June 2022 Direct sales

[Nabas]

I’m not sure how this shows that Riviera can retain resell value. People that have bought Riviera aren’t really selling right now. The buyers of Riviera resale are most likely owners with points elsewhere, which aren’t affected by the resale restrictions (as they can book elsewhere with their other points). As that demand dwindles, and supply increases, it will be interesting to see how many buyers there will be.

Eg, if you’re a first time owner, would you buy Riviera resale? Doubtful.

DVC Resale Market reports that VGF is reselling for $176pp while RIV is reselling for $145pp.

Considering that both are being actively sold direct for the same price and, after the initial excitement, VGF and RIV sold about the same number of direct points last month, this gives us a rough idea of how much restrictions impact RIV resales.

 

[Flash_Sloth]

Possibly, assuming those are all they bought. We did 300 but in two 150 point contracts so that kind of data doesn’t show anywhere

Similarly, when we bought RIV about a year ago, we bought ~300 points in 3 contracts: 2 of them with fixed weeks, and then a third one with 50 points.

And reading the originally linked article, I didn't realize that fixed week contracts were so rare. I knew that they weren't common. They aren't for everyone, but I'm glad that we have ours.

 

[DisneyDad0315]

Similarly, when we bought RIV about a year ago, we bought ~300 points in 3 contracts: 2 of them with fixed weeks, and then a third one with 50 points.

And reading the originally linked article, I didn't realize that fixed week contracts were so rare. I knew that they weren't common. They aren't for everyone, but I'm glad that we have ours.

What fixed weeks did you get?

 

[hglenn]

DVC Resale Market reports that VGF is reselling for $176pp while RIV is reselling for $145pp.

Considering that both are being actively sold direct for the same price and, after the initial excitement, VGF and RIV sold about the same number of direct points last month, this gives us a rough idea of how much restrictions impact RIV resales.

A contract just passed for VGF for $165pp and RIV for $118pp. I know there is really no ROFR floor for either of these but since they are both in active sales it does represent quite a disparity in value... Like Sandisw said, once there are more with restrictions, then the resale value could level out... I still hold that these resale restrictions completely change the DVC product into something much less desirable in the TS market, in general.

 

[RKS03]

It’ll be interesting to see how poly 2 (assuming new dvc with restrictions) versus VGF does without restrictions on resale after both sell out. Poly2 will probably have ten years more of contract life and possibly will sell for higher price new than VGF2 is currently selling for. If VGF holds more resale value that’ll tell you about value of restrictions on resale. VGF could definitely be the last direct contract sold without restrictions and could thus hold value better.

 

[Nabas]

A contract just passed for VGF for $165pp and RIV for $118pp. I know there is really no ROFR floor for either of these but since they are both in active sales it does represent quite a disparity in value... Like Sandisw said, once there are more with restrictions, then the resale value could level out... I still hold that these resale restrictions completely change the DVC product into something much less desirable in the TS market, in general.

Resale prices are coming down for a myriad of reasons. It wasn’t that long ago that VGF resale was approaching $200pp.

Prices are in a state of transition. Even if they were not, I wouldn’t read too much into a single transaction. For example, the person selling RIV at $118 might have had a reason to sell at any price.

 

[hglenn]

Resale prices are coming down for a myriad of reasons. It wasn’t that long ago that VGF resale was approaching $200pp.

Prices are in a state of transition. Even if they were not, I wouldn’t read too much into a single transaction. For example, the person selling RIV at $118 might have had a reason to sell at any price.

Very true... But VGF was $200 before it went to active sales.... There are still several contracts listed as $180+ but they aren't selling....

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Resale prices are coming down for a myriad of reasons. It wasn’t that long ago that VGF resale was approaching $200pp.

Prices are in a state of transition. Even if they were not, I wouldn’t read too much into a single transaction. For example, the person selling RIV at $118 might have had a reason to sell at any price.

Prices are coming down for non-sold out resorts, but they seem to be rising for those being bought back in via ROFR. Comparing VGF resale prices of ~$200pp to now is comparing apples to oranges. When it was selling for $200pp the resort was sold out. With 2 Million points in supply, it’s normal for the price to drop. What will be interesting to see is what happens once it’s sold out again.

 

[Sandisw]

A contract just passed for VGF for $165pp and RIV for $118pp. I know there is really no ROFR floor for either of these but since they are both in active sales it does represent quite a disparity in value... Like Sandisw said, once there are more with restrictions, then the resale value could level out... I still hold that these resale restrictions completely change the DVC product into something much less desirable in the TS market, in general.

It is definitely a different product and the buyer pool will be smaller given its restrictions. But, if someone had offered $118 on a VGF contract and the seller had accepted, then it too would have passed since it is in active sales again.

So, an outlier can't be used as a norm....that is why average is important. The key is that in terms of direct sales, they are matching well, now that the initial surge of buying at VGF is over...and that was fueled by members who added on, not new buyers.

The other piece is that VGF has dropped in value since it went back on sale. It didn't take long because DVD priced it well.

The fact though that the average at DVC Resale Market is $145 right now...granted, not a lot of contracts sold...does mean that people are paying, for the most part, in the $130 to $150 range right now...and given it is a one resort only product, I think that is pretty strong when VGF can be used at 14 places.

As has been mentioned before, many of us, myself included, thought that value would never be much and that if it commanded more than $100/pt it would be an oddity...well, here we are 3 years later, and it hasn't dropped that low with the exception of a contract here or there...and more likely, those sold low because the owner needed to get out and not wait.

Look at all the VGF contracts you mentioned just sitting there and not selling...those owners have owned long enough that they can wait it out...someone selling RIV already is more likely needs to sell and can't afford to wait.

I agree that RIV may never sell as well as VGF, but neither has Poly...and, if ROFR wasn't as active as it is, many of the resorts right now would not be as high as they are...RIV still would since there is no ROFR on it.

 

[Nabas]

We

Prices are coming down for non-sold out resorts, but they seem to be rising for those being bought back in via ROFR. Comparing VGF resale prices of ~$200pp to now is comparing apples to oranges. When it was selling for $200pp the resort was sold out. With 2 Million points in supply, it’s normal for the price to drop. What will be interesting to see is what happens once it’s sold out again.

Higher interest rates, inflation, fear of recession, and an overall malaise are all impacting interest in buying DVC at the moment. A few resorts might have ticked upward but the overall trend is downward.



We’re starting to experience serious economic uncertainty, similar to what occurred during the last DVC resale price retreat.

Meanwhile, Disney is actively selling 3 DVC resorts, something it also was doing in 2008 & 2009 during the last DVC price retreat.

Available resale inventories are way up from 12 months ago.

All signs point to a DVC price retreat.

 

[The Jackal]

I have noticed that there is a lot of availability at CCV in the spring for studios. CCV studios used to be gone pretty quick at 11 months. Almost all of March and April are available. It could just be a trend of the newness wearing off, but I don’t think so.

 

[Mexacajun]

A contract just passed for VGF for $165pp and RIV for $118pp. I know there is really no ROFR floor for either of these but since they are both in active sales it does represent quite a disparity in value... Like Sandisw said, once there are more with restrictions, then the resale value could level out... I still hold that these resale restrictions completely change the DVC product into something much less desirable in the TS market, in general.

My VGF passed at 155 a few weeks ago and it was double points. I think it would pass regardless of how low it got so bid low low low and see what sticks. I actually offered 145 on a contract that was asking 175 and got it for 155.

I agree on the not fully seeing what the restrictions do long term until we have more resorts with them.

 

[havoc315]

With avg contract size at VGF around 175 hopefully this will calm the people nervous that all the new buyers will start booking 1 and 2 bedrooms in VGF1, these are studio sized contracts and don’t go very far for booking 1&2 bedrooms.

I wouldn't read anything into the average.
At EVERY resort, the "average" buyer is primarily booking studios. Studios are, by far, the most popular booking category at every resort.

But that 175 is an AVERAGE. So it includes plenty of 200, 300+ point contracts. And it includes people buying 175 points, who will book larger units for a long weekend, or book a larger unit once every 2-3 years.

You simply can't draw any conclusions from this "average."

Remember, the expansion does not add a single larger unit, they are all studios.
So even if "only" 10-20% of "new" GFV buyers want larger units, that 10-20% could be enough demand to overwhelm the current supply.

 

[Stargazer65]

But that 175 is an AVERAGE. So it includes plenty of 200, 300+ point contracts. And it includes people buying 175 points, who will book larger units for a long weekend, or book a larger unit once every 2-3 years.

Tis true. Believe it or not, we had only 100 pts for 10 years and almost always booked 2 bedroom villas. Just not every year.

 

[Flash_Sloth]

What fixed weeks did you get?

We bought RIV fixed weeks 41 (usually around Columbus Day and my birthday) and 49 (after Thanksgiving and before Christmas, and not affected by the blockout dates for Sorcerer's Pass).

 

[pianomanzano]

Tis true. Believe it or not, we had only 100 pts for 10 years and almost always booked 2 bedroom villas. Just not every year.

Same here. We bought VGF resale (125 pts) a couple months back for the sole purpose of having 11 month booking window for the 1br and 2br for split stays.

 

[Flash_Sloth]

...
Remember, the expansion does not add a single larger unit, they are all studios.
So even if "only" 10-20% of "new" GFV buyers want larger units, that 10-20% could be enough demand to overwhelm the current supply.

And on the flip side, there is probably some percentage of original VGF owners who wished that there were more studios to book. Whether that is larger or smaller than new buyers who are looking to book the 1BR or larger, I have no idea.

I almost bought resale VGF a year ago, and if I had, I would have been upset that the new Resort Studios don't have a kitchenette like we expect in Deluxe Studios. I would have bought into one expectation, and then the expansion would have changed everything.

 

[havoc315]

And on the flip side, there is probably some percentage of original VGF owners who wished that there were more studios to book. Whether that is larger or smaller than new buyers who are looking to book the 1BR or larger, I have no idea.

Correct. We need to give it some time to see how new patterns emerge.
It's possible that the new resort studios face overwhelming demand from original owners, with their larger size, a real second bed, and arguably better location.
We don't know how it will play out. Check back in 2 years.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

The days of dvc resale products selling for more than purchase price will soon be a thing of the past IMHO. The direction of chapeck and his crew will change this product. A great ceo sets a course for the future. Chapecks future devalues the product. Dvc as a product still has value in its legacy resorts. The future where resale is restricted to home resorts only significantly devalues the product. I think as new resorts come on the market with the same restrictions, dvc will find themselves holding the products longer. RIV is a beautiful resort and by all rights should be close to sold out or sold out by now. Restrictions have kept buyers away. I think the new poly building will be part of the original poly as dvc realizes the misstep with resale restrictions. I expect the next generation of dvc products to significantly devalue on resale. What dvc fails to realize is that part of what has driven the direct sales price is a certain comfort in the ability to sell if necessary. The new generation has significantly altered this. I think RIV on resale will fall below 100 pp. I agree with previous poster that many riv resale buyers already have other points to ise at other resorts or have direct riv points and will use the resale points and bank direct points for elsewhere if necessary.

 

[Sandisw]

Correct. We need to give it some time to see how new patterns emerge.
It's possible that the new resort studios face overwhelming demand from original owners, with their larger size, a real second bed, and arguably better location.
We don't know how it will play out. Check back in 2 years.

Also, the potential problem may be seasonal too...we shall see what happens when people start booking for November/December 2023...that is when we may see different trends for the larger units. I got my 2 bedroom SV at VGF in March this year, after adding on points...only two nights...but I could still get it 9 months in....

Right now, we are going into booking the times of the year that are less busy so it will take time...and, there are still 74% of the points associate with those new rooms unsold....until all those points are there, it will be hard to determine anything either.