If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[fatmanatee]

All of these measures were put in place to slow the progression to the point where the hospitals could keep up. If all of these things still are not working, would it be better to just let it spread so that we develop herd immunity sooner rather than later?

I say this as someone who lives in an area that seems to be getting pounded by this, it's two-fold:

1. We're only a week in, and you probably won't see the effects for another week or two. The hope is by isolating everyone, you figure out who has it, and they *haven't* passed it on in the two week period because they've been isolated. Continue isolating the sick people until they test negative. Test anyone they've come into contact with if they've failed to quarantine. Then you start re-opening stuff for healthy people. One problem:

2. People haven't taken the measures seriously enough (you may have heard this before in other countries). There's still a decent amount of activity in my neighborhood, restaurants are open for takeout and delivery, and it was really nice out on Friday so for some reason a whole lot of people decided they should go to the park (which hasn't been closed, a mistake made by my mayor). It's not at the level of what you may have seen of videos from China, or even Italy. That's a major problem. We've taken some measures but haven't quite committed, so we get all the downside for the economy without the whole upside of the measures we're supposed to be taking to slow the curve.

So as a result, I'm not sure how busy my local hospital is but I'm constantly hearing ambulance sirens so I don't think the situation is good. We're at 50 known cases in town as of Friday but that number had been doubling every day since I started tracking. Two police officers are in critical condition, others have tested positive with symptoms and are able to treat themselves in isolation for now (that can obviously change in a hurry). I expect the caseload to continue rising sharply for a bit and I hope the hospitals here can handle the volume but I'm not optimistic. I'm basically expecting a repeat of Italy.

 

[Farro]

Is there solid proof that herd immunity even applies to this virus?

I have seen articles that say just the opposite. That "herd immunity" will NOT work.

Dr. Fauci stated that if this virus behaves as other viruses (which he says he believes it will) infected people will build up an immunity and either not get again, or get very mild version. Due to this fact he believes next season's wave will be more moderate in nature.

He said this last week.

 

[tvguy]

California Governor issued stay at home order Thursday night. For a lot of us as far as work, today is the first day we are working from home. Others started Friday so it is only working day two for them. Too soon to say.

 

[Party.Of.4-NY>>>FL]

I am reading the Governor of NY is in near panic. So I am guessing that flattening is not working at least in NY. So I am assuming that will be the nation as a whole. Did I misread?

Can you share where you read this? I’m in NY and have been watching/listening to governor Cuomo daily for several weeks. His tone and demeanor are most certainly not what I would call panicking. He’s been very calm and very focused throughout. The one criticism I have of governor Cuomo was his initial decision to not close all schools in the state. He said he was going to leave that up to the individual counties and/or districts to decide. I disagree with that move. Especially because I saw irony in the fact that in his very next breath he criticized POTUS for not taking a more broad and sweeping approach to solving the problem.

The mayor of NYC however, he seems to me like he’s in over his head and beginning to panic.

I'd advise you to skip the interwebs and watch his press conferences. He's a calm, reassuring voice of reason.
And no, I'm not from NY. I just appreciate his straightforward problem solving style.

^ I totally agree. I will even go so far as to say that someday, when this health crisis is in our rear view mirror, governor Cuomo’s actions these past few weeks will be remembered, and he will be an even more prominent political figure in this country.

 

[erc]

Can you share where you read this? I’m in NY and have been watching/listening to governor Cuomo daily for several weeks. His tone and demeanor are most certainly not what I would call panicking. He’s been very calm and very focused throughout. The one criticism I have of governor Cuomo was his initial decision to not close all schools in the state. He said he was going to leave that up to the individual counties and/or districts to decide. I disagree with that move. Especially because I saw irony in the fact that in his very next breath he criticized POTUS for not taking a more broad and sweeping approach to solving the problem.

The mayor of NYC however, he seems to me like he’s in over his head and beginning to panic.

I just heard it on NPR, saying something like "If we get what we need people will live, if we don't people will die" That may sound measured but it is panic to me. That is basically saying at the numbers we are at currently it is already overwhelming.

 

[Lynne M]

I just heard it on NPR, saying something like "If we get what we need people will live, if we don't people will die" That may sound measured but it is panic to me. That is basically saying at the numbers we are at currently it is already overwhelming.

Yes, that is exactly what he’s saying. That’s not panic, that’s just speaking the truth.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

The numbers we are getting are from tests, but the United States has started testing late. So, how old are these outbreaks? Who know! The fact that new cases are reported doesn't mean whose are new infections. They could be weeks old!

 

[Praying Colonel]

Something to keep in mind: positive test results are going to rise as we get more robust testing. It won't necessarily mean the current strategy isn't working, we'll just have more visibility than we had before. The key is to avoid overwhelming hospital capacity generally and ICU/ventilator capacity specifically.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

So we should have shut everything down 2 weeks ago? What is the level where it is overwhelming the system? I have read reports that 7% of coronavirus cases require hospitalization. With the current 33,000 positive cases that would mean 2,310 hospitalizations. Is that enough to overwhelm the hospitals?

Yes. That's why mobile hospitals are being set up as I type this in hotspots around the country.

 

[erc]

Yes. That's why mobile hospitals are being set up as I type this in hotspots around the country.

There are 924,107 hospital beds. https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

 

[skyblue17]

All of these measures were put in place to slow the progression to the point where the hospitals could keep up. If all of these things still are not working, would it be better to just let it spread so that we develop herd immunity sooner rather than later?

Everyone needs to be on the same page. They're not, so this is never going to work as well as it can.

 

[DopeyDame]

Something to keep in mind: positive test results are going to rise as we get more robust testing. It won't necessarily mean the current strategy isn't working, we'll just have more visibility than we had before. The key is to avoid overwhelming hospital capacity generally and ICU/ventilator capacity specifically.

Exactly. A sharp rise in numbers at this point means nothing except that testing is actually happening (finally!!!) We should expect continued sharp rise in numbers as more testing keeps happening.
That doesn't mean social distancing isn't helping. It means we're pathetically and dangerously behind in gathering actual data.

 

[mjkacmom]

I just heard it on NPR, saying something like "If we get what we need people will live, if we don't people will die" That may sound measured but it is panic to me. That is basically saying at the numbers we are at currently it is already overwhelming.

The numbers we are at are currently overwhelming. A nurse posted on our local Facebook page asking folks to please make masks for her hospital, in NE NJ so certainly not the boonies. My SIL is a nurse, she says it’s bad.

 

[erc]

The numbers we are at are currently overwhelming. A nurse posted on our local Facebook page asking folks to please make masks for her hospital, in NE NJ so certainly not the boonies. My SIL is a nurse, she says it’s bad.

Is it the lack of protective equipment or the numbers of patients that makes it overwhelming already? We have 924,000 hospital beds and about 3,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide right now.

 

[TippyThomas]

Is it the lack of protective equipment or the numbers of patients that makes it overwhelming already? We have 924,000 hospital beds and about 3,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide right now.

Why are you asking a question when it seems you already feel you know the answer? It's like you're trying to debate without actually debating.

 

[erc]

Why are you asking a question when it seems you already feel you know the answer? It's like you're trying to debate without actually debating.

No, I honestly want to know. Just because we have 924,000 hospital beds does not mean we would not be overwhelmed by fewer patients than that. Nobody has been able to specify where that line is that we are trying to stay under with the flat curve. I am trying to understand if we are already over that line.

 

[Farro]

Is it the lack of protective equipment or the numbers of patients that makes it overwhelming already? We have 924,000 hospital beds and about 3,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide right now.

Right now they are focused on the lack of equipment - they will need more to treat everyone IF hospitals become overwhelmed. In our city that hasn't happened yet, but probably has in NYC.

 

[mjkacmom]

Is it the lack of protective equipment or the numbers of patients that makes it overwhelming already? We have 924,000 hospital beds and about 3,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide right now.

The lack of protective equipment and medical equipment like ventilators.

 

[Praying Colonel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241822783153340417

 

[skyblue17]

Is it the lack of protective equipment or the numbers of patients that makes it overwhelming already? We have 924,000 hospital beds and about 3,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide right now.

Why do you keep mentioning the number of total beds? If the number of beds exceeds the number of cases in any one place, it really doesn't matter that there are a thousand beds somewhere else.