Inventory This High?

[RoseGold]

That and there’s a ticking time bomb of 2042s that are going to continue to devalue rapidly in the coming years. If DVC wanted to breathe new life into the program they would start buying back 2042s and selling them with 2057 expirations. That additional 15 years of use would bolster the OKW/BCV/BWV market significantly.

Why would DVC want expensive 2042 points? What they could do is separate the 2042s from the point exchange and lock down the 2042 points to home resorts. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen close to the end. Disney gets to keep all the breakage and the wasted points.

 

[SL6827]

Any list out there with the direct prices for the resorts and thier average price going on the resale market?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

But the parks are more crowded than ever and revenues are highest than ever. If people are frustrated, they're certainly not expressing it with their feet and wallet. How do we reconcile this?

They’re not though. Adjusted for time of year / holidays/etc., attendance seems to have peaked sometime last year. There’s a reason there are currently huge hotel discounts to be had for cash bookings.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

They’re not though. Adjusted for time of year / holidays/etc., attendance seems to have peaked sometime last year. There’s a reason there are currently huge hotel discounts to be had for cash bookings.

hotel discounts are seasonal and offered during every "low" season. All I read are how crowded Disney is and how people are threatening to "never again." And of course there's always the "revenge traveling." I'm not making excuses for Disney. There are many actions they've taken that I'm not happy with. But the parks ARE crowded. So much so that people are constantly threatening to leave and never come back. Until I see a marked difference in the parks, it's all just rhetoric.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

hotel discounts are seasonal and offered during every "low" season. All I read are how crowded Disney is and how people are threatening to "never again." And of course there's always the "revenge traveling." I'm not making excuses for Disney. There are many actions they've taken that I'm not happy with. But the parks ARE crowded. So much so that people are constantly threatening to leave and never come back. Until I see a marked difference in the parks, it's all just rhetoric.

A quick look at the touringplans historical crowd calendar shows they are not at record highs. Crowds are down YOY. Just because people subjectively believe they are observing record-breaking crowds does not make it so.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

A quick look at the touringplans historical crowd calendar shows they are not at record highs. Crowds are down YOY. Just because people subjectively believe they are observing record-breaking crowds does not make it so.

ok. I'll accept that crowds are not at historic highs. but they are still way too crowded no? Isn't that the primary reason why people believe the product is no longer worth it? In addition to Genie+ and price gouging? My point is that people keep complaining, and yet the parks are making record profits. The masses are still going to Disney. They're going to continue going to Disney.

 

[Sandisw]

They’re not though. Adjusted for time of year / holidays/etc., attendance seems to have peaked sometime last year. There’s a reason there are currently huge hotel discounts to be had for cash bookings.

Seemed pretty crowded today at MK and Epcot.

 

[sethschroeder]

That and there’s a ticking time bomb of 2042s that are going to continue to devalue rapidly in the coming years. If DVC wanted to breathe new life into the program they would start buying back 2042s and selling them with 2057 expirations. That additional 15 years of use would bolster the OKW/BCV/BWV market significantly.

That doesn't devalue other contracts just those specific ones.

They don't need to do anything really but they will start buying those back if they go to low and possibly use it to bolster cash room quantities if needed.

 

[sethschroeder]

I understand all the frustrations by long time owners and Disney fans. But the parks are more crowded than ever and revenues are highest than ever. If people are frustrated, they're certainly not expressing it with their feet and wallet. How do we reconcile this?

It's easy:
Pandemic removed all travel and then all foreign travel options
Void in any entertainment activities drove up savings
Disney with 50th and 100th has keep messaging and an "easy" trip
Once and a lifetime trips piled up with roughly 24 months of people not taking that trip to spread out crowds

What you will find is long term fewer % of those once and a lifetime visitors will be converted to returning visitor likely based on devaluation of experience.

Every place is seeing a large increase in travel visitors. That will come to an end coming soon. Been saying the same regarding lots of travel options like cruises that are cutting back service and increasing prices. I will keep my money now and take their deals later.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I will keep my money now and take their deals later.

I agree with everything you just said. Especially this last part. I believe most people are not TRULY ever done with Disney.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I understand all the frustrations by long time owners and Disney fans. But the parks are more crowded than ever and revenues are highest than ever. If people are frustrated, they're certainly not expressing it with their feet and wallet. How do we reconcile this?

Let's just call it "Disney Magic".
This is really no different from the way AP's were handled pre-C in DL/DCA. The So Cal locals seem to think it is their God-given right to be in the parks whenever they want to and continued to renew their APs no matter how much Disney increased to price to try and get them to stop doing that. Sure Disney was maximizing profit in the process, but they did have an ulterior, not so subtle motive; There were too many local APs and it was diminishing the experience for the once-in-a-long-time visitors. We took the hint and stopped renewing the passes but a lot of people just didn't - and the price really didn't matter.

Alright, well, this is a lot like that.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Let's just call it "Disney Magic".
This is really no different from the way AP's were handled pre-C in DL/DCA. The So Cal locals seem to think it is their God-given right to be in the parks whenever they want to and continued to renew their APs no matter how much Disney increased to price to try and get them to stop doing that. Sure Disney was maximizing profit in the process, but they did have an ulterior, not so subtle motive; There were too many local APs and it was diminishing the experience for the once-in-a-long-time visitors. We took the hint and stopped renewing the passes but a lot of people just didn't - and the price really didn't matter.

Alright, well, this is a lot like that.

So I think what you're saying here, is that even though people are sick and tired of Disney's antics and leave, there are plenty of others who continue to go no matter what, and offsets the difference so the parks stay crowded? I can buy that.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Seemed pretty crowded today at MK and Epcot.

It’s hard to do 1:1 comparisons between days of the year because breaks/holidays don’t line up exactly the same, but per touringplans, yesterday was an overall crowd level of 7. MK was an 8, and Epcot was a 5. On 3/21/22 (also a Tuesday), the parks were an overall overall crowd level of 8, with MK at 8 and Epcot at 8. Granted this difference isn’t huge, but if you look at the monthly comparisons, the crowd levels are clearly down compared to 2022.

 

[cvjw]

We visited Disney for a long weekend in 2022 and 2023. Same weekend. First weekend of Orlando spring break for both trips. The crowds were MUCH worse last year. They were still bad this year, but it was noticeably less crowded this year.

 

[sethschroeder]

It’s hard to do 1:1 comparisons between days of the year because breaks/holidays don’t line up exactly the same, but per touringplans, yesterday was an overall crowd level of 7. MK was an 8, and Epcot was a 5. On 3/21/22 (also a Tuesday), the parks were an overall overall crowd level of 8, with MK at 8 and Epcot at 8. Granted this difference isn’t huge, but if you look at the monthly comparisons, the crowd levels are clearly down compared to 2022.

To be fair Disney has driven more and more people to rope drop and genie+ as well as evenings with night events either included for deluxe or paid for anyone. Touringplans from what I understand calculates based on waits between 11am and 5pm which can be off in reality of how crowded the parks are or the total guests walking through the gates.

TP is great for a general idea but I don't think you really can compare now vs 2022 with the general number. Plus your only data point with TP is waits which isn't accounting for how many people are in the parks just the waits for rides.

To add I would suspect crowds would be lower this year as there is less revenge travel and the 50th has just passed. I just don't think the data can be used to really say much except middle of the day is the slightest less busy on rides themselves.

 

[Sandisw]

It’s hard to do 1:1 comparisons between days of the year because breaks/holidays don’t line up exactly the same, but per touringplans, yesterday was an overall crowd level of 7. MK was an 8, and Epcot was a 5. On 3/21/22 (also a Tuesday), the parks were an overall overall crowd level of 8, with MK at 8 and Epcot at 8. Granted this difference isn’t huge, but if you look at the monthly comparisons, the crowd levels are clearly down compared to 2022.

But I don’t think Touring Plans has access to real data do they? Aren’t they still pretty much a guess using wait times?

I have been here 8 times in the last year and can tell you the parks are busy. So, if attendance is down it’s not significant in any way that it shows..walking around with lots of people.

That was my point. People are visiting and spending money. Resort discounts are for getting people to choose onsite vs offsite resorts and the summer ones were always like this,,,we were summer visitors because I was a teacher and we always got these deals..and better..

 

[Jlo85]

Disney crowds are down, but it was an intentional 'premiumization' to appeal to wealthier customers.

And I'm not convinced that having multiple resorts for sale at the same time is necessarily a negative for Disney. Might suck when the economy sucks, like it does today. But once it rebounds, having a bunch of choices across the country might be a net positive.

 

[ocdb8r1]

It’s hard to do 1:1 comparisons between days of the year because breaks/holidays don’t line up exactly the same, but per touringplans, yesterday was an overall crowd level of 7. MK was an 8, and Epcot was a 5. On 3/21/22 (also a Tuesday), the parks were an overall overall crowd level of 8, with MK at 8 and Epcot at 8. Granted this difference isn’t huge, but if you look at the monthly comparisons, the crowd levels are clearly down compared to 2022.

I think we have to be careful about relying on these third party sites to extrapolate true crowd levels. There's a bit of a 6 degrees of separation risk....Touringplans bases much of their reporting on reported attraction wait times in My Disney Experience (which we all know is subject to wild manipulation by Disney and an imperfect science in itself). I don't disagree that it's useful to take a look at, but preaching it here like it's the gospel is a bit much.

To me, the exact crowd levels are moot in the overall debate. If Disney is able to continue to increase park revenue year-over-year, in line with or beating inflation, there's clearly no demand problem. They have made clear they are consciously trying to improve the guest experience by sacrificing volume in favor of premium pricing. I don't think an attempt at real-time evaluation of the crowd levels will illustrate if that strategy is working or not. We'll only know in retrospect when financials are reported. What I appreciate is they acknowledge there is/has been a customer satisfaction problem tied to park capacity...and while their strategy thus far has been increase pricing and offer more "a la carte" costs, they have also indicated a need to focus on increasing capacity by building new experiences. The latter could all be lip service, but I'm hopeful it isn't. I agree with many arguments in this thread - their actions are alienating plenty of Disney fans and there will eventually be a tipping point. I'm just not convinced we've reached it yet AND am hopeful they are working on other strategies to both create revenue and a better customer experience.

 

[Brian Noble]

We go during the Orlando spring break week b/c that's also my daughter's week off. Average resort-wide wait time for the 2023 week was 48 minutes. Average resort-wide wait time for the 2022 week was 51 minutes. But, it's not just Disney. Universal saw a similar small decline: 52 minutes in 2023 vs. 54 minutes in 2022.

So the idea that Disney in particular is losing guests may or may not be accurate. There are a bunch of other factors: the AP Disney is willing to sell right now is blocked out that week, but Universal has some passes that are not. Disney may (or may not) have cut back on G+ sales, which in turn would lower the overall standby wait. And so on.

 

[Stank]

Another thing to consider is the dining availability. Things are looser with BOG, Chef Mickey’s, Tusker, Garden Grill, etc. We went a year ago looking at the same party size/windows at the <60 day, and you’re able to find greater availability across all restaurants. This simply wasn’t the case last year unless you were 1-3 days out and caught a cancelation.

While Disney has offered discounts during “slow seasons,” these discounts were not around last year and not at this size. That illustrates softening. Contemporary was regularly $900+ last year; you can get it for $400 standard studio. And in years past often you’d search for the discount but it was VERY selective on the dates. Often you couldn’t find the discounts at the resort you wanted because they were sold out for those dates rendering the discount irrelevant. I had no problem throwing in random dates and getting the 35% off at whatever Deluxe I wanted.

It’s all a combo of revenge travel hangover/higher costs for everyday life/not the 50th anymore in a couple weeks/general Disney disillusionment. But I will say the markup for many things these days is astronomical. Word has gotten out credit flows like the Nile and people won’t bat an eye at a $25 Mason jar sundae on vacation because someone took a photo of it on Instagram and it’s become a viral “must do”

Often I’m astonished with, “you want how much for that?!” But then I remember so long as credit card magic money exists, there is no demand elasticity to price. People will buy now, figure it out later.