It Looks Like the Death Numbers are Being Inflated

[LongLiveRafiki]

Considering the OP is presumed to be from MI, I found an interesting article about how several MI counties are reporting COVID-19 deaths. Different people have varying opinions on whether overall cases are being under reported or over reported, and frankly, it sounds like there is compelling reason to believe that both may be occuring. Some areas are likely missing COVID deaths, especially if they occur at home and a test was not performed. On the other hand, some areas are testing all corpses and counting them as COVID deaths if positive, regardless of whether or not COVID played a part in the death, which obviously would inflate the numbers in those areas.

From the article, the Macomb County Chief Medical Examiner says that they performed a COVID test post-mortem on an individual who died by suicide. Since the test was positive, even though COVID wasn't the cause of death, the individual was reported as a COVID death. They are not testing all individuals who die, but for those they do, if the test comes back positive, it's reported as COVID.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/me...5gjbr7E0Hl11CZi59khRUGlj7GoQRZQPi7r89zzdQRIrY
The Oakland County Chief Medical Examiner says that they are testing every deceased individual in the county, "whether they sustained injuries or were in a hospital setting or their place of work or home, whether they're victims of violence or unexpected death, we're testing them." The article also states that if the test is positive, the death is reported as a COVID death.

The Kent County Chief Medical Examiner on the other hand has said they've done very few (he mentions 3) post-mortem tests and says that in Kent County a death will not be reported as COVID if they clearly died from another cause. He says, "That's dying with COVID, not of COVID... It defeats the point of having statistics.

Something I found interesting is that for Kent County, COVID deaths account for 2% of confirmed cases in the county. In Oakland and Macomb Counties, over 10% of their confirmed cases have been reported as dying from COVID (using numbers from state database). There's obviously a huge difference in those numbers based on what each county is considering a COVID death.

To sum up, there ARE deaths being reported as COVID if they test positive, despite COVID not being in any way related to why the person died. I can't speak to whether the individuals mentioned by the OP fall into this category or not, but given that two Chief Medical Examiners in MI have said that's how deaths are being reported in their counties, it seems possible that the individuals mentioned by OP tested positive and were reported as COVID deaths, even if their deaths were completely unrelated to COVID.

 

[LongLiveRafiki]

13k if the person has insurance. And if the person does not have insurance or adequate insurance then the hospital eats the rest because the person is now out of work and has no income.

That's not entirely true now. If a person is uninsured and hospitalized, the hospital can apply for reimbursement of costs from the federal govt if the person has tested positive for COVID.

Wouldn't those be the same amount regardless of what the ailment is? Why does a cause of death matter one bit on what a hospital charges?

The CARES ACT states that Medicare will pay an additional 20% on top of contracted rates for in-patient bills of Medicare recipients who test positive for COVID. Of course, not everyone has Medicare, but for those that do, hospitals will receive more money for a COVID patient than for a patient without COVID (if using a scenario where treatment costs/bills would have otherwise been the same). In that sense, it is financially beneficial for the hospital to ensure that if a Medicare patient has a positive test, even if done post-mortem, that it's recorded since they can receive more money that way. Same for an uninsured patient as they can then apply for reimbursement.

 

[pahoben]

The link is to the CDC US death rate report for 2017. The report shows 2.8 million total US deaths for the year and 56,000 of those due to Influenza/Pneumonia. The deaths attributed to Covid 19 are small enough relative to total deaths that differences in counting methods can materially impact the Covid 19 death total but still have no material impact on the total US death rate of 864/100,000 nor the total annual deaths of 2.8 million.

It is a very small cause of death in the US and so sensitive to various counting and reporting differences but even if it was undercounted and corrected upward it will still be a small cause of death. Because of personal circumstances or fears or residency location there are a lot of people emotionally invested in quarantine but in context of the overall health of the US it is (and will be) a minor contributor to death at the national level. When there is sufficient emotional investment there is no rational argument that will sway the held belief.

I posted a slide presentation from DHS/bioweapons lab on a different thread concerning sunlight killing this virus. There was an emotional response and claims the document was clearly forged. A few days later the head of DHS called a press conference explaining that their lab results showed that sunlight has a strong killing effect on this virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

 

[mjkacmom]

The link is to the CDC US death rate report for 2017. The report shows 2.8 million total US deaths for the year and 56,000 of those due to Influenza/Pneumonia. The deaths attributed to Covid 19 are small enough relative to total deaths that differences in counting methods can materially impact the Covid 19 death total but still have no material impact on the total US death rate of 864/100,000 nor the total annual deaths of 2.8 million.

It is a very small cause of death in the US and so sensitive to various counting and reporting differences but even if it was undercounted and corrected upward it will still be a small cause of death. Because of personal circumstances or fears or residency location there are a lot of people emotionally invested in quarantine but in context of the overall health of the US it is (and will be) a minor contributor to death at the national level. When there is sufficient emotional investment there is no rational argument that will sway the held belief.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

In 2017, there were about 1300 deaths due to flu in my state, In the last 2 months, there have been over 7700 COVID deaths. Once things open up, this is spreading from the hot spots, I hope everyone is ready!

 

[pahoben]

In 2017, there were about 1300 deaths due to flu in my state, In the last 2 months, there have been over 7700 COVID deaths. Once things open up, this is spreading from the hot spots, I hope everyone is ready!

I can only speak for my family but yes more than ready. I see your state is always about the worst state for death rate from chronic lung disease-typically 49th. Just out of curiosity is that because of high smoking rates or air pollution or something else?

 

[mjkacmom]

I can only speak for my family but yes more than ready. I see your state is always about the worst state for deaths from chronic lung disease-typically 49th. Just out of curiosity is that because of high smoking rates or pollution or something else?

Where do you see that? We are average for pollution and on the lower side for smokers (can’t even smoke in state parks or on beaches here).

 

[pahoben]

From the CDC reports for your state. It is consistent year after year so strange then if no readily apparent cause.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newjersey/newjersey.htm

 

[mjkacmom]

From the CDC reports for your state. It is consistent year after year so strange then if no readily apparent cause.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newjersey/newjersey.htm

I think you are reading that wrong.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/lung_disease_mortality/lung_disease.htm

 

[mjkacmom]

It appears we have one of the lowest?

 

[pahoben]

I think you are reading that wrong.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/lung_disease_mortality/lung_disease.htm

You are right and my apologies. Only high in septicemia and OD’s. The other very unusual characteristic is NJ has very very high population density.

I haven’t been on here recently. Did they institute a time out on new posts?

 

[sam_gordon]

The CARES ACT states that Medicare will pay an additional 20% on top of contracted rates for in-patient bills of Medicare recipients who test positive for COVID.

That makes no sense to me. How do they justify that?

 

[mjkacmom]

You are right and my apologies. Only high in septicemia and OD’s.

No problem, I had no idea my state was the 11th healthiest state, although MA, CT and NY are even healthier. imagine the numbers if they were unhealthy states.

 

[Pea-n-Me]

That makes no sense to me. How do they justify that?

Medicare recognizes that the cost of care is much higher for these patients. Which is a little surprising to me because normally they fine hospitals for as much as they can.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

No problem, I had no idea my state was the 11th healthiest state, although MA, CT and NY are even healthier. imagine the numbers if they were unhealthy states.

Also in NJ - we got slammed because so many residents commute daily to NYC. Those trains are packed. By the time everyone realized that we were in trouble, it was too late. The NY Metro counties were already swamped, and it was spreading outward.

NYC, or more specifically the way that people travel to/from/within the city, is an environment perfect for the spread of communicable diseases.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Michigan is the only state that looks like this. Almost all other states look like Kentucky.
Either they are testing people in the wrong areas, over reporting deaths, under reporting positive tests, not doing a good handling serious patients. Something is wrong in the state, and the protesting wont help. Note though the problem was happening before the additional effects the protesting might have, still if I was living there I wouldn't want to be standing with a bunch of people unmasked.
IMO there should be a lot more testing being done. Other states seem to be doing more and ther eis no way there positive test trend should have maxed on the 15th day of testing. Again IMO positives tests are being under reported, no other states trend peaked at 15 days. So I feel the death trend is probably more realistic then the positive test trend.

 

[pahoben]

No problem, I had no idea my state was the 11th healthiest state, although MA, CT and NY are even healthier. imagine the numbers if they were unhealthy states.

I looked at the hardest hit counties in NJ and Bergen, Hudson, and Essex have almost half the fatalities and about one quarter of the state’s population. The American Lung Association rates these counties F in air quality. Bergen and Hudson have the worst air quality in the state.
https://www.nj.com/weather/2017/04/these_15_counties_have_the_worst_air_pollution_in.html

 

[mjkacmom]

I looked at the hardest hit counties in NJ and Bergen, Hudson, and Essex have almost half the fatalities and about one quarter of the state’s population. The American Lung Association rates these counties F in air quality. Bergen and Hudson have the worst air quality in the state.
https://www.nj.com/weather/2017/04/these_15_counties_have_the_worst_air_pollution_in.html

But still much better than California! The main reason why these counties are so hard hit is because we have many NYC commuters, train, bus and ferry, and then buses and trains on the other side of the river. Pair a very contagious virus with close contact, and you have many cases. My town is up to 446 cases and 30 deaths (population 28,000, social distancing since 3/16). Plus we have 3 NYC metro airports in close proximity, 2 are international.

 

[sam_gordon]

Medicare recognizes that the cost of care is much higher for these patients. Which is a little surprising to me because normally they fine hospitals for as much as they can.

Please explain. Does it cost more to put (and keep) a vent in a Covid patient than another patient? Don't the procedures and medicines cost the same regardless of what the diagnosis is?

 

[pahoben]

Also in NJ - we got slammed because so many residents commute daily to NYC. Those trains are packed. By the time everyone realized that we were in trouble, it was too late. The NY Metro counties were already swamped, and it was spreading outward.

NYC, or more specifically the way that people travel to/from/within the city, is an environment perfect for the spread of communicable diseases.

Here is an interesting wiki from 2008 for public transportation commutes by city in the US. As you and mjkacmom point out NYC metro is far and away in a class by itself. NJ otherwise still has very high use of public transportation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_high_transit_ridership

 

[mjkacmom]

Here is an interesting wiki from 2008 for public transportation commutes by city in the US. As you and mjkacmom point out NYC metro is far and away in a class by itself. NJ otherwise has very high use of public transportation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_high_transit_ridership

My mom grew up in Jersey City, her grandparents came over from Ireland and landed there, my dad had to teach her to drive because they didn’t have a car, very few had cars.