Since the announcement last week on the pricing at VGF direct, I have been looking at the cost difference between purchasing resale vs direct.
We already own a direct VGF contract from back in 2013, so the Blue Card is not something we needed.
First thing is I really wanted the same UY as our current contract, April and the main reason is for the simplicity of booking. I know you can transfer points from one contract to the other, but that will take up both of your transfers for those UY's. We also own other contracts in Feb and Dec, so I could have added to those UY, but again, the thought of losing the ability to transfer in or out for those UY was workable, but not appealing. I know I could book separate reservations in the different UY (same room category and size), but that again requires an extra step at check in to ask to stay in the same room. So for me, I could live with another UY but having the same one was a convenience I wanted. I could not find our UY in any resale contracts. One pro for direct.
Many of the resale contract listed are stripped. We were looking for between 100 - 150 would consider a few points more for the right contract. Another pro for direct as you will receive all of 2022 points.
Time that it takes to put an offer in on resale, acceptance, waiting for a seller to sign (some have cold feet and take their time) ROFR and then 60 days or so before points are loaded to your account. Direct is done as soon as you sign a contract and pay a deposit. This one was a wash, direct was nicer, but we could wait for resale if the price was right.
Closing cost are higher on resale than direct, almost double if you ask to remove title insurance on your direct purchase. Another pro for direct. Approximately a savings of about $3.00 a point (for us).
Dues, many sellers are asking for 2022 dues on resale (of course you could negotiate this), direct you will only pay for half a year of dues, from the date the new rooms are available, was told by our guide this would be June 18th. Another pro for direct as that is a savings of about $3.50 a point.
Pricing on current resale contracts. I felt that we should at least see a 20% reduction vs direct maybe closer to 25%, though I am not really sure what I personally value the loss of not being able to use at all new resorts moving forward, but because we have a lot of other points that can be, I felt we could live with that. On a 125 points contract direct is $199 per point, so at least $159 on resale would be better at $149, 150 direct is $197, so at least $157 resale preferable $147. No resale broker is listing those prices, so it would take an offer to be presented to the seller and maybe some negotiations back and forth. This takes time and the extra incentives to current owners expires in just over 2 weeks with Disney, so very short amount of time to make an offer, wait for an answer, if reject to move on and do it again. I also thought about sellers right now, their contracts were at least 20% devalued in 1 day by the announcement of pricing by Disney, are they willing to go lower yet? I think it may take a few months to see where resale is going with VGF and by that time the extra incentives will be over. Balance again is tipped towards direct.
Now a new member who would be required to purchase the minimal 150 direct points with DVC, this may change your perspective on what you are willing to pay for resale, especially for the smaller contracts.
The best resale contracts are gone within hours and you may have to go highest and best just like the current Real Estate market, that frenzy may make me offer more than I was really comfortable with, especially if I was beaten out on the first few offers. Just human nature, you want what you want and when you can not have it, you want it more.
ROFR, IMO that is not going to be a factor in the coming months with the millions of points Disney needs to sell, but I could be wrong and they may have set a price where they take the contracts back if the offer come in at that price.
My math: On a broker site 125 points listed at $190/point (all 2022 points and forward), plus buyer pays closing costs and 2022 dues, total $25,326.25 divided by 125 equals $202.61 per point actual costs. Direct with Disney, same 125 points is $25324.80 divided by 125 equals $202.60 per point. Of course broker listing everything is negotiable.
At the end it came down to pricing, time and convenience and direct came out on top.
Now if the stars had aligned with a resale contract with my UY, fully loaded and a really good price, we may have gone with resale.
We took the plunge and bought 125 direct. Talked to our guide, told him what we wanted, he took down the information, next day we had the contract via DocuSign, paid a 1/3 deposit on a credit card with the remaining balance due in a month and points were loaded the same day. Now of course the self doubt comes in with, should I have bought more.

One item to note if you have a Disney Chase Visa card you can get 6 months free financing on a direct purchase.
Good Luck with your decision.