It Looks Like the Death Numbers are Being Inflated

[DisneyElite4]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/healt...h-Counts-COVID-19-Pneumonia-and-Influenza.pdf

I’m so confused. Does this mean there were really only 11,000 Coronavirus deaths? Why would the CDC lie about that?

 

[wombat_5606]

I’m so confused. Does this mean there were really only 11,000 Coronavirus deaths? Why would the CDC lie about that?

They aren't lying. You have to read the "fine print".


*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.

 

[Kevin42565]

I’m so confused. Does this mean there were really only 11,000 Coronavirus deaths? Why would the CDC lie about that?

Check the date on the link. It’s 3 weeks old.

 

[wombat_5606]

Check the date on the link. It’s 3 weeks old.

Good point!

 

[PPFlight75]

They aren't lying. You have to read the "fine print".


*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes.

Yet they report the death numbers ever day. If we are waiting on death certificates, then the question would be is it really going to be 11,000 or 56,000(based only on the numbers in this report)?

 

[DisneyElite4]

Check the date on the link. It’s 3 weeks old.

Should have done that first before getting upset!

 

[wombat_5606]

Yet they report the death numbers ever day. If we are waiting on death certificates, then the question would be is it really going to be 11,000 or 56,000(based only on the numbers in this report)?

The numbers you are seeing in trackers for your location are being counted on a daily basis by the agencies responsible. Someone has already pointed out that this chart is 3 weeks old. A lot has changed in 3 weeks.

The CDC is a federal office, it's going to take them a while to catch up.

 

[PPFlight75]

Should have done that first before getting upset!

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/Current as of May 1st

 

[wombat_5606]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/Current as of May 1st

Go back and look at the page and you see this. The page is actually called the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease.


Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 1, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

Also additional information further down the page -

Why these numbers are different
Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.
Things to know about the data
Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as additional records are received and processed. Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years. Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions report deaths on a daily basis, while others report deaths weekly or monthly. In addition, vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities.

 

[PPFlight75]

The numbers you are seeing in trackers for your location are being counted on a daily basis by the agencies responsible. Someone has already pointed out that this chart is 3 weeks old. A lot has changed in 3 weeks.

The CDC is a federal office, it's going to take them a while to catch up.

I understand all of that. My comment is really in response to death certificates. If we are waiting on death certificates as the final determinant, they often take quite a while as well.

 

[PPFlight75]

Go back and look at the page and you see this. The page is actually called the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease.


Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 1, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

Yep, get that.

 

[wombat_5606]

Yep, get that.

Sorry, I misunderstood your point.

 

[PPFlight75]

Sorry, I misunderstood your point.

No worries. I would never make the statement that I believe anyone is purposely falsely reporting.

I would add though that there is a lot going on with these patients, and they are very ill. As a healthcare provider, I work with physicians who are working in stressful circumstances and many of these patients are suspected of having covid based on symptoms but are subsequently negative. In a few instances, physicians were so sure they were covid positive that they tested them over and over and they remained negative. If these patients had died before the final test results, would they have a suspected covid diagnosis? I don't know. I just think it's complicated. Now that we have faster testing this should not be an issue.

 

[wombat_5606]

No worries. I would never make the statement that I believe anyone is purposely falsely reporting.

I would add though that there is a lot going on with these patients, and they are very ill. As a healthcare provider, I work with physicians who are working in stressful circumstances and many of these patients are suspected of having covid based on symptoms but are subsequently negative. In a few instances, physicians were so sure they were covid positive that they tested them over and over and they remained negative. If these patients had died before the final test results, would they have a suspected covid diagnosis? I don't know. I just think it's complicated. Now that we have faster testing this should not be an issue.

Yes, I agree it's complicated.

Plus I think some of the tests being used are giving false positives and some are giving false negatives.

 

[PPFlight75]

Yes, I agree it's complicated.

Plus I think some of the tests being used are giving false positives and some are giving false negatives.

I completely agree.

 

[sam_gordon]

I'll just leave this here (it fits in another thread, but it's funnier here):

 

[shelemm]

This whole thread ignores how African-Americans are being tested/traced/identified as victims. Since that community is disproportionately affected, those numbers can make a big difference.

So how is your state / the federal government dealing with this disparity?

 

[mom2rtk]

I'll just leave this here (it fits in another thread, but it's funnier here):
View attachment 492167

Justifiable homicide.

 

[Notrealname]

Justifiable homocide.

Ya might want to fix your spelling . . .

 

[mom2rtk]

Ya might want to fix your spelling . . .

Oops, I should hold fast to my rule of no tiny typing on my phone!