It Looks Like the Death Numbers are Being Inflated

[MillauFr]

(Drudge or CNN)

I always respect those who get information from sources with differing biases.

 

[SirDuff]

I just listened into a call about International standards for coding deaths due to Covid. Not a lot of details about the rules themselves (most of us on the call were not coders nor users of MCCD), but they shared an interesting analysis about excess deaths. The specific example that they used was NYC (but data aren't shareable), but I found this article with similar ideas.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive..._I-thEDnttDc3uHhozMfr-0-3q9S1gf3vgHXaEzYLLKno
https://amp.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d...IuNVZj2FCSkFfP_w84aRS_glk3xgiGdme8EsPDrL4JL2Y
If you compare expected deaths (based on historical trends) with actual deaths reported (no matter what the cause), you see the "excess deaths". In no case shown, are the number of Covid related deaths equal to the number of excess deaths, which you'd expect if claims of all these widespread falsely reported deaths occurred (in theory, Covid-related deaths would be higher than the "excess deaths", since deaths that would have occurred anyway (e.g. the OP's car accident example) were falsely labeled as Covid deaths.

Now, I'm not suggesting that all the excess deaths are Covid-related (or at least not directly). We know from previous outbreaks (though, admittedly, none have been quite like this one) that many more people will die (who wouldn't have died if there was no outbreak) from things other than the outbreak disease. There appears to be evidence, for example, that people are avoiding urgent care/ERs and are showing up with heart attacks and strokes later than they normally would (thus, increasing CFR). Also, I just read something about an increase in residential fires (though not sure if there has been an increase in fire related deaths and now I cannot find the article). Other issues (especially in low-income countries) will show up later - vaccine preventable diseases/deaths will increase since vaccination programs are halted and/or parents avoid them; children will die of malnutrition because of similar problems with feeding programs; elective treatments are put off and, while they are generally only put off when doing so shouldn't affect outcome, it is likely that it will in some cases.

 

[wombat_5606]

You wouldn't know it listening to the LA County daily updates - but yes. The good news, and what the whole point of stay at home is about, is that there have NEVER been more than about 180 active cases at any one time in my city, with 2/3 of those who never occupied a bed in a hospital. Here's the crazy part - if LA County follows the counties in the Bay Area, we are about to get extended to the end of May. Expect unrest - the numbers just don't support that. Thus the reason the numbers being reported omit the number recovered? There's a fine line between omitting information and straight-up lying.

So what do you suggest be done? Are you telling me that getting rid of the stay at home order will solve that problem?

 

[Lumpy1106]

^ OTOH, car accident deaths in CA are 1/2 what they were before COVID - actually saving lives all tolled. But yeah, totally agree with you. If some 85 year-old in a nursing home who has had multiple strokes gets COVID, why are we focusing on COVID as the cause of death? Not to be insensitive, but Dude did not have long to live anyway and no one would argue that.

 

[Lumpy1106]

So what do you suggest be done? Are you telling me that getting rid of the stay at home order will solve that problem?

I”ll post something

Is there really a problem? Hospitals can more than handle the cases coming in. If you are waiting for a vaccine - forget it. That's years off. Stay home for years? That will just cause mass bankruptcies and a host of associated problems that will result in REALLY avoidable deaths. No, "the new normal" has to be that people will get sick, we have the capacity to provide care, and we're OK with that.

 

[Searc]

^ OTOH, car accident deaths in CA are 1/2 what they were before COVID - actually saving lives all tolled. But yeah, totally agree with you. If some 85 year-old in a nursing home who has had multiple strokes gets COVID, why are we focusing on COVID as the cause of death? Not to be insensitive, but Dude did not have long to live anyway and no one would argue that.

Who cares, let 'em die, amirite?

 

[mjkacmom]

Is there really a problem? Hospitals can more than handle the cases coming in. If you are waiting for a vaccine - forget it. That's years off. Stay home for years? That will just cause mass bankruptcies and a host of associated problems that will result in REALLY avoidable deaths. No, "the new normal" has to be that people will get sick, we have the capacity to provide care, and we're OK with that.

But hospitals are still short of PPE, and workers are getting sick. Can we please have supplies ready before opening everything up? Obviously hospitals in my area were not prepared.
https://www.usnews.com/news/nationa...early-10-000-health-care-workers-had-covid-19

 

[Lumpy1106]

Who cares, let 'em die, amirite?

No - you spend your resources focusing on keeping COVID out of the nursing homes - instead of shutting down schools etc. where the risk is nearly non-existent. That's not where we are now, but that is where we need to be.

 

[wombat_5606]

Is there really a problem? Hospitals can more than handle the cases coming in. If you are waiting for a vaccine - forget it. That's years off. Stay home for years? That will just cause mass bankruptcies and a host of associated problems that will result in REALLY avoidable deaths. No, "the new normal" has to be that people will get sick, we have the capacity to provide care, and we're OK with that.

What you fail to take into account, is that without the stay at home order you may not have the capacity,

 

[cabanafrau]

Is there really a problem? Hospitals can more than handle the cases coming in. If you are waiting for a vaccine - forget it. That's years off. Stay home for years? That will just cause mass bankruptcies and a host of associated problems that will result in REALLY avoidable deaths. No, "the new normal" has to be that people will get sick, we have the capacity to provide care, and we're OK with that.

Stay home for years? Where is that genuinely being proposed as a public policy? No one rationally believes that's either possible or a way forward.

Stay home for a period of time with gradual reopening seems to be the general consensus across many countries around the world. I don't see much data to rely on that suggests the US has a special ability to do otherwise. It seems several areas of the country are beginning to take varying steps toward reopening, hopefully very successfully. Some areas may have to hang on just a bit longer, such as the area where I live, which is only beginning to show some glimmers of daylight. One of the major hurdles my area will be confronted with will be opening up our manufacturing without triggering a massive outbreak. Praying that will go well when we're at that point.

 

[wombat_5606]

^ OTOH, car accident deaths in CA are 1/2 what they were before COVID - actually saving lives all tolled. But yeah, totally agree with you. If some 85 year-old in a nursing home who has had multiple strokes gets COVID, why are we focusing on COVID as the cause of death? Not to be insensitive, but Dude did not have long to live anyway and no one would argue that.

No one is focusing on COVID as cause of death. It is being listed as an underlying cause of death, just like heart issues or lung issues.

No - you spend your resources focusing on keeping COVID out of the nursing homes - instead of shutting down schools etc. where the risk is nearly non-existent. That's not where we are now, but that is where we need to be.

What about those asymptomatic kids giving Covid to their adult teachers?

 

[mjkacmom]

No - you spend your resources focusing on keeping COVID out of the nursing homes - instead of shutting down schools etc. where the risk is nearly non-existent. That's not where we are now, but that is where we need to be.

Why do you think it’s just nursing homes? You are obviously not in an area that has been hit hard. Kids infect teachers, kids infect parents and other family members. Look at these figures.
https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

 

[cabanafrau]

What about those asymptomatic kids giving Covid to their adult teachers?

But the kids don't look sick or act sick. No harm/no foul.

 

[wombat_5606]

Stay home for years? Where is that genuinely being proposed as a public policy? No one rationally believes that's either possible or a way forward.

THIS!!!!!

In my area, they are opening the hospitals and Dr offices. If they can't contain the virus with their sterile procedures, then I think the stay at home orders will bear a second look.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Why do you think it’s just nursing homes? You are obviously not in an area that has been hit hard. Kids infect teachers, kids infect parents and other family members. Look at these figures.
https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

Given how he described his city, I've figured out what it might to be. It looks to be in an area where social distancing was done in time to work well. And of course now he seems to think that because they didn't have that many deaths and cases, they shouldn't have done it in the first place.

Similarly, if most everyone evacuated and few died in a hurricane, there would always be somebody claiming despite the damage, the fact that few died means they didn't need to evacuate in the first place.

No - you spend your resources focusing on keeping COVID out of the nursing homes - instead of shutting down schools etc. where the risk is nearly non-existent. That's not where we are now, but that is where we need to be.

Just because children don't die of it at the rate other ages do doesn't mean the kids do not get it and spread it. School is the one of the places where diseases spread fastest of all. Hence the risk isn't nearly nonexistent keeping them open. In fact it's quite high. The kids all get it, spread it to each other, they spread it to their families and teachers, and it's all over the place. Why do you think during high flu epidemic, schools often close for a week or two? This stuff is taking a bit longer as the experts expected.

 

[jiminyC_fan]

^ OTOH, car accident deaths in CA are 1/2 what they were before COVID - actually saving lives all tolled. But yeah, totally agree with you. If some 85 year-old in a nursing home who has had multiple strokes gets COVID, why are we focusing on COVID as the cause of death? Not to be insensitive, but Dude did not have long to live anyway and no one would argue that.

I can't get over that last sentence. What if that "dude" was you, your dad, grandparent, friend etc? I would think your attitude would be different. Also, a polite way of stating it would be "gentleman".

 

[monsterkitty]

No - you spend your resources focusing on keeping COVID out of the nursing homes - instead of shutting down schools etc. where the risk is nearly non-existent. That's not where we are now, but that is where we need to be.

Who is going to teach, feed, transport, and clean up after the kids?

At my school of around 600 students, we have about 40 adults working there. This does not include bus drivers. Of those 40 adults, we have 3 cancer survivors, 2 with Type 1 Diabetes, 2 with Lupus, 1 has MS, and I have no idea how many others have high blood pressure or other heart diseases. Heck, my DH and a really good friend both have the "they're screwed" gene for high cholesterol, despite both being marathon runners.

So if that many people at one school are considered higher risk for COVID 19, who's going to be there for our kids?

For whatever reason, my school has had an unusual high number of people diagnosed with breast and lung cancer. This may not be the case in all schools or districts. My sister works at another school in the district and they have had more than a few diagnosed with ALS or cancer.

 

[travelplanningnerd]

^ OTOH, car accident deaths in CA are 1/2 what they were before COVID - actually saving lives all tolled. But yeah, totally agree with you. If some 85 year-old in a nursing home who has had multiple strokes gets COVID, why are we focusing on COVID as the cause of death? Not to be insensitive, but Dude did not have long to live anyway and no one would argue that.

It's remarkably insensitive. It doesn't matter if someone is old or not. Death is hard on everyone, but especially the people left behind. And dying alone when your family doesn't have the opportunity to say goodbye will weigh on them for years.

 

[wombat_5606]

It's remarkably insensitive. It doesn't matter if someone is old or not. Death is hard on everyone, but especially the people left behind. And dying alone when your family doesn't have the opportunity to say goodbye will weigh on them for years.

Yes, my granddaughter would be devastated if her grandmother died because she wanted to go to school or play on the playground.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Man, I knew there was a reason I hadn't waded into these discussions - y'all need to grow a sense of humor. Maybe you don't have experience with nursing homes, but if a "gentleman" was in his 80's and had had a couple of strokes, I guarantee his loved ones would have an active DNR. You read into that what you want. To get back on topic, the point is, why would you attribute his unfortunate passing to COVID rather than a host of other things that he would no doubt succumb to? But hey, by all means, let's shut down EVERYTHING, and keep it closed - that will help. Keep in mind, that includes nursing homes. Patients in nursing homes are essentially prisoners with no visitation rights. Nobody is getting the opportunity to say goodbye as it is. The stories are heartbreaking.

As for kids, I don't know what your HS experience was like, but I would be devastated if my kids don't get the experience of a senior year, as would their grandparents. The emotional development that takes place in that year is CRUCIAL. My kids are bored silly - this cannot be good for them. This is not to mention the now 30% unemployment a lot of parents are now struggling with. We need to find a road map out of this NOW. This cannot wait 1 year, 2 years, 10 years if ever, it takes for a vaccine to be developed.