It's time again - - - 300,000

[jcb]

It shouldn't be hard to believe, with the popularity of the DIS, but time seems to have flown between 200,000 registered Disboards.com members and 300,000.

Disboards reached 200,000 on 12/6/08 (Pete's birthday). Based on the average number of new members per day at that time (about 80), I predicted it would be April 2012 before disboards.com reached 300,000.

Boy, was I wrong. I seriously underestimated the power of the DIS.

I've been recording the member numbers (off and on) since July 2010. When I started, the number of new members averaged 150 a day. Then, in early September, things took off like a fat kid running after the ice cream truck for his rocket bar (oddly, this was a week before John's call for lurkers to de-lurk). For example, the number of new members from 9/20 to 9/21 exceeded 400 .

The jump has skewed the accuracy of any prediction (I like to rely on averages) I might make so I'm hedging my bets and saying, for now, it looks like 300,000 will happen between Nov. 2 and Nov. 19. As we get closer, I hope to narrow down this prediction.

Thinking the new members per day will however around 325 per day, my guess is 11/4/10.

 

[LeahZ]

Well, I am impressed by all this math!

I too have noticed the jump in numbers. When I first started paying attention in May/June 2009, it was a little over 200,000 and I've been amazed at how quickly it has jumped!

 

[WaltD4Me]

That's quite a jump from 150 to 400. Do you have any theories as to the reason? Of course it could be because the DIS is the best, but it was the best at the 150 a day average too, so what is drawing in so many more people? The Magellan Awards? The deals Disney has been putting out? The Mediterranean cruise coverage?

 

[jcb]

Lisa, the Magellan Awards were announced on the 9/9/10 show email show (the one that followed the Swan Dolphin show). The awards are probably one reason for the huge numbers after that but the first sizable increase (the average new members a day jumped by almost 100 a day) began a couple of weeks before the awards were announced.

I recorded 277893 members on 8/28/10 and then 279619 on 9/4/10 - a difference of 1726 (and an average of 247 - rounded - per day). (At the time, I was thinking weekly observations would suffice and it would be January or February before 300,000 arrived.) The average new members per day for the prior week - and most of the summer had been about 150 a day.

I hadn't thought about the impact of the Magellan Awards. Good thinking. I was thinking people were returning to school and starting to plan the next summer's vacations.

 

[Friendly Frog]

Well, I have been doing my part, chatting up the Dis when on the resort busses or standing in ride lines. You know the saying..." You tell two friends and they tell two friends and..."

 

[Cherinva]

I chat up the DIS as well...whenever I run into someone and the subject of Disney pops up....that happens more often than not....it's amazing to me the number of people that have said...I've never been and I want to go...that starts it off....I highly recommend the DIS for a place to start for information...

 

[lugnut33]

I told two random people yesterday about the Dis Boards.

 

[jcb]

Monday is a popular day to join the Dis. 372 joined since 10 pm last night.

 

[connie1042]

I am giving a class on Disney planning, for Community Education. I plan on giving everyone the DIS web site. Best information around.

 

[jcb]

Average for today and yesterday: 385.

300,000 prediction ranging from between October 30 (385 per day) and November 3 (average 338 per day).

Weekends are usually slower.

 

[Luv2Camp]

372 joined since 10 pm last night.

That's amazing!!!

 

[Cherinva]

Wow

 

[jcb]

average for last three days - 323. 8591 to go. Weekends seem slower than weekdays.

The date for 300,000 is still looking like November 3 or 4.

 

[jcb]

Sunday was another "slow" day - 324 new members (as of 10 pm on 10/10/10). 8,258 to go. My spreadsheet is still saying it will be 11/3/10.

 

[Madi100]

Wow. Those numbers are amazing. Is it possible to tell how many people are actually active members who post more than once, though? A lot of people will join to check things out, but how many of them stay? There is so much information to be found on the DIS. I love the theme park boards and DVC boards.

Thanks for sharing!

 

[jeanigor]

Math Rocks!

 

[jcb]

Wow. Those numbers are amazing. Is it possible to tell how many people are actually active members who post more than once, though? A lot of people will join to check things out, but how many of them stay? There is so much information to be found on the DIS. I love the theme park boards and DVC boards.

Thanks for sharing!

I'm sure Alex and Pete have access to this information. I don't.

Right now the average number of posts per member (36281179/291884) is 124. That tells me there are a lot of members who rarely post.

Lurkers delurk.

 

[SGB13]

Some of us are a little shy.

 

[wishspirit]

I love these threads! The suspense of it all!!

 

[jcb]

Individual two day figures for Sunday (10/11/10) and Monday (10/12/10):

Sunday - 353 new members.
Monday - 403 new members.

As of 10 pm tonight (EDT), 7,502 away from 300,000.

Projection for 300,000 is still 11/3/10. The well-above average new members for today put the time of day at 3:14 AM. If that holds steady, I guess Kate will get to observe 300,000. I know I won't.