IF I were shopping for resale RIV…

[juliebee]

Is there really the demand out there for a ton more DVC resorts than already exist today? If so, parks will need more expansion.

I believe there is an area that DVC hasn't tapped into yet and that is moderate-level accommodations. There are so many people out there in their 20's and 30's (or older) that are unable to purchase a home because of the high costs of home ownership. People in that category probably aren't going to be looking into a major DVC purchase of 30K+. However, these people still vacation. So offer a less expensive DVC version, like French Quarter, at maybe $150/pt direct and then DVC direct is now competing with the resale market prices. So I believe there is a demand for a ton more DVC... but at a different price point than currently offered by direct.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I believe there is an area that DVC hasn't tapped into yet and that is moderate-level accommodations. There are so many people out there in their 20's and 30's (or older) that are unable to purchase a home because of the high costs of home ownership. People in that category probably aren't going to be looking into a major DVC purchase of 30K+. However, these people still vacation. So offer a less expensive DVC version, like French Quarter, at maybe $150/pt direct and then DVC direct is now competing with the resale market prices. So I believe there is a demand for a ton more DVC... but at a different price point than currently offered by direct.

I agree. This is such a fine line though and may cannibalize their current offerings. They would have to be very careful and intentional to make this work for them.

 

[Mouseforward]

I believe there is an area that DVC hasn't tapped into yet and that is moderate-level accommodations... that are unable to purchase a home because of the high costs of home ownership.

I would love that for the 20-30 year olds, but if I was saving for a mortgage again, even 10k on a timeshare is at best, a questionable decision.

I think that DVC is for people who have homes, and are comfortable in their finances. If I was not at the tail end of a mortgage that is half of what I would have to spend on rent , with sub 3% interest I would not have DVC.

To make a moderate DVC you run into the FW Cabin problem, Low points per night = High MF. If you did a lower cost to purchase you then have to limit where they can trade at 7 months to be fair.

The best option for low cost DVC for younger members is 50% of a restricted resort, meaning buy 75 resale Riviera points at $115 and go every 2 years. It will last 44 years and you can add on when you are more secure.

 

[havoc315]

The Riviera resale owner still has competition from all eligible resale and direct owners. If RIV resale owner can't secure a room there is no backup plan other than to waitlist, bank the points or use II.

And that lack of backup or lack of significant backup will apply to the vast majority of resale owners in a few years.

The SSR has a lot of rooms at its own resort that people don't try and get until the last minute and possibly one of the non restricted resorts.

 

[havoc315]

Most likely yes but there are certainly other factors if you were going to hold the contract such as dues and rentability.

Dues at GFV are nearly identical to BLT. Nobody would pay $30 more per point to save 9 cents in dues. It would take over 300 years to break even.

And I doubt there is a single buyer ever who said, “I really prefer BLT over GFV, but I think I’ll pay the extra $30 for GFV, and lose 11 month booking for my preferred resort, because if I ever want to rent out my points, it might be slightly easier to rent out my GFV points.”

Sure BLT rents well but to your same point most outsiders would prefer to rent VGF than BLT.

Because most people see GFV as superior.

But hold on, if GFV has such great availability within the 7 month window, then there would be no preference to renting GFV points. People could just rent SSR points and use them at GFV at 7 months.

Or, are you suggesting GFV availability is already limited at GFV?! Even though it has unrestricted points?!?!

And if 7 month availability is already so tight, won’t that get even worse, based on your logic?!?

So the problem you predict for Riviera, ALREADY exists for several unrestricted resorts??

With VDH and PVB I'm so glad they are back to adding the 2nd and 3rd bathrooms.
Depending on how many people are going that is a reason we book BLT over VGF.

Absolutely. But if that was an ongoing preference, not a mere isolated trip, then they would have purchased BLT.

 

[havoc315]

Good point.

I'm assuming that is why Disney keeps buying those contracts and then having a fire sale on them once they are 2057 contracts.

Likely true. Doesn’t do them any good to have a DVC resort with only 10% points sold (or whatever). Eventually, direct demand for a 2057 resort will really be dead. But right now, 32 more years left… At the right price, there is still potential demand. So convert as many as those points now. If they waited until 2042, they wouldn’t get much interest in 15 year contracts.

But my speculative guess—- OKW will become like the Fort Wilderness Cabins now. Most of the resort will be used as a regular cash Disney resort, but OKW 2057 owners will still have a pool of declared units.
WDW could event start major renovations / re-imagining, as long as a portion of the property remains available for DVC.
(Can’t do massive re-imagining while fully sold, because need to be able to have most rooms always available for DVC guests. They can really only renovate a few rooms at a time).

 

[Mouseforward]

OKW will become like the Fort Wilderness Cabins now. Most of the resort will be used as a regular cash Disney resort, but OKW 2057 owners will still have a pool of declared units.

It would be a hard sell as a cash resort to me. Walk up , bus only and odd studios. I think you are more on track with tear down and renovate parts at a time.

 

[havoc315]

It would be a hard sell as a cash resort to me. Walk up , bus only and odd studios. I think you are more on track with tear down and renovate parts at a time.

All about the price. With nightly prices in the range of a value or mod resort, I suspect they would do well as cash rooms.