Back when I did my cost calculation vs
DVC (in February of this year) - I assumed 9 nights stay at the different room price levels deluxe ($300 per night) moderate ($200 per night) and value ($120 per night). That base rate is not the highest nor the lowest for staying at those type of resorts, so I didn't worry about discounts, I just assumed an "average" price.
For the DVC side, I also assumed buying resale 160 points at $75 a point, and a 10 year HELOC at 4% interest on the buy-in. (Paying cash would of course work out better for DVC.) 160 points should get me 9-nights in the equivalent of a studio for most point seasons.
For renting DVC - I used $13 a point and assumed the same 160 points.
I also assumed 5% inflation of room rates, DVC maintenance fees, and point rental rates. (Hard to predict long-range costs, but I figured this is the "fairest" method.)
I got break-even vs deluxe rooms right away.
Break-even vs renting DVC points at 10 years
Break-even vs staying moderate at 11 years.
Break-even vs staying value at 31 years.
The interesting thing is what happens AFTER the break-even point. In year 12 I am saving almost $1,500 per year versus staying at a moderate. In year 20, I'm saving $2,500 per year versus staying at a moderate. By the end of my contract (when I'm an old man) I've saved $139,000 by buying DVC versus staying at a moderate. Versus deluxe I save $292,000.
If I instead bought points from Disney at $165 a point and did the same calculation, I get:
Break-even vs deluxe rooms at 12 years.
Break-even vs renting DVC points at 18 years
Break-even vs staying moderate at 21 years.
Break-even vs staying value at, well, never.
These calcs I'd done before, and was why for years I resisted DVC UNTIL I discovered the resale option. A 20-year break-even point was too far out for me.
But either way - the fact is, the longer term you look at DVC, the better a value it is.