It's time again - - - 300,000

[WaltD4Me]

Individual two day figures for Sunday (10/11/10) and Monday (10/12/10):

Sunday - 353 new members.
Monday - 403 new members.

As of 10 pm tonight (EDT), 7,502 away from 300,000.

Projection for 300,000 is still 11/3/10. The well-above average new members for today put the time of day at 3:14 AM. If that holds steady, I guess Kate will get to observe 300,000. I know I won't.

Drat! I might just have to stay up now to see if it happens!

 

[jcb]

I saw 200,000. That was exciting enough.

 

[wishspirit]

Individual two day figures for Sunday (10/11/10) and Monday (10/12/10):

Sunday - 353 new members.
Monday - 403 new members.

As of 10 pm tonight (EDT), 7,502 away from 300,000.

Projection for 300,000 is still 11/3/10. The well-above average new members for today put the time of day at 3:14 AM. If that holds steady, I guess Kate will get to observe 300,000. I know I won't.

That will be 8.15am my time, I will check before I head out to work!

 

[jcb]

386 today. 7116 to go.

Revised estimate is now 11/2/10 10:07 pm EDT.

 

[jcb]

New one day high - 411

6705 to go.

The average, for what it is worth, now predicts 11/2/10 2:39.

The average (342 a day) is based on observations since 9/4/10. Recent highs are likely rendering the estimated date too far out.

 

[jcb]

Friday - 304
Saturday/Sunday - 176 (2 day avg) - nice weather on a weekend (a double whammy)
Monday - 335

5,714 to go.

current prediction - 11/4/10 - 3:23 am.

 

[jcb]

My last trusty observation was on 10/18/10. Since then there have been 1,459 new members (an average of 366 each day). That bumps up the overall average (to 336 per day) putting the latest prediction for 300,000 at 11/3/10 at 3:57 pm.

Of course, another beautiful fall weekend in the east could bump the date back a day or so.

 

[WaltD4Me]

My last trusty observation was on 10/18/10. Since then there have been 1,459 new members (an average of 366 each day). That bumps up the overall average (to 336 per day) putting the latest prediction for 300,000 at 11/3/10 at 3:57 pm.

Of course, another beautiful fall weekend in the east could bump the date back a day or so.

Another beautiful weekend here, curious to see if the date got bumped. I know I wasn't on the computer that much this weekend.

 

[jcb]

This weekend wasn't as slow as the prior one.

There were 335 (which is very close to the per day average since 9/4/10) on Saturday and 264 on Sunday.

So as of last night at 10 pm it is 3,392 new members to 300,000. The "slower" weekend dropped the time of day to 10:18 pm but it is still looking like 11/3/10.

Now that we have 50 days of observations (9/4/ to 10/24) I'm baffled as to why there was such a significant jump in new members starting in September. The average new members per day over the summer (5/23/10 to 8/28/10) stayed pretty close to 148. Starting in mid-September it has been pretty close to an average of 335 per day and it shows no sign of tapering off.

 

[Cheshire Figment]

However, the numbers are very inaccurate. I know this is a blasphemous statement but true.

One definite example concerns former member JudySue. She was last on DisBoards (that I know of) in late October 2004 before going into the hospital. In early November I posted her obituary. But she is still listed as a member.

Likewise there have been Spammers and others who have been permanently banned from the boards, but the User IDs are not deleted.

As well as people who have forgotten their passwords and there is no recovery available, or people who for various privacy-related reasons need a second identity.

So to say that there are almost 300,000 members is an inaccuracy. It would be more correct to say that over the life of DisBoards there has been almost 300,000 registrations.

Sorry about being a downer, but I am a retired CPA with lots of audit experience and a very strong believer in numerical accuracy.

(Let the flames begin!)

 

[jcb]

However, the numbers are very inaccurate. I know this is a blasphemous statement but true.

One definite example concerns former member JudySue. She was last on DisBoards (that I know of) in late October 2004 before going into the hospital. In early November I posted her obituary. But she is still listed as a member.

Likewise there have been Spammers and others who have been permanently banned from the boards, but the User IDs are not deleted.

As well as people who have forgotten their passwords and there is no recovery available, or people who for various privacy-related reasons need a second identity.

So to say that there are almost 300,000 members is an inaccuracy. It would be more correct to say that over the life of DisBoards there has been almost 300,000 registrations.

Sorry about being a downer, but I am a retired CPA with lots of audit experience and a very strong believer in numerical accuracy.

(Let the flames begin!)

I totally agree with your point. I use the word "members" because that is the term used at disboards.com

Nicole made the same point a little while ago. With the number of "posts" (36,447,832) divided by the number of "members" (296,526) - as I write this - showing there an average 123 posts per "member" it is clear many "members" are not active participants.

And, to make a point, you are not really talking about "numerical accuracy" - the numbers themselves are accurate. You are addressing how we characterize the numbers (and again, I'll emphasize that I agree with your characterization). I rely upon the wisdom of Obi-Wan: "Luke, you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view."

However the numbers are characterized, 300,000 is still a remarkable achievement.

 

[jcb]

Monday and Today rebounded (from the weekend)

362 on Monday
399 today.

2,895 to go.

At this point, it doesn't look like the predicted day (11/3/10) is going to change (absent a significant event). The time of day is 2:37 pm (eastern) but I think the measurements are too imprecise to make that prediction reliable.

 

[jcb]

1184 to go.

10/27 - 398
10/28 - 378
10/29 - 384
10/30 - 285
10/31 - 266

The nice weekend continues to affect the numbers. Even so, 11/3/10 is still forecast (based on average). At this point, the margin of error (or imprecisions in the formula) prevent any prediction of the time of day.

If we have the usual Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, 300,000 could happen late 11/3/10 or early 11/4/10.

For example, using last weeks numbers:

Monday - 1184-362=822
Tuesday - 822-399=423
Wednesday - 423-398=25

I've been making observations as close as possible to 10 pm each night. So late night Wednesday (after chat) could be when 300,000 happens.

 

[jcb]

873 to go.

311 new today.

 

[chaoscent]

I love the fact that you are doing this. Very impressive. Penny

 

[jcb]

I love the fact that you are doing this. Very impressive. Penny

Thanks. At this point it is pretty simple math (which is not to say I couldn't screw it up - I did last time).

At 8:30, we are already up to 338 new members/registrations (since 10 pm last night).

 

[jcb]

299493 - 507 to go.

It might happen tomorrow (by midnight) but odds are against it. More likely it will be early on 11/4/10.

 

[WaltD4Me]

299493 - 507 to go.

It might happen tomorrow (by midnight) but odds are against it. More likely it will be early on 11/4/10.

Exciting. Not going to change the world of course, but fun to follow...I want to see it happen. Thanks for keep track Jack.

 

[WaltD4Me]

299,900! 100 to go!

 

[WaltD4Me]

299,921 ........ 79 to go! Will I make it to see 300,000? C'mon people register faster!