Jobs report revision with up to a million jobs that were in reports are actually gone

[LuvOrlando]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1p6yZu

So do the people that run things actually live in another world because in the real one people can't get jobs and another recent article shared that businesses that offer employment are faking it to look healthy to investors and such. I just can't wrap my head around any of the things that happen because a bunch of people do this as a job right? Wouldnt the tax collections notice so many people reporting a lost job?

annnd this is Bloomberg, the guy who was mayor of NYC

ause this is

 

[tvguy]

Should be an interesting day on Wall Street tomorrow.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Gonna be brutal, I just moved as much as I am comfy with from my accounts over to CDs with 4.65% to buffer whatever fresh hell is gonna happen to what is stuck in the 401K. Such a mess and it keeps happening, its almost like some people get rich from it...

People need to see The Big Short

 

[HeatherC]

But isn’t the economy doing so great?

 

[LuvOrlando]

But isn’t the economy doing so great?

It would be magnificent if the interest rates weren't falsely up so high to prevent pretend inflation that is really just price gouging.

Let it go, let it go

 

[cvjw]

We’ve been hearing for years how low unemployment is and how great the economy is. Most normal people knew this wasn’t the case - people who actually buy groceries and pay bills.

 

[Smugpugmug]

I'm in the process of getting a new job and I can't count how many times I've been ghosted by these companies. It's been at least 20 different companies so far. It's the same story with my friends who also want to swap jobs or have been laid off and need new employment.

I've also heard from one company that I interviewed with for a position that they automatically ignore/delete all applications from Indeed so that's fun.

And yes, I do know that a decent chunk of job openings are fake. It's the bane of my existence.

"bUT nO oNE wANTS tO wORK aNYMORE!11!!1!!"

 

[RangerPooh]

This is nothing new, it's been going on for years. Lots of ghost job postings. Talk to those who are actually trying to pursue employment, and they will tell you that they're applying for various jobs and not hearing anything. I know plenty of teens who were applying for jobs this summer and were getting ghosted. These are teens with good grades, proficient in communication, and were looking for entry level jobs as baggers at grocery stores, in food service, and retail. No bites after dozens of applications submitted, yet all of those places have had help wanted postings for months. Online and in store.

It's happening in the professional realm too as a way to show how desirable your company is.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1p6yZu

So do the people that run things actually live in another world because in the real one people can't get jobs and another recent article shared that businesses that offer employment are faking it to look healthy to investors and such. I just can't wrap my head around any of the things that happen because a bunch of people do this as a job right? Wouldnt the tax collections notice so many people reporting a lost job?

annnd this is Bloomberg, the guy who was mayor of NYC

View attachment 888009ause this is

Statistical corrections happen all the time as better and more data comes in. If you can't wrap your head around it should you really be questioning the people that do this for a living that can wrap their heads around it. Tax collectors don't determine any of these figures. From the article you quoted.

Even if the total revision is as high as a million, monthly job gains would average around 158,000 — still a healthy pace
Or this part either
While other employment indicators (such as initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level in awhile) have since reassured that the job market is on solid footing,


No. They don't live in another world and they know statistics one heck of a lot better than most of us do.
No. It doesn't mean nobody can get a job. In fact lots of people have them and are getting them.
No. Businesses are not faking out the statistics. They're simply taking applications all the time whether or not they are hiring. BTW they've been doing the same since the 70s.
The data being revised is through March. That's 5 months ago.

Gonna be brutal, I just moved as much as I am comfy with from my accounts over to CDs with 4.65% to buffer whatever fresh hell is gonna happen to what is stuck in the 401K. Such a mess and it keeps happening, its almost like some people get rich from it...

People need to see The Big Short

.Timing the market is a game people that can't get their head wrapped around it lose.



If you're going to get scared and take money out and put it in and take it out, and put it in, that money shouldn't be there in the first place. If you're going to need a certain sum of money within 5 years, that money shouldn't be in the market no matter what you think it's going to do. The DJIA went down a thou a short time ago. It has already made that up and more.

And it's hard to know what the market will do tomorrow. It depends how it affects market estimates of whether the fed will lower interest rates. The short term expectations game is also one that shouldn't be played. That's a game even those that can wrap their heads around it lose all too often.

We’ve been hearing for years how low unemployment is and how great the economy is. Most normal people knew this wasn’t the case - people who actually buy groceries and pay bills.

Show me exactly what national data you've collected and your collection method as well as your statistical analysis that contradicts the official numbers that you know better what's going on nationally. Otherwise, uh you really can't make such a claim.
BTW, what's being revised isn't what is used to calculate the unemployment rate. Hmmm. That's not a good sign for me going with your word on that one.

 

[tvguy]

It would be magnificent if the interest rates weren't falsely up so high to prevent pretend inflation that is really just price gouging.

Let it go, let it go

Those of us who had 12.25% mortgages would argue that interest rates aren't high. I can't argue if they are where they are due to artificial means. I think people like my daughter, who bought a house five years ago and got a 4% mortgage and refinanced to 2.2% think those potentially artificially low mortgage rates are the norm. The current 7%ish rates are right in the middle of the extremes and I would argue are normal. Now housing prices, they are higher than they should be. Rents too. But in my retirement, I am benefiting from that.

 

[LuvOrlando]

This is nothing new, it's been going on for years. Lots of ghost job postings. Talk to those who are actually trying to pursue employment, and they will tell you that they're applying for various jobs and not hearing anything. I know plenty of teens who were applying for jobs this summer and were getting ghosted. These are teens with good grades, proficient in communication, and were looking for entry level jobs as baggers at grocery stores, in food service, and retail. No bites after dozens of applications submitted, yet all of those places have had help wanted postings for months. Online and in store.

It's happening in the professional realm too as a way to show how desirable your company is.

Its hard to tell what is behind the ghost jobs though. So many businesses have messages about fake jobs, I suppose it is a new phishing type scam but it has had profound effects on US policy too to & that is deeply disturbing, like a massive Social Engineering hack. Also would it really be all that tough to hack the job websites and simply direct valid jobs to some and leave others out?

If jobs went back to newspapers it would save the news and it would be way too pricey to be tampered with on any sort of massive scale. Seem many of the old ways of things were inherently immune to many new manipulations.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Statistical corrections happen all the time as better and more data comes in. If you can't wrap your head around it should you really be questioning the people that do this for a living that can wrap their heads around it. Tax collectors don't determine any of these figures. From the article you quoted.

Even if the total revision is as high as a million, monthly job gains would average around 158,000 — still a healthy pace
Or this part either
While other employment indicators (such as initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level in awhile) have since reassured that the job market is on solid footing,


No. They don't live in another world and they know statistics one heck of a lot better than most of us do.
No. It doesn't mean nobody can get a job. In fact lots of people have them and are getting them.
No. Businesses are not faking out the statistics. They're simply taking applications all the time whether or not they are hiring. BTW they've been doing the same since the 70s.
The data being revised is through March. That's 5 months ago.


.Timing the market is a game people that can't get their head wrapped around it lose.

View attachment 888024

If you're going to get scared and take money out and put it in and take it out, and put it in, that money shouldn't be there in the first place. If you're going to need a certain sum of money within 5 years, that money shouldn't be in the market no matter what you think it's going to do. The DJIA went down a thou a short time ago. It has already made that up and more.

And it's hard to know what the market will do tomorrow. It depends how it affects market estimates of whether the fed will lower interest rates. The short term expectations game is also one that shouldn't be played. That's a game even those that can wrap their heads around it lose all too often.



Show me exactly what national data you've collected and your collection method as well as your statistical analysis that contradicts the official numbers that you know better what's going on nationally. Otherwise, uh you really can't make such a claim.
BTW, what's being revised isn't what is used to calculate the unemployment rate. Hmmm. That's not a good sign for me going with your word on that one.

Do you work in Public Relations or something? Lobbyist? Something in this realm?
It takes a special sort of mindset to have current events go in and have this as an output is all I'm saying.
I am not going to participate further, no use in guessing when the bell rings soon, todays events will be what they will be.

 

[LuvOrlando]

"The New York Federal Reserve's latest poll of consumers found 28.4% of respondents were looking for a job — the highest reading since March 2014 and up from 19.4% a year ago. That includes both individuals already out of a job and ones currently employed but seeking new roles."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/rcna167368

 

[tony67]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1p6yZu

So do the people that run things actually live in another world because in the real one people can't get jobs and another recent article shared that businesses that offer employment are faking it to look healthy to investors and such. I just can't wrap my head around any of the things that happen because a bunch of people do this as a job right? Wouldnt the tax collections notice so many people reporting a lost job?

annnd this is Bloomberg, the guy who was mayor of NYC

View attachment 888009ause this is

Yeah these revision are "normal" - does not make it right, but that is how the "game" is played.
Same thing happens to inflation etc.. - no one really pays attention to the revisions IMO - that is the past - so they focus on the latest report that will be revised later. This has gone on forever.

Take advantage of the high interest accounts you can get well you can. If you have an IRA find one that pays fair interest on your sweep account or find a money market mutual fund that pays 4-5%.

Also look at offers to transfer it to another company - they can pay from 750-1500 as long as you keep it there 90 days.

All that said - don't take any investment advice from me - I have never made money in the markets - its a rigged game.

As for interest rates - we were spoiled with the low interest rates on mortgages in recent years. in the 70s 12.9 was the average I think. In the very early 80s it was closer to 20%.

"The New York Federal Reserve's latest poll of consumers found 28.4% of respondents were looking for a job — the highest reading since March 2014 and up from 19.4% a year ago. That includes both individuals already out of a job and ones currently employed but seeking new roles."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/rcna167368

Yeah - No doubt many people are looking - I know first hand.
For every 10 jobs you apply for you might get 1 or 2 interviews if you are lucky.
Many of these posting are not even hiring - I've been on both sides of that.

We have a job req, we do all the work to find someone we want to hire, and then the company does not hire them.
I think it is partially to make the employees think things are good since we are hiring.
People below management have no idea we are not actually hiring these people we spend time and money interviewing.

Some companies even have the audacity to try and get you to do free work.
One of my former people ran into this multiple times, he did the work and then never heard back - yet the job is still open.

I've seen them go 5 or 6 rounds and then not hire anyone - and months later the posting is still out there.

 

[mom2rtk]

I was kind of surprised to see this yesterday. Not because the news surprises me, but because it’s the sort of thing I expect to see dumped late on a Friday afternoon.

 

[tony67]

I was kind of surprised to see this yesterday. Not because the news surprises me because it’s the sort of thing I expect to dump late on a Friday afternoon.

Well - I think it was first mentioned on Friday afternoon as rumored - or maybe over the weekend - Im not 100% sure but was a couple of days ago.

 

[GAN]

The sky is FALLING, the sky is FALLING! As markets show little change in overnight trading.....

What goes down, must go up....

 

[LuvOrlando]

The sky is FALLING, the sky is FALLING! As markets show little change in overnight trading.....

What goes down, must go up....

The markets having no reaction whatsoever to such massive misinformation would be even more bizarre to be honest...

Although on the flip, it does improve likelihood of a drop in rates soon.

Tough to say how incompetence will alter things as an ingredient to the messy soup we have... time will tell

 

[tvguy]

Yeah these revision are "normal" - does not make it right, but that is how the "game" is played.
Same thing happens to inflation etc.. - no one really pays attention to the revisions IMO - that is the past - so they focus on the latest report that will be revised later. This has gone on forever.

Take advantage of the high interest accounts you can get well you can. If you have an IRA find one that pays fair interest on your sweep account or find a money market mutual fund that pays 4-5%.

Also look at offers to transfer it to another company - they can pay from 750-1500 as long as you keep it there 90 days.

All that said - don't take any investment advice from me - I have never made money in the markets - its a rigged game.

As for interest rates - we were spoiled with the low interest rates on mortgages in recent years. in the 70s 12.9 was the average I think. In the very early 80s it was closer to 20%.


Yeah - No doubt many people are looking - I know first hand.
For every 10 jobs you apply for you might get 1 or 2 interviews if you are lucky.
Many of these posting are not even hiring - I've been on both sides of that.

We have a job req, we do all the work to find someone we want to hire, and then the company does not hire them.
I think it is partially to make the employees think things are good since we are hiring.
People below management have no idea we are not actually hiring these people we spend time and money interviewing.

Some companies even have the audacity to try and get you to do free work.
One of my former people ran into this multiple times, he did the work and then never heard back - yet the job is still open.

I've seen them go 5 or 6 rounds and then not hire anyone - and months later the posting is still out there.

I guess it depends on the industry. My first job, in 1979 I was one of about 100 applicants. I retired in 2021 and it was three months after the job was posted that they got the FIRST applicant. I think the DRASTIC decline in salaries in my industry is a large reason. My first job paid (in a union shop) paid double minimum wage. My last job paid 170% of minimum wage, so 30% less relative to minimum wage and less than the "low income" threshold in our county.

 

[GAN]

The markets having no reaction whatsoever would be even more bizarre to be honest, time will tell

Everyone's situation is different but over the long-term, staying in the market is the winning strategy ...and I've "played" beat the market game and lost more than I've won. So, even now that I'm within 5-years of retirement I'm staying in the market. Over the last year I've switched over to dividend stocks and ETF's with the plan to live off those payments and social security once retired ...leaving the investments alone(for my kids).