Is Disney World becoming a shell of its former self?

[manning]

Arrogance in a company or it's fans is not only unattractive, it -- as history tells us -- is a critical weakness. And here's a parable of that:

Over twenty years ago, in the early 90’s, a firm named Motorola (remember them?) didn't just own but dominated the mobile phone market.

In fact, that company was the creator of mobile phone technology, beginning with walkie-talkies developed for the US Government prior to WWII. They were a pioneer in the development of radio, television and cellular telephony. That was precisely why their product and technology development capabilities put them in the driver’s seat when the first cellular phone systems appeared in the mid 1980’s.

They reached their peak with a tiny black clamshell, the first of its kind, called the StarTAC, in 1996.

That mobile device is remembered because it “defined” the market for handsets when analog technology dominated the operator landscape. Motorola’s presence was so strong, that their market share exceeded 60% throughout the Americas, as well as in many other markets around the globe.

But the winds of change arrived, in the form of a movement from analog to digital mobile phone networks. The latter could handle significantly more traffic than the analog systems Motorola was using. And it was precisely on the cusp of the migration to digital that a Motorola executive was famously quoted as stating: “Who’s going to buy a digital phone?”

Which sounds kind of like "nothing the competition does will ever allow them to overtake us."

As network operators began rapidly making the migration to digital, Motorola -- which had become arrogant and complacent -- wasn't prepared to move quickly into digital handsets. By 1996, operators simply refused purchase any more analog phones. Two years slater, Nokia surpassed Motorola and became the largest mobile phone supplier in the world.

Motorola is now #14.

Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

An there is Kodak. Bet they wish today they went digital. The powers there didn't think digital photography would catch on like it did.

 

[Hunterr]

Much like android vs iOS, the Disney vs universal thing is great for everyone. Competition makes companies step up.
Disney will always rule this town, but it's ice that they have a formidable foe to, if not be inspired by, then one up.

While I'm not psyched about avatar land, the same could be said for me about Harry Potter. I've never seen any avatar films or Harry Potter films, but maaaaan I looove the land(s) universal created.
You just know Avatar will be just as awesome and immersive.

I can't even imagine what they will do with a fully realized Star Wars land!

 

[DDLand]

MM+

Intent to return rates are up, attendance is up, hotel occupancy is up, and guest spending is up.

Yeah, MyMagic+ is totally on the same level...

 

[DDLand]

Much like android vs iOS, the Disney vs universal thing is great for everyone. Competition makes companies step up.
Disney will always rule this town, but it's ice that they have a formidable foe to, if not be inspired by, then one up.

While I'm not psyched about avatar land, the same could be said for me about Harry Potter. I've never seen any avatar films or Harry Potter films, but maaaaan I looove the land(s) universal created.
You just know Avatar will be just as awesome and immersive.

I can't even imagine what they will do with a fully realized Star Wars land!

It's been true of Universal, they've been building tons of new attractions and hotels in order to bring down Disney. However, internally Disney has reportedly not even taken notice of Universal's moves. They had years advance notice of Harry Potter. They did nothing. They've had years to react to Harry Potter. They've done nothing. They knew DA was on the way. They did nothing.

Star Wars is being built because DHS should and can have better attendance. Not because Universal's forcing them to. MK is going to be building because they're nearly full. Not because Universal is forcing them to. Avatar is being built as part of a massive upgrade to the entire "half day" park. Not because Universal forced them.

They're that arrogant.

 

[ParrotBill]

We never waited very long for a boat but if there seemed to be a big crowd we just walked. The parks aren't very far.

I don't agree with much of what you said otherwise too but I realize that this is subjective so neither of us are wrong.

Yes, I agree to disagree on the rest... but the park is 0.5 mile walk, and the boats are tiny - the size of the Poly/GF or CR/FW/WL boats. Third or fourth boat in the morning at opening time, with 10-15 minutes between boats. I compare that to Boardwalk, a 0.3 mile walk with huge boats on 10 minute intervals. A family with small kids, or elderly, or a wife who needs a cane to walk, cannot start their day with a half mile walk. It feels like transportation is an afterthought. At Disney, it's in their DNA. Suppose you had to walk to DHS from Boardwalk and Beach Club all the time because the boats were always a long wait? Too far. This was late August, in case you were wondering about the crowd levels. Not peak, but pretty busy.

 

[pilferk]

An there is Kodak. Bet they wish today they went digital. The powers there didn't think digital photography would catch on like it did.

I've used precisely that example, in much the same way the Motorola example is used above, in previous conversations on this board.

Kodak shrugged off digital as a fad, and doubled down on the ill fated APS (INDEX SHEETS!!) instead.

And, for Kodak..it wasn't just about the film and cameras. They were THE NUMBER ONE manufacturer of film development and printing equipment, as well as the #1 producer of photographic paper. They were the #1 outlab facilities in the world (meaning THEY processed, printed, and shipped more film/pictures than any other single entity). They basically ruled the market (followed, distantly at #2, by FujiFilm) from beginning to end.

And they bet AGAINST technology. They bet AGAINST a market shift, because they thought they WERE the market. They thought THEY dictated to the consumer what the consumer wanted.

The results were not pretty.....

It's a cautionary tale, for sure.

 

[rteetz]

attendance is up

MM+ or not i fell like attendance would still be up because it was rising prior to the rollout

 

[DDLand]

MM+ or not i fell like attendance would still be up because it was rising prior to the rollout

I can't argue with that. I was pointing out that MM+ isn't leading to Disney's demise like the other poster was implying.

 

[peg110]

It's been true of Universal, they've been building tons of new attractions and hotels in order to bring down Disney. However, internally Disney has reportedly not even taken notice of Universal's moves. They had years advance notice of Harry Potter. They did nothing. They've had years to react to Harry Potter. They've done nothing. They knew DA was on the way. They did nothing.

Star Wars is being built because DHS should and can have better attendance. Not because Universal's forcing them to. MK is going to be building because they're nearly full. Not because Universal is forcing them to. Avatar is being built as part of a massive upgrade to the entire "half day" park. Not because Universal forced them.

They're that arrogant.

Not sure where you are going. Your first paragraph is downing Disney for not taking notice of Universal despite having ample time too. Your second paragraph re-affirms that Disney is expanding while not a result of Universal's efforts. Seems to me though however, that Universal is NOT the threat to Disney as some may seem.

As has been continuously pointed out, Crowds are up, profits are up... Why change? Only to increase more profits (and hopefully reduce more complaints).

I like Disney and cannot say much about Universal as I have never been there. I am a bit "Gun Shy" so to speak because the cost verses what I can only perceive as the value still scares me that I might be wasting my money. Personally, I think both Disney and Universal should offer a "Give us a try" special for first timers.

While I do like Disney and think that they need to be innovative, I still like that much of it stays the same. We were actually a little upset when Mickey's House was moved out of Fantasy Land. It was there the one time we went and gone the next. We were looking forward to it. We also get that progress (such as it is) does need to occur. My biggest gripe about Disney is the Crowds and how, for us, it completely diminishes the value that we get. Sadly in an effort to control crowds (or probably more like maximize profits) the more crowded it is (or projected to be) the more EXPENSIVE it is too. Ah well..... The way of the world we live in.

 

[DDLand]

Not sure where you are going. Your first paragraph is downing Disney for not taking notice of Universal despite having ample time too. Your second paragraph re-affirms that Disney is expanding while not a result of Universal's efforts. Seems to me though however, that Universal is NOT the threat to Disney as some may seem.

You're absolutely right. I've been one of the most ardent "Disney is fine, but it's missing opportunity" camp. They should be building because they're missing out on hundreds of millions in potential revenue from their weaker parks and lower capacity. I think they should build because it's good for business, not because Universal is gunning down on them. Universal has not, to at least my untrained eye, had any effect on WDW. That's after 5 years of relentless attack. I also think comparing the highly competitive and commoditized consumer electronics market to the Resort Destination Market where WDW remains the only fully integrated vacation destination, is not extremely on point. It's honestly in a league of its own globally, and I don't think for the foreseeable future it's going to be "screwed."

I think you and I agree a lot about this, a quote of mine on my own thoughts a couple posts back:

For years all we've heard is Disney World is becoming unbearable for x y and z reasons and they'll be doomed. I've started to call this WDW's day of reckoning. When all of Disney's sins will come back to haunt the evil corporation and destroy them for all the supposed ills they've committed against us the guest. Whether it's due to overcrowding, lack of new investment, or declining quality there are those who see its doom ahead.

So far nothing has happened.

That's not to say WDW couldn't lose its way, but once again so far nothing has happened. In fact, the opposite has been taking place. WDC keeps reporting record Revenue, Profit, and attendance with a key contributor coming from WDW. There is no immediate panic, and I don't think there should be any panic yet. With that said, there is risk. There's always risk. We could call WDW's response to Universal Studios non existent, and that would be accurate. However WDW has been investing wisely with MyMagic and preserving the WDW ecosystem and protecting the Resort from outside pressures by locking people on property with multiple different incentives.

There's risk. Just not a whole lot at this juncture.

 

[Planogirl]

Yes, I agree to disagree on the rest... but the park is 0.5 mile walk, and the boats are tiny - the size of the Poly/GF or CR/FW/WL boats. Third or fourth boat in the morning at opening time, with 10-15 minutes between boats. I compare that to Boardwalk, a 0.3 mile walk with huge boats on 10 minute intervals. A family with small kids, or elderly, or a wife who needs a cane to walk, cannot start their day with a half mile walk. It feels like transportation is an afterthought. At Disney, it's in their DNA. Suppose you had to walk to DHS from Boardwalk and Beach Club all the time because the boats were always a long wait? Too far. This was late August, in case you were wondering about the crowd levels. Not peak, but pretty busy.

I feel fortunate that this never happened to us. Maybe they need bigger boats?

Universal is still growing and changing. I have complete faith that they will get it together. Besides I'd rather wait for a boat than a bus any day.

 

[7series]

Arrogance in a company or it's fans is not only unattractive, it -- as history tells us -- is a critical weakness. And here's a parable of that:

Over twenty years ago, in the early 90’s, a firm named Motorola (remember them?) didn't just own but dominated the mobile phone market.

In fact, that company was the creator of mobile phone technology, beginning with walkie-talkies developed for the US Government prior to WWII. They were a pioneer in the development of radio, television and cellular telephony. That was precisely why their product and technology development capabilities put them in the driver’s seat when the first cellular phone systems appeared in the mid 1980’s.

They reached their peak with a tiny black clamshell, the first of its kind, called the StarTAC, in 1996.

That mobile device is remembered because it “defined” the market for handsets when analog technology dominated the operator landscape. Motorola’s presence was so strong, that their market share exceeded 60% throughout the Americas, as well as in many other markets around the globe.

But the winds of change arrived, in the form of a movement from analog to digital mobile phone networks. The latter could handle significantly more traffic than the analog systems Motorola was using. And it was precisely on the cusp of the migration to digital that a Motorola executive was famously quoted as stating: “Who’s going to buy a digital phone?”

Which sounds kind of like "nothing the competition does will ever allow them to overtake us."

As network operators began rapidly making the migration to digital, Motorola -- which had become arrogant and complacent -- wasn't prepared to move quickly into digital handsets. By 1996, operators simply refused purchase any more analog phones. Two years slater, Nokia surpassed Motorola and became the largest mobile phone supplier in the world.

Motorola is now #14.

Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

It is not arrogance, but thanks for being so judgmental. I have always wondered why boards all about Disney are so full of nasty people. The fact is, Disney is a world unto itself. It isn't just an amusement park, its' something special, and for all the complaining about them here, look at their attendance numbers. For 2014, Universal's two parks in Orlando placed 11th and 16th in attendance. Both of them put together didn't equal just the Magic Kingdom. Not by a long shot. Nine of the top ten were Disney parks. The numbers so far for 2015 look similar. While Universal has increased it numbers, so has WDW and the gap remains. BTW, the phone analogy, for all it's detail, is not relevant. There was nothing magic about Motorola or their phones. They were not loved by generations. They were just phones. Not so with Disney. They are not just another amusement park. When discussions of theme parks crop up, there is Disney, and then there are all the rest. You see it in people's eyes when they talk about it. There's a magic about Disney. When people talk about Universal, other than Harry Potter, which is pretty cool, it's just another park with rides.

 

[TwoMisfits]

There is magic and love for OUR generations (aged 30+) for Disney. But it does not take more than a generation or two to go from magical to meh if one rests on their laurels...heck, in this day and age, it may not even take a generation...

 

[Mazz519]

Last December we did a Disney Universal trip, 2 nuts at Universal and 7 at Disney. Got to admit Universal is surpassing Disney in everyway when it comes to Price wait times for rides ( we stayed at universal resort and did not wait on line for any rides) and overall enjoyments and excitement of their parks. Love Disney with all my heart but lately the price keeps going up as the quality of the service declines....

 

[mvk]

There is magic and love for OUR generations (aged 30+) for Disney. But it does not take more than a generation or two to go from magical to meh if one rests on their laurels...heck, in this day and age, it may not even take a generation...

Who is resting on their laurels? They have been putting out great content with original, classic, & acquired IPs. They're also throwing billions into WDW over the next 3-5 years. Spending the billions on technology over the past few years on MM+ will allow them to manage things better in the future with increase in guests and increase in capacity.

MM+ and Disney Springs are the infrastructure buildouts needed prior to the expanded resort. Seems like pretty good planning and use of resources though widely mocked here and elsewhere in the WDW internet community.

 

[Planogirl]

It is not arrogance, but thanks for being so judgmental. I have always wondered why boards all about Disney are so full of nasty people. The fact is, Disney is a world unto itself. It isn't just an amusement park, its' something special, and for all the complaining about them here, look at their attendance numbers. For 2014, Universal's two parks in Orlando placed 11th and 16th in attendance. Both of them put together didn't equal just the Magic Kingdom. Not by a long shot. Nine of the top ten were Disney parks. The numbers so far for 2015 look similar. While Universal has increased it numbers, so has WDW and the gap remains. BTW, the phone analogy, for all it's detail, is not relevant. There was nothing magic about Motorola or their phones. They were not loved by generations. They were just phones. Not so with Disney. They are not just another amusement park. When discussions of theme parks crop up, there is Disney, and then there are all the rest. You see it in people's eyes when they talk about it. There's a magic about Disney. When people talk about Universal, other than Harry Potter, which is pretty cool, it's just another park with rides.

This is your perception which is fine but not everyone feels the same as you. People have a variety of reasons for what they do and enjoy and the public can turn on a dime at times.

 

[Juliet25]

There is magic and love for OUR generations (aged 30+) for Disney. But it does not take more than a generation or two to go from magical to meh if one rests on their laurels...heck, in this day and age, it may not even take a generation...

I have to agree with this. As magical as Disney is for me (age 39), my kids (12, 7, and 4) just won't have the same relationship with the company that I do. Despite numerous trips to WDW, all the DVDs we have, and Disney Junior playing in the background while they played, Disney is just one company among many competing for their attention. I don't think this has as much to do with Disney resting on their laurels as other companies putting out products that rival Disney's in ways they didn't in my generation.

 

[rteetz]

I'm going to put out a reminder that the theme park numbers that are released by TEA are estimations. No park companies other than Tokyo Disneyland releases official numbers. It's actually said that MK was probably already at or over 20 million last year. The next problem is the fact that MK is almost 10 million people ahead of the other WDW parks. MK should always be ahead but most definitely not by that much.

 

[Josh Hendy]

They're also throwing billions into WDW over the next 3-5 years.

I'm not saying that they're NOT throwing billions into WDW, but I would like to point out that this is still just a rumor. And the rumor has been getting tossed around for weeks without any actually solid basis other than anonymous internet people saying, "anonymous insiders are saying that ..."

It's possible that the rumor will turn out to be untrue. Not because the people spreading the rumors are mistaken or malicious, but because the longer that we wait for an official announcement, the greater the chance that circumstances will change. The world of money and finance is very, very volatile right now, and I mean volatile in a very negative way.

 

[rteetz]

I'm not saying that they're NOT throwing billions into WDW, but I would like to point out that this is still just a rumor. And the rumor has been getting tossed around for weeks without any actually solid basis other than anonymous internet people saying, "anonymous insiders are saying that ..."

It's possible that the rumor will turn out to be untrue. Not because the people spreading the rumors are mistaken or malicious, but because the longer that we wait for an official announcement, the greater the chance that circumstances will change. The world of money and finance is very, very volatile right now, and I mean volatile in a very negative way.

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