IF I were shopping for resale RIV…

[juliebee]

Is there really the demand out there for a ton more DVC resorts than already exist today? If so, parks will need more expansion.

I believe there is an area that DVC hasn't tapped into yet and that is moderate-level accommodations. There are so many people out there in their 20's and 30's (or older) that are unable to purchase a home because of the high costs of home ownership. People in that category probably aren't going to be looking into a major DVC purchase of 30K+. However, these people still vacation. So offer a less expensive DVC version, like French Quarter, at maybe $150/pt direct and then DVC direct is now competing with the resale market prices. So I believe there is a demand for a ton more DVC... but at a different price point than currently offered by direct.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I believe there is an area that DVC hasn't tapped into yet and that is moderate-level accommodations. There are so many people out there in their 20's and 30's (or older) that are unable to purchase a home because of the high costs of home ownership. People in that category probably aren't going to be looking into a major DVC purchase of 30K+. However, these people still vacation. So offer a less expensive DVC version, like French Quarter, at maybe $150/pt direct and then DVC direct is now competing with the resale market prices. So I believe there is a demand for a ton more DVC... but at a different price point than currently offered by direct.

I agree. This is such a fine line though and may cannibalize their current offerings. They would have to be very careful and intentional to make this work for them.

 

[Mouseforward]

I believe there is an area that DVC hasn't tapped into yet and that is moderate-level accommodations... that are unable to purchase a home because of the high costs of home ownership.

I would love that for the 20-30 year olds, but if I was saving for a mortgage again, even 10k on a timeshare is at best, a questionable decision.

I think that DVC is for people who have homes, and are comfortable in their finances. If I was not at the tail end of a mortgage that is half of what I would have to spend on rent , with sub 3% interest I would not have DVC.

To make a moderate DVC you run into the FW Cabin problem, Low points per night = High MF. If you did a lower cost to purchase you then have to limit where they can trade at 7 months to be fair.

The best option for low cost DVC for younger members is 50% of a restricted resort, meaning buy 75 resale Riviera points at $115 and go every 2 years. It will last 44 years and you can add on when you are more secure.

 

[havoc315]

The Riviera resale owner still has competition from all eligible resale and direct owners. If RIV resale owner can't secure a room there is no backup plan other than to waitlist, bank the points or use II.

And that lack of backup or lack of significant backup will apply to the vast majority of resale owners in a few years.

The SSR has a lot of rooms at its own resort that people don't try and get until the last minute and possibly one of the non restricted resorts.

 

[havoc315]

Most likely yes but there are certainly other factors if you were going to hold the contract such as dues and rentability.

Dues at GFV are nearly identical to BLT. Nobody would pay $30 more per point to save 9 cents in dues. It would take over 300 years to break even.

And I doubt there is a single buyer ever who said, “I really prefer BLT over GFV, but I think I’ll pay the extra $30 for GFV, and lose 11 month booking for my preferred resort, because if I ever want to rent out my points, it might be slightly easier to rent out my GFV points.”

Sure BLT rents well but to your same point most outsiders would prefer to rent VGF than BLT.

Because most people see GFV as superior.

But hold on, if GFV has such great availability within the 7 month window, then there would be no preference to renting GFV points. People could just rent SSR points and use them at GFV at 7 months.

Or, are you suggesting GFV availability is already limited at GFV?! Even though it has unrestricted points?!?!

And if 7 month availability is already so tight, won’t that get even worse, based on your logic?!?

So the problem you predict for Riviera, ALREADY exists for several unrestricted resorts??

With VDH and PVB I'm so glad they are back to adding the 2nd and 3rd bathrooms.
Depending on how many people are going that is a reason we book BLT over VGF.

Absolutely. But if that was an ongoing preference, not a mere isolated trip, then they would have purchased BLT.

 

[havoc315]

Good point.

I'm assuming that is why Disney keeps buying those contracts and then having a fire sale on them once they are 2057 contracts.

Likely true. Doesn’t do them any good to have a DVC resort with only 10% points sold (or whatever). Eventually, direct demand for a 2057 resort will really be dead. But right now, 32 more years left… At the right price, there is still potential demand. So convert as many as those points now. If they waited until 2042, they wouldn’t get much interest in 15 year contracts.

But my speculative guess—- OKW will become like the Fort Wilderness Cabins now. Most of the resort will be used as a regular cash Disney resort, but OKW 2057 owners will still have a pool of declared units.
WDW could event start major renovations / re-imagining, as long as a portion of the property remains available for DVC.
(Can’t do massive re-imagining while fully sold, because need to be able to have most rooms always available for DVC guests. They can really only renovate a few rooms at a time).

 

[Mouseforward]

OKW will become like the Fort Wilderness Cabins now. Most of the resort will be used as a regular cash Disney resort, but OKW 2057 owners will still have a pool of declared units.

It would be a hard sell as a cash resort to me. Walk up , bus only and odd studios. I think you are more on track with tear down and renovate parts at a time.

 

[havoc315]

It would be a hard sell as a cash resort to me. Walk up , bus only and odd studios. I think you are more on track with tear down and renovate parts at a time.

All about the price. With nightly prices in the range of a value or mod resort, I suspect they would do well as cash rooms.

 

[eticketplease]

Dues at GFV are nearly identical to BLT. Nobody would pay $30 more per point to save 9 cents in dues. It would take over 300 years to break even.

And I doubt there is a single buyer ever who said, “I really prefer BLT over GFV, but I think I’ll pay the extra $30 for GFV, and lose 11 month booking for my preferred resort, because if I ever want to rent out my points, it might be slightly easier to rent out my GFV points.”

Have you met Scrooge McDuck? One more cent is enough for his #1 Dime.

I said there were other factors and dues could be one of them. I certainly never said that was the deciding factor for buying VGF but staying at BLT with those points.

Looking at one of the websites that lists different contracts there is a VGF for $150 and a BLT for $125 for 100 points.
If you base it on that the VGF is $25 more but it nets you 4 additional years of vacations as it expires in 2064 instead of 2060 for BLT.
Now you are really only talking a premium of $6.25 for the flagship resort.
Unlike booking at VGF, one doesn't need the 11 month window to get into a lake view 1 bedroom at BLT that they can switch to at 7 months which would take less points. Using the 100 point contract previously mentioned staying in Season 1 during 9/7/26 - 9/10/26 a BLT Lake/Preferred 1 Bedroom costs 87 points and there are 101 total rooms giving the ability to 7 month pretty good odds. On the other hand VGF Resort/Standard 1 bedroom costs 93 points and since there are only 30 total rooms in that category you would most likely have to book in the owner's priority time frame. Now this example doesn't net the longer stay as @atthebeachclub was mentioning but it does allow one to bank points to the next year and have a second bathroom.

As far as renting goes you can demand more for your points at VGF than you can at BLT. Not only is it the flagship resort but it now has an abundance of studios (VGF - 247 vs BLT - 147) which caters to the rental market. Oh and of course the VGF studios sleep 5 which is a game changer when trying rent.

Sure BLT rents well but to your same point most outsiders would prefer to rent VGF than BLT.

Because most people see GFV as superior.

But hold on, if GFV has such great availability within the 7 month window, then there would be no preference to renting GFV points. People could just rent SSR points and use them at GFV at 7 months.

Or, are you suggesting GFV availability is already limited at GFV?! Even though it has unrestricted points?!?!

Yes most people see VGF as superior but it also has to factor in the much larger number of studios that sleep 5.

Never mentioned availability at VGF so not sure what brought this up. My replies were more about people staying longer and not necessarily fancier as @atthebeachclub had mentioned. My response suggested people can and have in the past purchase VGF over BLT for various reasons to stay at BLT and as SAP.

You still need home resort priority if you are trying to book anything in the original building and if you wanted a TP resort studio.

Yes people can and do use SSR points to book any of the O14 resorts and try to rent those out but obviously that will be much harder to grab the dates people want if they don't own there. As a VGF owner I know I can book at Christmas or Easter if I was renting points and someone staying there. If I was a SSR owner I don't know what would be able to rent on a certain date other than at SSR.
Renting points like your example of using SSR for VGF also would not get paid the premium price from DVCrentalstore.com or David's as they would be inside the 7 month window hence why owning VGF would be the better choice.

 

[DougEMG]

You’re forgetting the fact that in order to trade into a resort, people usually have to trade out thus with resale at Riviera they are stuck and will be booking at 11 months to get something leaving folks like us who like to book at 7 months struggling to get in.

Resale RIV owner here, and I plan to always book at 11 months to ensure I get to use my points.

As there are more resale owners, less rooms will open up at the 7 month mark. The question then become how big that pool of resale owners is; I personally hope it is small so I have less competition.

 

[Sandisw]

It would be a hard sell as a cash resort to me. Walk up , bus only and odd studios. I think you are more on track with tear down and renovate parts at a time.

The problem is that they can’t tear down until after 2057 unless they ask owners to sign a new deed attached to new units.

Right now, there are owners in every building and as long as that is the case, then they can’t remove the actual building.

Might be easy to get owners to do that who extended to 2057.

 

[DougEMG]

The problem is that they can’t tear down until after 2057 unless they ask owners to sign a new deed attached to new units.

Right now, there are owners in every building and as long as that is the case, then they can’t remove the actual building.

Might be easy to get owners to do that who extended to 2057.

My assumption is that the extended contracts are probably randomly distributed across all the buildings which will require them to keep all the buildings open. So come 2042, they are going to have to do something with all those rooms that no longer have owners attached to them.

Options are (1) rent them for cash or (2) sell them as 15 year contracts (isn't there a limit on how short a contract can be?)/

I'm still hoping that they will give OKW owners a chance to extend just before we hit 2042.

 

[Mouseforward]

My assumption is that the extended contracts are probably randomly distributed across all the buildings which will require them to keep all the buildings open. So come 2042, they are going to have to do something with all those rooms that no longer have owners attached to them.

Options are (1) rent them for cash or (2) sell them as 15 year contracts (isn't there a limit on how short a contract can be?)/

I'm still hoping that they will give OKW owners a chance to extend just before we hit 2042.

My deeds have language that the assigned unit is an arbitrary measure. I think they could simply reallocate to a few units.

 

[Sandisw]

My assumption is that the extended contracts are probably randomly distributed across all the buildings which will require them to keep all the buildings open. So come 2042, they are going to have to do something with all those rooms that no longer have owners attached to them.

Options are (1) rent them for cash or (2) sell them as 15 year contracts (isn't there a limit on how short a contract can be?)/

I'm still hoping that they will give OKW owners a chance to extend just before we hit 2042.

Yes, that is correct. They can certainly shutter building for use, regardless of whether owners own there since we can be put in any room....but they can't undeclare any building or units because you have owners in each.

The only way to do that, post 2042, would be to ask each 2057 owner to sign a new deed attached to a new unit so that they could do something with building now owned solely by DVD.

My guess is that they will just rent for cash, or maybe even use them as part of an exchange program for owners with restricted points....but, another option, as you say, is giving owners with 2042 the option to extend....

 

[Sandisw]

My deeds have language that the assigned unit is an arbitrary measure. I think they could simply reallocate to a few units.

The number of points is an arbritary number to represent ownership, but the % of ownership is tied to a specific unit. That is how they determine how many total points can be sold per unit because they can't sell more than 100% interest in that unit (and DVD usually keeps 2% or more of each unit for themselves)

For example, my VGF deeds are assigned to Unit 11....at BPK...that unit comprises 101 rooms on floors 3, 4 and 5....that means, my ownership is tied to one of those rooms....DVC can't undeclare Unit 11 as long as owners have a deeded interest to them.

So, if someone has OKW 2057 deeded to Unit 3, and unit 3 compreises rooms in Building 24 (making these up), then DVC can't remove Unit three from the condo assocation.

 

[eticketplease]

The number of points is an arbritary number to represent ownership, but the % of ownership is tied to a specific unit. That is how they determine how many total points can be sold per unit because they can't sell more than 100% interest in that unit (and DVD usually keeps 2% or more of each unit for themselves)

For example, my VGF deeds are assigned to Unit 11....at BPK...that unit comprises 101 rooms on floors 3, 4 and 5....that means, my ownership is tied to one of those rooms....DVC can't undeclare Unit 11 as long as owners have a deeded interest to them.

So, if someone has OKW 2057 deeded to Unit 3, and unit 3 compreises rooms in Building 24 (making these up), then DVC can't remove Unit three from the condo assocation.

So do you think then that Disney is then paying attention to the units when contracts are submitted to ROFR? Choosing to buy back certain contracts that would complete a building for example?

 

[havoc315]

Have you met Scrooge McDuck? One more cent is enough for his #1 Dime.

No, he is a better business man. He wouldn’t pay an extra $25 in order to get a dime discount. That’s a net loss of $24.90. Over 40 years, it’s still a net loss of $21.

I said there were other factors and dues could be one of them. I certainly never said that was the deciding factor for buying VGF but staying at BLT with those points.

Looking at one of the websites that lists different contracts there is a VGF for $150 and a BLT for $125 for 100 points.
If you base it on that the VGF is $25 more but it nets you 4 additional years of vacations as it expires in 2064 instead of 2060 for BLT.
Now you are really only talking a premium of $6.25 for the flagship resort.
Unlike booking at VGF, one doesn't need the 11 month window

Need 11 month window? So, your fear of Riviera is already the reality of VGF, even without so-called restrictions?

You already need 11 month windows at desirable resorts? Fascinating!

to get into a lake view 1 bedroom at BLT that they can switch to at 7 months which would take less points. Using the 100 point contract previously mentioned staying in Season 1 during 9/7/26 - 9/10/26 a BLT Lake/Preferred 1 Bedroom costs 87 points and there are 101 total rooms giving the ability to 7 month pretty good odds. On the other hand VGF Resort/Standard 1 bedroom costs 93 points and since there are only 30 total rooms in that category you would most likely have to book in the owner's priority time frame. Now this example doesn't net the longer stay as @atthebeachclub was mentioning but it does allow one to bank points to the next year and have a second bathroom.

As far as renting goes you can demand more for your points at VGF than you can at BLT. Not only is it the flagship resort but it now has an abundance of studios (VGF - 247 vs BLT - 147) which caters to the rental market. Oh and of course the VGF studios sleep 5 which is a game changer when trying rent.



Yes most people see VGF as superior but it also has to factor in the much larger number of studios that sleep 5.

Never mentioned availability at VGF so not sure what brought this up. My replies were more about people staying longer and not necessarily fancier as @atthebeachclub had mentioned. My response suggested people can and have in the past purchase VGF over BLT for various reasons to stay at BLT and as SAP.

You still need home resort priority if you are trying to book anything in the original building and if you wanted a TP resort studio.

Yes people can and do use SSR points to book any of the O14 resorts and try to rent those out but obviously that will be much harder to grab the dates people want if they don't own there. As a VGF owner I know I can book at Christmas or Easter if I was renting points and someone staying there. If I was a SSR owner I don't know what would be able to rent on a certain date other than at SSR.
Renting points like your example of using SSR for VGF also would not get paid the premium price from DVCrentalstore.com or David's as they would be inside the 7 month window hence why owning VGF would be the better choice.

You truly have lost me in this whole rental discussion. Not a single person on earth would pay more for a resort they don’t want, lose the home advantage on their desired resort, just in case they might rent the points some day, so they could get $1-$2 more renting.

Let’s do the math:
Approximately another 35 years of ownership.
Buy 100 points.

GFV points average about $30 more than BLT points.

So that’s an extra $3000.
But the dues are currently a dime less. Doesn’t mean the dues will always be a dime less, but let’s assume we can reliably say they will stick to a dime less.
So over 35 years, that’s $350 savings!
So now, GFV is only $2650 more than BLT!
Ahh, but going to rent out the points 20% of the time, get an extra $2 per point from GFV renting. Even renting out 7 out of 35 years, that’s an extra $1400 in revenue.

So now, GFV is only $1250 more than BLT!

But the extra years! Being they are distant future, they actually have a minimal value of on current dollars. Would you pay me $800 today, for a guaranteed hotel room in 2065? I’ve seen the math before, those last years are only worth a couple dollars per point.

Even with the math most generous to your arguments, you’d be paying $1,000 more for the points at GFV than at BLT. You’d lose the 11 month advantage, making it much harder to book standard and TPV studios, etc.

So only a moron who prefers BLT, would spend extra on GFV.

People who buy GFV primarily want to stay at GFV — whether restricted or not. People who buy other cheaper resorts want to trade in to GFV. Which is why availability is often limited at 7 months.
And as you said, availability is already very limited at GFV.
Which simply proves your theoretical Riviera issue has nothing to do with resale restrictions, as the issue already exists at other unrestricted resorts!

 

[Sandisw]

So do you think then that Disney is then paying attention to the units when contracts are submitted to ROFR? Choosing to buy back certain contracts that would complete a building for example?

That is definitely something that we have heard they do....because in order to sell a contract at any resort, they have to have enough points within the same unit to do that.....

 

[atthebeachclub]

Some of the messages here seem a little condescending.

One of the main reasons I imagine VGF would be more popular and more expensive on the secondary market is due to having three sleeping surfaces in a studio. 1 bedrooms are a significant point jump from studios everywhere, and if a family of four has kids who don’t want to share beds, your options are limited, so even a location with a high point chart may be preferable to a location where you’d need to have 1 bedrooms or larger. There aren’t many locations like this with longer expiration dates, VGF is one of them. BLT is not.