Is anything selling?

[RuntheMouse]

Unless you are trying to get the points for a specific trip, I would say (try lol) to be patient. And don't be afraid to offer on "new" contract listings, someone who just listed their points might still be more motivated than someone who has had theirs sitting for sale for months ... if you are Certain you want something, maybe come in with a higher deposit, if you cannot come in with a higher sales price. Makes you look committed to both the seller and the broker (who might have more clout than you think on what is accepted). Good luck!

Bold is mine.

This is exactly what happened for us. I thought an old listing would be hungrier. I offered a low price on a listing that had been sitting for a couple of months (they have 3 contracts listed, same owner) and was countered $4 off list and firm. I said I’d pass and moved on. Week after a perfect match for us, loaded same use year listed $8 a point less than the other, we offered a ”crazy” $20 off of that and it was accepted, no counter.

The original contract we offered on is now reduced to $2 below their firm counter to us. There are deals out there, you’ll find your match.

 

[tom1944]

Bold is mine.

This is exactly what happened for us. I thought an old listing would be hungrier. I offered a low price on a listing that had been sitting for a couple of months (they have 3 contracts listed, same owner) and was countered $4 off list and firm. I said I’d pass and moved on. Week after a perfect match for us, loaded same use year listed $8 a point less than the other, we offered a ”crazy” $20 off of that and it was accepted, no counter.

The original contract we offered on is now reduced to $2 below their firm counter to us. There are deals out there, you’ll find your match.

I believe that was what happened on several of my BLT offers

 

[starfrenzy]

Bold is mine.

This is exactly what happened for us. I thought an old listing would be hungrier. I offered a low price on a listing that had been sitting for a couple of months (they have 3 contracts listed, same owner) and was countered $4 off list and firm. I said I’d pass and moved on. Week after a perfect match for us, loaded same use year listed $8 a point less than the other, we offered a ”crazy” $20 off of that and it was accepted, no counter.

The original contract we offered on is now reduced to $2 below their firm counter to us. There are deals out there, you’ll find your match.

This is really good to know!

 

[Cfabar1]

Yes, the new listings are the way to go. A lot of the older listings are incredibly ambivalent about selling. And, when they reduce, they do on their terms. I find it fascinating many old small contract listings even when they reduce their prices continue to say firm sale price. It tells me they really aren’t that motivated - especially since the cost difference on a small contract is minimal. Even a $20 per point differential on a 50 point contract is only $1000.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

The biggest issue I see as a DVC owner for both my own enjoyment and the potential resale price for my points is that although the parks have a limit on the number of people they can handle effectively, there isn't a similar limit on the capacity for accommodation. It already feels as if there are too many points out there for enjoyable park capacity, and yet Disney keeps adding beds and bodies, and the park experience is getting worse and worse. So yes, you may see the crowds and think that bodes well for DVC owners, but I think it actually bodes worse. If they keep building properties and adding points, people aren't only going to have more choices on where to stay (driving down the resale price), but the park experience will diminish and drive the price down as well.

 

[tom1944]

I took a look at my contract and the sellers purchased in 2006 for $98 dollars a point. After the commission and any fees, they pay they have a slight loss. Basically, break even.

They paid 17 years of dues about an average of $900 per year maybe less.

For $15,300 and whatever time loss value of their original $17,000 they had 17 years of deluxe resort accommodations.

That is a pretty good vacation investment.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

The biggest issue I see as a DVC owner for both my own enjoyment and the potential resale price for my points is that although the parks have a limit on the number of people they can handle effectively, there isn't a similar limit on the capacity for accommodation. It already feels as if there are too many points out there for enjoyable park capacity, and yet Disney keeps adding beds and bodies, and the park experience is getting worse and worse. So yes, you may see the crowds and think that bodes well for DVC owners, but I think it actually bodes worse. If they keep building properties and adding points, people aren't only going to have more choices on where to stay (driving down the resale price), but the park experience will diminish and drive the price down as well.

On-site stays are not nearly as important to crowd levels as off-sites. I don't think a new tower with 300 rooms every few years makes much of a difference.

 

[Stank]

Yes, the new listings are the way to go. A lot of the older listings are incredibly ambivalent about selling. And, when they reduce, they do on their terms. I find it fascinating many old small contract listings even when they reduce their prices continue to say firm sale price. It tells me they really aren’t that motivated - especially since the cost difference on a small contract is minimal. Even a $20 per point differential on a 50 point contract is only $1000.

That’s okay; they can hold firm as the market dives into the ground. Just as panic buying overtook DVC in 2021-22, panic selling is already taking over second half 2022-present.

Unlike most, I don’t see the same type of Disney inflation into the future. The past 2 years have been an aberration driven by FOMO and monkey-see, monkey-do. People dogpiling into travel like it was their last vacation they’d ever get a chance to take was fueled by COVID panic lockdown recency biases. That’s already dramatically easing as evident by Disney “price cuts” where they’ve undone some price hikes enacted in the past year. The pseudo-meal plan gift card incentives. And Iger offering “free” parking at resorts after he imposed them several years ago.

You’re not going to see standard deluxe accommodations going much above that $1000/night mark in the future, which is an insane price level to begin with. People look at prices 20 years ago and say, gosh, Contemporary is 3-6x what I paid then. But the overall vacation can be had for $8-10k for a week “top end.” Spending $10k on a vacation is extravagant, but doable in the 1990s and today. Prices aren’t going to see that same climb 20 years from now. Vacations are still a cash/credit card expense. When you venture above $10k, you’re really breaking into car loan territory.

So jumping from $2k to $10k over 20 years isn’t really “pricing people out.” It is, but most families, if they really wanted to, could swing that. In 20 years, you’re not going to see that $10k turn to $20k. We’re REALLY at the top-end for the masses. Trees don’t grow to the sky.

As a result, DVC prices really hit their all-time highs already. Buying DVC today and holding it 20 years isn’t going to net the same results as 20 years ago. Dues are starting to really carry an annual burden to holding DVC combined with the high entry point. 20 years ago, dues were negligible and the buy-in was rather inexpensive.

$30k for 200 points and $1600 in dues…you’re looking at basically an extra mortgage payment a year plus a third car in the drive way for a week’s hotel room. Disney is fun, but it’s not price inelastic. There’s a zone of doability. Anything below $10k is doable, even 20 years ago. Above that, it’s seriously home remodel/car purchase territory, and the demand decay is sharp for even a Disney vacation, and that’ll be the case 20 years from now.

 

[DVCsloth]

Direct incentives are not very good right now, probably best to wait a while if considering buying direct. It looks like there will be some deals buying resale coming up if you are ok with any potential restrictions with it.

 

[Nabas]

I think this will be the critical point where sellers will feel the pressure to bring down their price and sell. As long as DVC has been around, the ability for owners to rent out their points has always been a reliable safety net. It's also been a good marketing tool to get people to buy. But if the rental market slows as well, it may send a little more urgency on the part of the sellers. When I look at the open requests on dvc rental store, Beach Club and Grand Cal are the only resorts in rental demand. Anything else that pops up will be snapped by an owner in an instant.

Lately, my “rental market” consists of family and friends who want to rent points from me.

That market is not going to dry up anytime soon.

 

[naman1221]

That’s okay; they can hold firm as the market dives into the ground. Just as panic buying overtook DVC in 2021-22, panic selling is already taking over second half 2022-present.

Unlike most, I don’t see the same type of Disney inflation into the future. The past 2 years have been an aberration driven by FOMO and monkey-see, monkey-do. People dogpiling into travel like it was their last vacation they’d ever get a chance to take was fueled by COVID panic lockdown recency biases. That’s already dramatically easing as evident by Disney “price cuts” where they’ve undone some price hikes enacted in the past year. The pseudo-meal plan gift card incentives. And Iger offering “free” parking at resorts after he imposed them several years ago.

You’re not going to see standard deluxe accommodations going much above that $1000/night mark in the future, which is an insane price level to begin with. People look at prices 20 years ago and say, gosh, Contemporary is 3-6x what I paid then. But the overall vacation can be had for $8-10k for a week “top end.” Spending $10k on a vacation is extravagant, but doable in the 1990s and today. Prices aren’t going to see that same climb 20 years from now. Vacations are still a cash/credit card expense. When you venture above $10k, you’re really breaking into car loan territory.

So jumping from $2k to $10k over 20 years isn’t really “pricing people out.” It is, but most families, if they really wanted to, could swing that. In 20 years, you’re not going to see that $10k turn to $20k. We’re REALLY at the top-end for the masses. Trees don’t grow to the sky.

As a result, DVC prices really hit their all-time highs already. Buying DVC today and holding it 20 years isn’t going to net the same results as 20 years ago. Dues are starting to really carry an annual burden to holding DVC combined with the high entry point. 20 years ago, dues were negligible and the buy-in was rather inexpensive.

$30k for 200 points and $1600 in dues…you’re looking at basically an extra mortgage payment a year plus a third car in the drive way for a week’s hotel room. Disney is fun, but it’s not price inelastic. There’s a zone of doability. Anything below $10k is doable, even 20 years ago. Above that, it’s seriously home remodel/car purchase territory, and the demand decay is sharp for even a Disney vacation, and that’ll be the case 20 years from now.

I think this is a deceiving statement - 20 years ago, everything was cheaper - and people's wages were lower. You can't say dues were negligible and the buy in was inexpensive when its all relative to the time. Housing was half of what it is now in a lot of areas - someplaces even less than half. Food was way cheaper.

While I do agree that there is a long way down to go, there is nothing we can say to predict what may happen 10 years from now. Disney may expand to another park - they may cease to exist from a series of bad decisions (an obvious exaggeration but never impossible)

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Lately, my “rental market” consists of family and friends who want to rent points from me.

That market is not going to dry up anytime soon.

good to hear and I certainly hope not!

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I am considering picking up a Riv contract, either direct or resale, since we often use our various monorail-resort points for Riv at 7 months and the price looks right on both ends (direct is expensive but there's still some incentive in place and the opportunity to own unrestricted Riv points will never return after they've sold out).

What scares me is the prospect of being stuck with those points until 2070. How in demand will Riv be in 15-20 years after (presumably) so many more resorts have opened up, including possibly new forms of BCV and BW? The dues will climb and climb and my resale buyer would have to swallow being able to use the points at no other resort.

Sort of a different topic I've introduced, I know, but I guess my point is that it all looks bad to me now from a buyer's perspective. I could buy resale of any orig 14 resort and be locked out of all future resorts + Riv, or I could buy resale Riv and be able to use the points only at Riv, or I could buy direct Riv and pay a ton with a much bleaker potential outlook later as a seller. I suppose the only thing I feel is a smart buy right now is direct VGF, and indeed I've bought some.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I am considering picking up a Riv contract, either direct or resale, since we often use our various monorail-resort points for Riv at 7 months and the price looks right on both ends (direct is expensive but there's still some incentive in place and the opportunity to own unrestricted Riv points will never return after they've sold out).

What scares me is the prospect of being stuck with those points until 2070. How in demand will Riv be in 15-20 years after (presumably) so many more resorts have opened up, including possibly new forms of BCV and BW? The dues will climb and climb and my resale buyer would have to swallow being able to use the points at no other resort.

Sort of a different topic I've introduced, I know, but I guess my point is that it all looks bad to me now from a buyer's perspective. I could buy resale of any orig 14 resort and be locked out of all future resorts + Riv, or I could buy resale Riv and be able to use the points only at Riv, or I could buy direct Riv and pay a ton with a much bleaker potential outlook later as a seller. I suppose the only thing I feel is a smart buy right now is direct VGF, and indeed I've bought some.

This was the primary reason why I ended up buying CCV a couple of years ago instead of Riviera. CCV was more expensive, but was the last of the O14 resort without any restrictions. I went back and forth for a few months afterwards, because of Riviera’s newness, location, and skyliner access. But in the end, CCV has the greater long term value and I don’t regret it. The same could be said for current buyers contemplating VGF.

 

[DVCsloth]

This was the primary reason why I ended up buying CCV a couple of years ago instead of Riviera. CCV was more expensive, but was the last of the O14 resort without any restrictions. I went back and forth for a few months afterwards, because of Riviera’s newness, location, and skyliner access. But in the end, CCV has the greater long term value and I don’t regret it. The same could be said for current buyers contemplating VGF.

Same here, we bought CCV but ended up buying Riviera as well during the last decent promotion.

 

[tom1944]

good to hear and I certainly hope not!

I figure we will have family use our points on occasion

 

[Sandisw]

I am considering picking up a Riv contract, either direct or resale, since we often use our various monorail-resort points for Riv at 7 months and the price looks right on both ends (direct is expensive but there's still some incentive in place and the opportunity to own unrestricted Riv points will never return after they've sold out).

What scares me is the prospect of being stuck with those points until 2070. How in demand will Riv be in 15-20 years after (presumably) so many more resorts have opened up, including possibly new forms of BCV and BW? The dues will climb and climb and my resale buyer would have to swallow being able to use the points at no other resort.

Sort of a different topic I've introduced, I know, but I guess my point is that it all looks bad to me now from a buyer's perspective. I could buy resale of any orig 14 resort and be locked out of all future resorts + Riv, or I could buy resale Riv and be able to use the points only at Riv, or I could buy direct Riv and pay a ton with a much bleaker potential outlook later as a seller. I suppose the only thing I feel is a smart buy right now is direct VGF, and indeed I've bought some.

We own both and don't regret them. I do think that when more of the resorts are restricted for resale purchasers...meaning, they can only be used at their home resort...things will level out and the resale value, IMO, will be similar for all of them. In 2043, today's resale buyers will be down to only 9 resorts, none in the Epcot area, which may have a bigger impact than any of us realize....of course, this does assume that DVD continues with the restrctions.

For us, we bought to use and if we sell, we are not concerned about what we can sell them for. We know they will sell for more than $0...so I don't think we will get stuck with them at all...

But, I realize it is important for others so only you can decide how important it is to own there so you can take advantage of the home resort booking periods.

Now, if they decide to abandon the restrictions, I really believe they will remove them from RIV as well and if that happens, the product changes as I don't see them having only one resort with them.

 

[Drew729]

I have not been keeping up on prices as we are not looking to buy or sell at this time but wow there are a lot of listings. IMO as a buyer I like to see those 150-200 SSR contracts with double/triple points for $100/110 per point and would feel pretty good about buying that even with the prices dropping.

At a glance I would say BLT has room to go down quite a bit from current prices by just looking at the listings and I think the $130-140 range gets them moving.

Not a doom and gloom situation but taking into account the lack of ROFR and if the rental market for points really slows down it's pretty likely there will be bigger drops in the short term. That being said I still think there are some nice contracts that present a good value as a buyer while still at a price that a seller would find acceptable as well.

 

[luvdisneyland]

I see two BLTs for $144 listed. Sellers won’t sell at any cost, but there are more sellers than ever. Since I checked from yesterday to today, the supply of DVC contracts for sale increased by over 30, from 2,703 to 2,734.

There’s a lot of muscle memory and pride in markets and psychology. People want what the market was at 12 months ago, even 4 months ago. That ain’t where we are now, and where we are going the prices will further deteriorate.

So sellers can be proud. Looking in the rearview mirror to see what’s in front isn’t how markets work. There’s plenty of residual price bias where they saw $200 BLT in April 2021 and at $150 sellers feel like they’ve “already come down enough.” But the listings are $144 and no bid. Sitting for weeks. Which means the market is $130s. Hop on the train, because $130s will be a bargain for sellers. We’re onwards to $120s and below, and Disney won’t be ROFRing with a deep recession.

It’s interesting the reverse doesn’t work in appreciating markets. When VGC went to $300pp, any offer not at full ask was laughed at. “We aren’t at $250 anymore.” Now you have Grand Cal at $230 and dropping like a rock. We’ll be below $200 soon.

Sellers will cling to past pricing and miss the opportunity to get out. DVC had a nice run up the past 10+ years. Interest rates are up and layoffs are starting to happen. Like I said, a year ago I would’ve been laughed at suggesting Grand Cal would be $230pp. Yet here we are. BLT is falling through to prices we haven’t seen in years. Why would I stabilize now? I see 2,734 DVC contracts for sale. Over 300 BLTs. Obviously there aren’t buyers.

I don't recall BLT's averages sales price ever being $200 pp. I just read the sponsors blog on the average sales prices and according to them it is down 12.3% YOY, so I would say this is more of a correction than a crash ( same with real estate- I've been looking for a property and unfortunately, the prices are not dropping to pre-covid prices). There was one or two instances that the ave. price was up (CC and BCV I believe). Of course, it still may decline, but seems a bit dramatic to think we will see BLT at $100 pp- and Disney would step in at some point. I also think it helps to look at all of the resales prices and not guage the market on what Fidelity is doing, they are a small player known for underpricing their listings. Collectively, all the other players make up more than 95% of the resale market and IMHO, are a better guage of what the actual sales prices are.

 

[Bearval]

I don't recall BLT's averages sales price ever being $200 pp. I just read the sponsors blog on the average sales prices and according to them it is down 12.3% YOY, so I would say this is more of a correction than a crash ( same with real estate- I've been looking for a property and unfortunately, the prices are not dropping to pre-covid prices). There was one or two instances that the ave. price was up (CC and BCV I believe). Of course, it still may decline, but seems a bit dramatic to think we will see BLT at $100 pp- and Disney would step in at some point. I also think it helps to look at all of the resales prices and not guage the market on what Fidelity is doing, they are a small player known for underpricing their listings. Collectively, all the other players make up more than 95% of the resale market and IMHO, are a better guage of what the actual sales prices are.

I just saw a BLT contract @ $145pp for 125 points for my correct UY. Unfortunately I cant make an offer until after June since I would need to put up one of my AKV contracts shortly afterwards ( have a room booked for June using points from the contract) if my offer was accepted to be able to "afford" it.