Is anything selling?

[tom1944]

I just saw a BLT contract @ $145pp for 125 points for my correct UY. Unfortunately I cant make an offer until after June since I would need to put up one of my AKV contracts shortly afterwards ( have a room booked for June using points from the contract) if my offer was accepted to be able to "afford" it.

I put multiple bids in at $137 for BLT and was only countered once. Ignored 4 times and once called to tell the offer was too low to even counter. When I told the broker I based the offer on 5 other reported sales and 2 confirmed but taken back under ROFR I was told "but those were not loaded contracts". Except those reported here were.

The accepted contracts I saw ranged from $126 which was taken back to $135. Based on that I thought $137 was reasonable. The counter I received was at $154.

Because of that I moved on to Saratoga. I went in with the understanding of buying an initial contract with a second contract to follow in the next 2 years. I can visit a BLT offer again down the road.

 

[Redheadprincess]

I don't recall BLT's averages sales price ever being $200 pp. I just read the sponsors blog on the average sales prices and according to them it is down 12.3% YOY, so I would say this is more of a correction than a crash ( same with real estate- I've been looking for a property and unfortunately, the prices are not dropping to pre-covid prices). There was one or two instances that the ave. price was up (CC and BCV I believe). Of course, it still may decline, but seems a bit dramatic to think we will see BLT at $100 pp- and Disney would step in at some point. I also think it helps to look at all of the resales prices and not guage the market on what Fidelity is doing, they are a small player known for underpricing their listings. Collectively, all the other players make up more than 95% of the resale market and IMHO, are a better guage of what the actual sales prices are.

So Fidelity is important for several reasons. They actually have the 2nd largest number is contracts listed on the market, with a market share of almost 17%, and Fidelity is who Disney sends people too when they inquire about selling their contracts.

 

[Bearval]

I put multiple bids in at $137 for BLT and was only countered once. Ignored 4 times and once called to tell the offer was too low to even counter. When I told the broker I based the offer on 5 other reported sales and 2 confirmed but taken back under ROFR I was told "but those were not loaded contracts". Except those reported here were.

The accepted contracts I saw ranged from $126 which was taken back to $135. Based on that I thought $137 was reasonable. The counter I received was at $154.

Because of that I moved on to Saratoga. I went in with the understanding of buying an initial contract with a second contract to follow in the next 2 years. I can visit a BLT offer again down the road.

My starting offer was going to be just above " instant sale value" which was at $130pp. If countered, I was going to go to $135pp but nothing higher, this contract is a "want" not a "need" for me.

 

[sndral]

I don’t recall BLT’s averages sales price ever being $200 pp…
…
I also think it helps to look at all of the resales prices and not guage the market on what Fidelity is doing, they are a small player known for underpricing their listings. Collectively, all the other players make up more than 95% of the resale market and IMHO, are a better guage of what the actual sales prices are.

Not sure how you define ‘small’, but of the dozen or so DVC brokers Fidelity (https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/brand/disney-vacation-club/) is currently the second largest. According to the search engine I use, there are 2689 DVC resale listings, Fidelity has 452 of them - 16%. The largest broker, the site sponsor, (https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/about-us/) has 791 listings - 29%.
I’ve never read that Fidelity was known for underpricing their listings, so I compared their current BLT asking prices to the largest broker, Fidelity is asking $145 - $182 for BLT, DVC Resale Market is asking $142 - $210 for BLT.
I assume brokers/agents suggest list prices to sellers, but that ultimately the seller decides whether to follow the broker’s advice & how high or low they want to list at, but I’ve not sold any of my contracts so .

 

[greeneyedchick]

Trying to delete my post but can't find that option...

 

[TinkAgainU]

I used to be a realtor and the unofficial start of the spring selling season was the weekend after the superbowl. I would remove the listing for a few weeks and re-list the Friday after the Super Bowl. I would also check your price. People tend to start high which prevents people from seeing and falling in love with your house. Make sure it's competitively priced because that usually a big factor on whether it sells a lot. Of course, even knowing that, I listed my own home based on the $200,000 in remodeling that we did. We also had to list in September which was the beginning of the slow season. We ended up selling that house for less than we originally paid (not including the $200,000 for new kitchen and windows). I didn't listen to my own advice and I regret it. I know it's hard but take along objective look at your competitors and their prices when setting yours. Good luck!

I think you posted this in the wrong blog - we're talking about selling DVC (Disney Timeshare) points contracts lol. But interesting about the after - Super Bowl theory, and checking out competitors prices still applies

 

[Stank]

I think this is a deceiving statement - 20 years ago, everything was cheaper - and people's wages were lower. You can't say dues were negligible and the buy in was inexpensive when its all relative to the time. Housing was half of what it is now in a lot of areas - someplaces even less than half. Food was way cheaper.

While I do agree that there is a long way down to go, there is nothing we can say to predict what may happen 10 years from now. Disney may expand to another park - they may cease to exist from a series of bad decisions (an obvious exaggeration but never impossible)

Nah, dues were negligible 20 years ago even considering inflation. Buy-in was doable. Much easier to save $20k in 2003 dollars and maintain dues than it is to save $40k in 2023 dollars and maintain dues. The disposable portion of people’s salaries today to set aside and save for DVC is far smaller vs. 2003.

 

[tom1944]

I wanted to buy both 20 and 30 years ago but did not because it would have been financially stressful for my family. Could I have done it yes but it would not have been comfortable. There were also several significant financial obligations we had coming, college, weddings etc that were a priority.

Buying now just makes more sense.

The cost of purchase and dues are more negligible now than back to 1996 for us.

 

[Stank]

I wanted to buy both 20 and 30 years ago but did not because it would have been financially stressful for my family. Could I have done it yes but it would not have been comfortable. There were also several significant financial obligations we had coming, college, weddings etc that were a priority.

Buying now just makes more sense.

The cost of purchase and dues are more negligible now than back to 1996 for us.

Yeah, that’s the case with most things for most people. When you’re 25, you’re saving up for a house/car/wedding and your income is the lowest it’ll be. When you’re 45, your house should be paid off or close to, you’re not getting married, your kids are out of the house or close to, so many expenses are rolling off plus you have 20 years of promotions/raises. You have savings, etc.

The real way to look at it is there were 25, 35, 45, and 55 year olds in 1996 as there are today. My point is DVC was less of a burden financially in 1996 than today. The buy in and dues consisted of a lower chunk of disposable income than today. What’s relevant is for the average DVC buyer in 1996, it was easier then than it is in 2023.

It‘s the same as housing. Cars. There’s a reason why term loans are getting longer and longer—because although incomes are rising, people cannot afford these things. 20 years ago you had a 36 month car loan; today it’s 72 months. That’s why I don’t buy any of this “it’s all relative/what incomes were 20 years ago were lower so DVC was just as expensive.” No, people are a lot more spread thin today than ever before precisely because of these things. That’s why DVC is more expensive for the average person than it has ever been, and that’s the calculation that matters. That’s why prices are falling for contracts and need to continue to in order to adjust to people’s incomes and the expenses they’re facing before even considering DVC

 

[sleepymouse]

I put multiple bids in at $137 for BLT and was only countered once. Ignored 4 times and once called to tell the offer was too low to even counter. When I told the broker I based the offer on 5 other reported sales and 2 confirmed but taken back under ROFR I was told "but those were not loaded contracts". Except those reported here were.

The accepted contracts I saw ranged from $126 which was taken back to $135. Based on that I thought $137 was reasonable. The counter I received was at $154.

Because of that I moved on to Saratoga. I went in with the understanding of buying an initial contract with a second contract to follow in the next 2 years. I can visit a BLT offer again down the road.

I've had a few similar conversations with brokers. When I pointed out that the contracts had double points, they either insinuated or flat-out said that those were fake prices.

 

[greeneyedchick]

I think you posted this in the wrong blog - we're talking about selling DVC (Disney Timeshare) points contracts lol. But interesting about the after - Super Bowl theory, and checking out competitors prices still applies

Sorry. You're right. Wrong thread.

 

[Noah_t]

Nah, dues were negligible 20 years ago even considering inflation. Buy-in was doable. Much easier to save $20k in 2003 dollars and maintain dues than it is to save $40k in 2023 dollars and maintain dues. The disposable portion of people’s salaries today to set aside and save for DVC is far smaller vs. 2003.

Well in my world that statement is definitely not true.

 

[Stank]

Well in my world that statement is definitely not true.

That’s because you’re looking at your work career minus 20 years and where you are today. The actual comparison should be what the median DVC buyer was in 2003 vs. the median DVC buyer in 2023. You don’t take a 25 year old from 2003, pile on 20 years of work experience and promotions/raises, and then ask that same 25 year old who is now 45 if they are in better financial shape to buy DVC today vs. when they were 25.

You look at the median buyer’s disposable income % available to income and note the median household today is contending with higher prices and longer loans for everything, reflecting their inability to afford these things.

If what you guys said was true, that wages are keeping pace with purchases, then we wouldn’t be seeing 84 month car loans which was never a thing 20 years ago. The length of those loans would stay constant. The fact is people can’t afford their existing budgets, so they stretch payments over a longer term. DVC as a result has to give on the contract price because the dues keep going up and the contracts aren’t affordable. For you? They may be. But credit card balances went up almost 20% YOY, so perspective on the state of the consumer. YOU may be okay and better than ever, but you’re not the marginal buyer, and that’s where prices are set: at the margin.

 

[famy27]

Go to Fidelity, find your resort. Sort by “price per point.” Is your contract price matching or below the low-end price per points listed there? If not, then that’s why it’s not selling, your price is probably just too high. If your listing above $100 pp on SSR right now or above $90ish for OKW, then it’s too high, IMO

Go to Fidelity, find your resort. Sort by “price per point.” Is your contract price matching or below the low-end price per points listed there? If not, then that’s why it’s not selling, your price is probably just too high. If your listing above $100 pp on SSR right now or above $90ish for OKW, then it’s too high, IMO.

I’m at the very low end. I think we’re just going to hold it for now and see what happens. I was hoping to free up some cash but I don’t want to give it away

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I have put in two offers at particular resale site and had l One of the agents emailed me an said the offer was too low and they wouldn't even presented to the owner. They invited me to contact them so I could put in a reasonable offer. I emailed them back and told them my offer was $5 above there "instant offer" so I felt my offer was already "reasonable". I have yet to receive a reply.

Go to fidelity. I wouldn’t bother with the people you are dealing with— they told me the same thing a few years ago. They wouldn’t even present the offer. I think that is malpractice.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

That’s because you’re looking at your work career minus 20 years and where you are today. The actual comparison should be what the median DVC buyer was in 2003 vs. the median DVC buyer in 2023. You don’t take a 25 year old from 2003, pile on 20 years of work experience and promotions/raises, and then ask that same 25 year old who is now 45 if they are in better financial shape to buy DVC today vs. when they were 25.

You look at the median buyer’s disposable income % available to income and note the median household today is contending with higher prices and longer loans for everything, reflecting their inability to afford these things.

If what you guys said was true, that wages are keeping pace with purchases, then we wouldn’t be seeing 84 month car loans which was never a thing 20 years ago. The length of those loans would stay constant. The fact is people can’t afford their existing budgets, so they stretch payments over a longer term. DVC as a result has to give on the contract price because the dues keep going up and the contracts aren’t affordable. For you? They may be. But credit card balances went up almost 20% YOY, so perspective on the state of the consumer. YOU may be okay and better than ever, but you’re not the marginal buyer, and that’s where prices are set: at the margin.

Part of why we have such high car loans is because car prices are insane. Don’t ever take out a car loan btw. But I agree that wages are not keeping up with inflation for most people.

 

[Junior-Beto]

I just low-balled an SSR contract - 215 points, 90ppt - seller accepted! Now hoping ROFR is looking the other way.

 

[tom1944]

I just low-balled an SSR contract - 215 points, 90ppt - seller accepted! Now hoping ROFR is looking the other way.

Last week I purchased for $104 and I saw 4 or 5 other contracts that sold around the same price.

A week later and we are down to $90.

Is that only SSR and OKW or is that trend happening with the other resorts also?

 

[CVG]

Anyone who wants to sell now must price accordingly. See BLT for $125 pp.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I just low-balled an SSR contract - 215 points, 90ppt - seller accepted! Now hoping ROFR is looking the other way.

Double loaded, full year points, partially stripped, double stripped?