That’s okay; they can hold firm as the market dives into the ground. Just as panic buying overtook DVC in 2021-22, panic selling is already taking over second half 2022-present.
Unlike most, I don’t see the same type of Disney inflation into the future. The past 2 years have been an aberration driven by FOMO and monkey-see, monkey-do. People dogpiling into travel like it was their last vacation they’d ever get a chance to take was fueled by COVID panic lockdown recency biases. That’s already dramatically easing as evident by Disney “price cuts” where they’ve undone some price hikes enacted in the past year. The pseudo-meal plan gift card incentives. And Iger offering “free” parking at resorts after he imposed them several years ago.
You’re not going to see standard deluxe accommodations going much above that $1000/night mark in the future, which is an insane price level to begin with. People look at prices 20 years ago and say, gosh, Contemporary is 3-6x what I paid then. But the overall vacation can be had for $8-10k for a week “top end.” Spending $10k on a vacation is extravagant, but doable in the 1990s and today. Prices aren’t going to see that same climb 20 years from now. Vacations are still a cash/credit card expense. When you venture above $10k, you’re really breaking into car loan territory.
So jumping from $2k to $10k over 20 years isn’t really “pricing people out.” It is, but most families, if they really wanted to, could swing that. In 20 years, you’re not going to see that $10k turn to $20k. We’re REALLY at the top-end for the masses. Trees don’t grow to the sky.
As a result, DVC prices really hit their all-time highs already. Buying DVC today and holding it 20 years isn’t going to net the same results as 20 years ago. Dues are starting to really carry an annual burden to holding DVC combined with the high entry point. 20 years ago, dues were negligible and the buy-in was rather inexpensive.
$30k for 200 points and $1600 in dues…you’re looking at basically an extra mortgage payment a year plus a third car in the drive way for a week’s hotel room. Disney is fun, but it’s not price inelastic. There’s a zone of doability. Anything below $10k is doable, even 20 years ago. Above that, it’s seriously home remodel/car purchase territory, and the demand decay is sharp for even a Disney vacation, and that’ll be the case 20 years from now.