Is there any downside to buying a fixed week if I won't use that week?

[ziravan]

I would assume that if you cancel your next years Fixed Week, and borrow those points in, you lose your fixed week the next year altogether.

My guess would be that the week is fixed, only if current UY points are there to make the reservation.

It would seem that it basically breaks the 11 month rule(legally). Your week 10 reservation in 2024 is already made. In the even you cancel to borrow, then you try to make it at the 11 month window with everyone else.

But there are people who know more about the ins and outs of this that I do.

I believe that Poly WILL require 11 month booking during DVC prime season unless something changes.

1. Studios are oversold to bungalows by 25%. What that means is more demand in studios. Specifically, it means that points traded out are likely to open up bungalows first.

2. Poly is a monorail resort.

3. Poly is a F&W Epcot resort (2 min walk to Epcot Monorail).

4. As DVC grows, demand continues to crunch into DVC prime season at Epcot and Monorail resorts (Poly is both). As time moves on and more and more members are competing for those spaces, demand will back up into the 11 month window.

I own a week 44 Lake View fixed week. Right now, today, with 60% of the resort avail and ~23% of the resort sold, the F&W half marathon weekend (2nd weekend of our fixed week) is gone for both Stnd and LV.

With 1/3 owner to availability pressure, you need the 11 month window to book today. What happens when it's 1:1, 100% of owners to 100% avail? My guess is that weekend WILL book out at 8am at the 11 month window.

There's absolutely no downside to my owning a fixed week there.
Plus. MNSSHP some years, MVMCP other years, and rarely, both. F&W great weather. We're very happy with our fixed week. If I'm wrong about needing it, no worries, I have a 10% point pad.

If I'm right? Well, what would be the value of having an early Dec fixed week VGF studio today? The only problem is that wasn't apparent while VGF was for sale.

 

[pangyal]

Thanks everyone. Your comments were very helpful. There seems to be no downside except when you need to sell, but this risk can be mitigated by buying it at a good price initially.

I think that if and when you sell, you can always spin it as a positive as long as the buyer understands what they are getting. I think that brokers and buyers alike are still murky on this concept and that they don't make it clear that you aren't locked into that week and always have the option of opting out, thereby retaining all of the flexibility that the DVC system has to offer. With so few studios, VGF is notoriously hard to book at any time of the year (see Skier_Pete's gold star thread) and I cannot imagine that a fixed week would be seen as anything but an asset rather than a liability.

 

[pangyal]

I believe that Poly WILL require 11 month booking during DVC prime season unless something changes.

1. Studios are oversold to bungalows by 25%. What that means is more demand in studios. Specifically, it means that points traded out are likely to open up bungalows first.

2. Poly is a monorail resort.

3. Poly is a F&W Epcot resort (2 min walk to Epcot Monorail).

4. As DVC grows, demand continues to crunch into DVC prime season at Epcot and Monorail resorts (Poly is both). As time moves on and more and more members are competing for those spaces, demand will back up into the 11 month window.

I own a week 44 Lake View fixed week. Right now, today, with 60% of the resort avail and ~23% of the resort sold, the F&W half marathon weekend (2nd weekend of our fixed week) is gone for both Stnd and LV.

With 1/3 owner to availability pressure, you need the 11 month window to book today. What happens when it's 1:1, 100% of owners to 100% avail? My guess is that weekend WILL book out at 8am at the 11 month window.

There's absolutely no downside to my owning a fixed week there.
Plus. MNSSHP some years, MVMCP other years, and rarely, both. F&W great weather. We're very happy with our fixed week. If I'm wrong about needing it, no worries, I have a 10% point pad.

If I'm right? Well, what would be the value of having an early Dec fixed week VGF studio today? The only problem is that wasn't apparent while VGF was for sale.

I agree with this and similar posts every time I see them.

If anyone is in the fence about buying a fixed week, resale or direct, I suggest they try looking at booking VGF at 11 months out during the last three months of the year and then see how they would feel about having that reservation taken care of a month before you would need your flash fingers at 8am on the dot lest you miss out on that last available Lakeview studio.

I do believe that Poly will go a similar way, given time. Yes, there are over 350 studios, but many more than 350 people have bought PVB points. And as it's been pointed out, most of those are not booking the bungalows.

 

[disneylovinfamilyof6]

I would absolutely buy a fixed week at VGF of it aligned with our family's typical travel dates. Anywhere else? Doubt it. Maybe at VWL2 if and when it's offered, but it would only make sense for us on a holiday week.

 

[jerseyduke]

I believe that Poly WILL require 11 month booking during DVC prime season unless something changes.

1. Studios are oversold to bungalows by 25%. What that means is more demand in studios. Specifically, it means that points traded out are likely to open up bungalows first.

2. Poly is a monorail resort.

3. Poly is a F&W Epcot resort (2 min walk to Epcot Monorail).

4. As DVC grows, demand continues to crunch into DVC prime season at Epcot and Monorail resorts (Poly is both). As time moves on and more and more members are competing for those spaces, demand will back up into the 11 month window.

I own a week 44 Lake View fixed week. Right now, today, with 60% of the resort avail and ~23% of the resort sold, the F&W half marathon weekend (2nd weekend of our fixed week) is gone for both Stnd and LV.

With 1/3 owner to availability pressure, you need the 11 month window to book today. What happens when it's 1:1, 100% of owners to 100% avail? My guess is that weekend WILL book out at 8am at the 11 month window.

There's absolutely no downside to my owning a fixed week there.
Plus. MNSSHP some years, MVMCP other years, and rarely, both. F&W great weather. We're very happy with our fixed week. If I'm wrong about needing it, no worries, I have a 10% point pad.

If I'm right? Well, what would be the value of having an early Dec fixed week VGF studio today? The only problem is that wasn't apparent while VGF was for sale.

Not sure why you quoted my post, you did not address anything in it.

But, while the 11 month issue at the Poly is something that will have to be seen, as I said, if you get the extra points when you cancel (which I thought was the case, and has been confirmed), I do not see a downside to buying a fixed week. If I called today, that is exactly what I would buy. It is possible that it could affect resale to a degree, but that is an if...and an if you sell.

 

[ziravan]

I think it also depends on the resort.

Due to the size of the Polynesian, I can not foresee 11 month availability being an issue. Assuming that that is the case, the fixed week there, in my eyes, loses some of, if not all of, it's value.

Move over to the Grand Floridian, a Fixed week 48 or Week 49, particularly a studio is worth the premium. On the resale market, I would expect that to go for more than a comparable number of points. (If I could go back in time, my VGF contract would be a fixed week)

I am also speaking under the assumption that if you cancel a fixed week, you actually get the extra points that were the premium. Correct me if I am wrong there.

I just quoted the wrong post. I was intending to quote your comment about expecting Poly to not need a fixed week.

There are multiple schools of thought on that.

IF it does turn out that a fixed week prevents the need to compete at 8am 11 months out, then it will be a fantastic benefit.

Thing is, that's an unknown until Poly sells out. It's possible it might take 10 yrs of pressure penting to impact Poly that way. Who knows?

 

[suebeelin]

I think the poly will sell out fast. I actually love poly after my first stay in January, and hoping to switch in on the 7mo mark during our December trip.

We would willingly giving up std bwv and std BLT (our current ressies) for a std poly. I think if this is how I feel about poly, many people wiil also feel the same way.

If we weren't on a fixed income for another 2 yrs, I would totally buy fixed week at poly.

 

[pangyal]

I think the poly will sell out fast. I actually love this poly after my first stay in January, and hoping to switch in come our December trip.

We would willingly giving up std bwv and std BLT for a std poly. I think if this is how I feel about poly, many people wiil also feel the same way.

If we weren't in a fixed income for another 2years, I would totally buy fixed week at poly.

I agree, the studios are amazing, as is the location. We only bought 100 points instead of a fixed week because a) We scored a great deal on a resale contract, and b) Because we like doing Poly for 4-5 nights before a one-bedroom as part of a split stay, and we wanted the flexibility to decide which trip of the year to do that particular split. We actually spoke to DVC and considered buying a fixed week direct pretty seriously.

 

[wdrl]

I think DVC's Guaranteed Week product is really quite simple to understand. However, I also think that many Guides and resale brokers who specialize in DVC deeds still don't understand the GW product.

At VGF, only 277 GW deeds have been sold. These deeds account for only 3.93% of the points sold at the resort. None of the seven different accommodation types have reached the 35% cap set by DVD for any Week. This includes for Weeks #51 (23 deeds) and #49 (22 deeds), the two most popular weeks on the VGF Guaranteed Week calendar.

At PVB, the Guaranteed Week sales have been extremely weak. The Poly has sold 85 GW deeds, but only 9 deeds in the last seven months. The GW deeds account for 2.3% of the Poly points sold to date. Week #52 is the most popular Week at the Poly, but only 17 deeds have been sold for that week. The maximum number of GW deeds that could be sold for any week is 132, so its extremely unlikely that DVD will ever approach its 35% cap.

Its been ages since I sat through a DVC sales presentation, so I'm very curious how Guides discuss the topic of the Guaranteed Week option with prospective buyers. Do they even mention it?

As previously stated in this thread, GW owners can bank and borrow their points just like traditional points owners. However, to do so they have to FIRST opt out of their GW reservation for that Use Year. And once they elect to opt out, they lose the privilege of having the guaranteed reservation for that Use Year. So, if a GW owner chooses to bank their 2016 UY points into their 2017 UY they must give up their guaranteed reservation for 2016 AND their banked points are treated exactly like traditional points that are banked from one UY to the next. They CANNOT be used to secure a GW reservation.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I've also noticed that the fixed weeks for the larger units tend to stay on the market longer. So, I'd say one risk could be a longer resale and potentially less when selling. I think there are only a very few weeks in the studios that will sell quickly. The rest, I'd likely buy a non-fixed week unless it was something I might use now and then or just happened to be very close to what I needed for points. I've seen some "bad" fixed weeks where the week was at the end of the UY. So, even it you would use it a late cancellation would be a problem. Personally I'd definitely skip those.

Agree. An even better purchase is smaller "non-fixed" contracts. Those may net more resales dollars than the fixed week.

 

[Dean]

Agree. An even better purchase is smaller "non-fixed" contracts. Those may net more resales dollars than the fixed week.

I agree a very large points package might be a problem to get a fixed week though IF the fixed week is of value, it still might be the best way to go. However, I think mid sized contracts are worth more to the individual than multiple smaller points packages. While it's wise to consider a possible exit strategy, one shouldn't go in planning to sell. And if one buys what they can afford then the chances of having to sell are far less.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

For those of you who are interested, I did make an offer on the fixed week, and the offer was accepted. It is currently in ROFR.
mitnosnhoj---$141.50-$28,209-186-VGF-DEC- 186/15, 186/16, 186/17- FW#26 Standard-sent 3/30

 

[supersnoop]

For those of you who are interested, I did make an offer on the fixed week, and the offer was accepted. It is currently in ROFR.
mitnosnhoj---$141.50-$28,209-186-VGF-DEC- 186/15, 186/16, 186/17- FW#26 Standard-sent 3/30

Congrats! Although, I must say, that's a very awkward choice for a fixed week.

 

[CarolMN]

Congrats! Although, I must say, that's a very awkward choice for a fixed week.

FW#26 is last week of June and may include a portion of the July 4 weekend (when 7/4 falls on a weekend). I'd say it is a popular vacation week for many.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

This is a very popular summer week. I think the OP made a good choice. Probably the best summer week of all.

 

[Dean]

FW#26 is last week of June and may include a portion of the July 4 weekend (when 7/4 falls on a weekend). I'd say it is a popular vacation week for many.

Week 26 should be 4th of July most years.

 

[supersnoop]

Week 26 should be 4th of July most years.

Seems like less than half the time, and not at all in the next five years.

 

[Dean]

Seems like less than half the time, and not at all in the next five years.

4th of July falls in week 26 for 2018, 2019 & 2020. It's roughly almost 2/3 of the time for Sat to Sat weeks, I'd guess it's just a little less for Sun to Sun long term. It's weeks 27 for 21-23 & week 26 for the following 3 years.

 

[pangyal]

That is our fixed week, also at VGF. For us, it includes the Canada Day holiday almost all of the time, plus our anniversary is on the 1st as well. Our kiddo will be out of school during that week about 80% of the weeks I've plotted out for the next ten years (lol), and the first days of that week booked up at VGF right on the 11-month mark this year, with Lakeview selling out that same day, which is what we have. For the few years where kiddo won't be out of school yet, we will rent out the points and book using another contract at AKL Concierge or a one bedroom instead for almost the same point value.

OP, I think if you ever want to travel in summer and book at VGF, that's a great choice (and I assume you are from the US, so the 4th of July dates would apply to you as well).