I need some help with a decision on buying plane tickets. EDIT: I bought them

[mill4023]

I've been watching fares for a few weeks and I'm stressing over what to do right now.
We're planning a 2 week trip to WDW March 25 - April 8 next year. We're on a budget so every dollar we can save counts.

Fares from our hometown here in Southern Oregon are always really high (> $500 right now) so with 6 tickets to buy, it's out of the question. The next best option would be to fly out of Portland, OR. It's a 5 hour drive but isn't so bad because my mom lives in Eugene (on the way and 2 hrs from Portland). Portland often has decent fares, but is around $400 right now. I've been hoping SWA would extend their schedule for our dates, but there is no guarantee they will even have any decent fares since it's peak spring break time. In Nov, Dec(except xmas), and Jan, SWA has plenty of $99 one way internet fares available, but from what I've heard, they may not have any of these available for our dates.

The other option is that I can get tickets right now for $239(including taxes) flying from San Francisco to Tampa a day earlier than we planned.

The advantages of buying these tickets are:
They are a good price, saving us about $1000 over flying out of PDX.
They are available right now and who knows what SWA fares will be like when they do come out for PDX.

The disadvantges of buying these tickets are:
I have to drive 6 hours to SFO instead of 5 hours to PDX
I don't have a free place to stay 2 hours from the airport.
I have to fly into Tampa instead of Orlando, so we have a longer drive from the airport to the WDW area.
I have to take an extra day off work to leave on a Friday instead of Saturday.

Any opinions?
I'm really stressing over whether to jump on these or wait it out.

 

[canwegosoon]

For me this is the most stressful part of planning our trip.

This is how I wook at it...if it is going to save you $1000 is it worth 5 hour drive each way (close one for me... I'd say yes).
The SWA is flexible about price adjustments, so if a cheaper flight came out you could get a refund.
The SFO seems a little harder...would the cost of 2 rooms each day be a better cost offset.

I think I would
1 watch for SWA...Maybe this week
2. Keep a watch on the Portland flights (when swa releases their dates others usually match flights)
3. Flights from Southern Oregon
4. The SFO flights
5.Try not to stress...use the United coupons in the entertainment book if poss.

 

[mill4023]

The $1000 savings is by driving 6 hours instead of 5. To fly out of our local airport would be over $3000 for the 6 of us.

We wouldn't need to get a room in SF on the way down because it is a redeye, which has it's own good and bad points. Good because our 2 yr old will sleep, bad because we'll be tired. But that first day there would have been a travel day anyway, so we won't plan anything for it.

On the way back, we'd need a room in SF, but it might also be nice because we could spend the night, then spend the morning in SF, which we enjoy, before driving home.

 

[Brian Noble]

How much does a day of work cost you?

You're in a bit of a bind, no doubt about it. Unless there is some low-cost carrier at your "home" airport, I wouldn't think those prices will go down much, due to the peak-season you are considering. I think I might hold out on PDX until SW releases fares, but it's a big risk. One thing you could do: price out SW fares from PDX to MCO during the Christmas break---that will give you a sense for SW "peak" pricing, and help you make a better informed decision. If the SW fares for Christmas from PDX are still within your budget, you might consider waiting. If they are not, you might just need to bite the bullet and go to SFO.

I'm willing to use TPA if I'm saving $100 or more each way---it's only 30-45 minutes longer to WDW than it is from MCO, unless I-4 is in worse than usual shape. There seems to be perpetual construction on that segment of I-4, but usually it's not a horrid delay. The other additional cost at TPA: if you were planning to use ME, you pretty much need a rental car (which we get anyway). I suppose you could get a towncar, but it will be pretty stiff.

 

[mill4023]

How much does a day of work cost you?

You're in a bit of a bind, no doubt about it. Unless there is some low-cost carrier at your "home" airport, I wouldn't think those prices will go down much, due to the peak-season you are considering. I think I might hold out on PDX until SW releases fares, but it's a big risk. One thing you could do: price out SW fares from PDX to MCO during the Christmas break---that will give you a sense for SW "peak" pricing, and help you make a better informed decision. If the SW fares for Christmas from PDX are still within your budget, you might consider waiting. If they are not, you might just need to bite the bullet and go to SFO.

I'm willing to use TPA if I'm saving $100 or more each way---it's only 30-45 minutes longer to WDW than it is from MCO, unless I-4 is in worse than usual shape. There seems to be perpetual construction on that segment of I-4, but usually it's not a horrid delay. The other additional cost at TPA: if you were planning to use ME, you pretty much need a rental car (which we get anyway). I suppose you could get a towncar, but it will be pretty stiff.

I'm not sure how to quantify the extra day of work. I'm not really "paying" anything to take the extra day off, it just means I'll have 1 less day of vacation for the remainder of the year.
Nope, no low cost carriers from our local airport. We only have America West, United, Horizon(operates short flights for American Airlines), and Skywest(operates short flights for United and Delta).

I looked at the SW fares for Christmas and they are pretty high. There are $99 one-way fares available up through Dec 15th. From Dec 15th to Jan 4th, the fares vary from $177 and up one-way.
But I don't know if this means they never had the $99 fares for these dates or if it just means they are already sold out.

We were planning to rent a car anyway, so that's not an extra expense, but it is about $120 more right now if we get it in Tampa.

 

[Brian Noble]

Well, let's suppose that you can get $300 round trip on SW. If you could do that, would you rather go to PDX, or SFO?

Alternatively, how much more would you pay (total) to fly PDX-MCO rather than SFO-TPA? Once you know that answer, you can figure backwards to what the SW flights would have to be under, and try to guess whether that is realistic.

As for how much a day's work is worth to you: If you often find yourself with extra vacation days at the end of the year, then each extra vacation day is worth less. If you often find yourself wondering why you don't have more vacation days, then each extra vacation day is worth more.

 

[SB in KY]

I would not jump on the fare from SF right now....my niece flies MCO to Portland fairly often usually on SW for about $215 RT including taxes, fees etc, sometimes she can snag a DING for a little less. Here are a few things to consider...

If you fly into Tampa you cannot use Magic Express and since there are 6 of you it will mean renting at least a minivan for your stay which will probably run about $300/week out of Tampa during Spring Break vs DME which is free.

I am assuming airport parking at SFO will be pretty pricey probably $50+ more for the week than Portland

Personally I am NOT fond of that drive from Tampa, especially after you have been up all night flying across the continent...figure 1 to 2 hours transit time to WDW (and since I have never made that trip when I4 was not a construction nightmare it is always more like 2 hours in my experience)

You will have at least 1 hotel night in SF that you would not have to pay for if flying out of Portland and using Chez Mom's!!

I really think if you hold on a while longer you will find fares as low for PDX - MCO as the ones you see now for SFO - TPA...none of the legaciy carriers will drop their fares until SW opens up the schedule for that date and then everyone else will come down too. They will offer low fares for your dates, you just have to watch like a hawk when they open up those dates.

Another advantage to waiting for SW...if a lower fare comes along you can always save the difference....if you bite now on the SFO - TPA, then you are stuck.

 

[pumpkinboy]

OK, so there are only two airports in Southern Oregon that I know of with scheduled service, and I'm guessing your's is Medford (from the distance to Eugene and Portland). So I did a little Orbitz search from MFR, and another out of PDX for your dates with airport flexibility (MCO or TPA) on the Florida end. Looking at best price to best price I am seeing a mere $60 per ticket difference (total $360) which I am not sure justifies the drive up to Portland.

Here's the best Medford combination I am finding: ~$443 per person to TPA via Phoenix on America West, but with nearly reasonable times (dep MFR 5:50 am, arr TPA 4:01 PM on inbound, similar early hours on return).

Now out of Portland, the schedule's not as good, but the price is lower: ~$384 per person. Times are odd but at least the inbound takes you to MCO. Inbound on United lv 7:00 pm from PDX, fly via LAX, arr MCO at 5:50 am. Return is out of TPA on Frontier, lv 9:00 am via Denver, arr PDX at 1:55 pm.

Restricting the search to MCO as the destination might be better for you, tho the best price I found out of MFR was $453 p/p with 2 stops on the inbound. PDX to MCO looks better with only one stop and a total price of ~$400 p/p.

Perhaps sitting tight and waiting for SWA to release fares out of PDX or Oakland, or maybe Sacramento (farther than PDX, nearer than San Fran but perhaps less scenic).

Good luck with the planning!

 

[mill4023]

Thanks for all the opinions. You've given me lots to think about.
We enjoy visiting SF and it's been a couple years since we've been there, so it might be nice to spend a day there. The only concern is that we might be so exhausted after 2 weeks at WDW that we won't feel like walking around SF. Although I am planning to make this a more relaxed visit with more rest days. That's why I wanted to make it 2 weeks this time.

As of right now, I've got the tickets on AA from SFO-TPA on hold. I guess I've got until tomorrow night to buy them. So we'll see.

EDIT: Ok, I just double checked and putting a hold on a reservation with AA does NOT guarantee your fare. All it does is hold your seats but the fare can still go up before you purchase.
So I went ahead and bought them.
I spent some time talking with my wife again and we decided that getting to spend a day in SF(along with the good fares) was a big enough plus that we should go ahead and do it. The last two times we were down in California, we planned on going to SF and didn't make it. Both times our kids were disappointed since they really had fun a couple years ago when we spent the day there. We'll be getting back to SF around 6pm on Friday, March 7th so we'll spend the night and have most of the day Saturday to go to Fisherman's Wharf, visit Ghiradelli Square, and maybe take the tour of Alcatraz.
Thanks again for the help.