougher to justify buying direct, and the internet is only going to continue making it easier to learn about resale...

I bought 150 points at VGF roughly 2 years ago... with Magical Beginnings I paid about $24,150.
Now, adding on with MB would cost $30,750 at Poly (over 25% more!!!) and $28,650 at RIV (almost 20% more!!) And in those same two years, discounts have abounded and increased on the cash side of Disney hotel reservations...

Nevertheless they had some great sales figures with DVC last year... so I don't know... but I am questioning how long DVC can really sustain itself... especially with how attractive resale is priced in comparison...

At some point you have also reached a high level of penetration of your addressable market. 15 year financing can try to grow that market and smaller contract sizes will help with add ons from the current customer base….

The financial pain is now happening for the white collar/laptop class with layoffs of middle management and hiring freezes…. AI is going to make that worse over the coming years… and a Disney trip is very expensive with flights, tickets, food, merch, lighting lanes, etc…

I would be very interested to see what % of direct buyers are using the 10-15 yr financing options and only make the minimum payment each month after owning for a few years….maybe Disney doesn’t care because they can just foreclose when people hit the inevitable financial hardship and can’t pay and then resell they resell the points again…. I’m looking at all of these ridiculously priced VDH contracts and would bet a lot that they are priced where they are because they are underwater and not because they think that’s where the contracts will sell…

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Summer used to be a peak season for WDW... it just isn't anymore... I think the points charts may eventually be redone to reference this... I think summer is priced too high and other times like January and early December are priced too low based on the demand I see...

Do we think January and early December will still be as popular if the point charts go up?

 

[Cfabar1]

Do we think January and early December will still be as popular if the point charts go up?

Personally I do.... Fall is very popular and it used to be one of the cheapest times of the year to visit... Still is, even though the points costs have gone way up...

So much of the Disney experience is dependent on decent weather... Early December in central Florida is extremely nice...

 

[Sandisw]

I'm in the camp that agrees with you it's a guide stretching the truth.

I showed the points sold at various points to try to show it's unlikely. Obviously, I did a poor job.
Easier explanation...
Declared 535k mid May.
Sell maybe 120k in the 3 months since then.
Declare another ~400K? Possible, but unlikely.

IF final declaration comment is legitimate...
If you can't fill the parks and go after locals via the AP offer, isn't it likely hotel bookings are down? Make the final declaration and start telling people it's about to be sold out. FOMO is a sales tactic.

The only reason I can think of for them to get the rest into DVD so quickly after last is to shift the costs, because cash booking would be down

Once added, DVD doesn’t pay operating dues on those points…does not apply to taxes or capital reserves

They simply have to cover the shortfall against what the rest of us are paying with their guarantee.

So, maybe they can already calculate how much they are going to owe and find out it’s less moving them all into RIv condo association vs keeping them unsold?