Hurricane Irma?

[ElenaJane]

The track has changed quite a bit. I'm from CT and I arrive on the 16th. I was a bit worried it would come up the east coast before I could fly out. I think I'm ok now but I'm worried for you all arriving earlier. Hopefully it will just graze the coast, good luck!

We are flying into MCO from VA on the 16th also! I think we will dodge the Irma bullet (though I am thinking the parks will be a lot more crowded with locals who avoided the parks during the downpour). I am watching the "Tropical Wave" that is following behind Irma. That sucker may effect us http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/where_is_hurricane_irma_on_sun.html

 

[5forDis]

I don't think most people are looking for hard and fast answers. But talking through possibilities means being able to wrap our heads around options, make a solid plan B and C so that we can make informed decisions on very short notice. I personally appreciate everyone who has been sharing all the different perspectives so that I won't START replanting with 24 hours lead time and I can set my expectations appropriately.

It also helps to have others to talk about this with who understand the position. We all know it is speculation at this point but having a back up plan is handy and makes it more bearable.

My other question--can Halloween tickets be refunded for extreme weather? Is it possible to cancel Star Wars Gallactical Dessert Party?? I will start researching this but didn't know if anyone had experience with this happening.

 

[Lilly0704]

So she Disney has effectively but down due to hurricanes before, did they reimburse you for unused tickets? Or are we just out of luck?

 

[Tonyz]

Very cool website ... you can move it by hour or dates.

https://www.ventusky.com/

Very cool site! Going by this one Orlando starts to feel the outer edge of it Sunday night. Winds never get worse than 20 MPH the entire day. Monday looks... not very fun.

If this keeps consistent (which it probably won't) I wouldn't be surprised if the parks close next Monday.

 

[HopperFan]

Very cool site! Going by this one Orlando starts to feel the outer edge of it Sunday night. Monday looks... not very fun.

If this keeps consistent (which it probably won't) I wouldn't be surprised if the parks close next Monday.

The magic word. Of course once this hits more land the whole projection could change but I expect FL, some parts, to get something. I just called DS and told him to bring in all the porch furniture before he left ........... so now it probably won't get to us ........ like it rains at WDW when I leave my poncho in the room.

At least this gives me more than just a big circle and cone on a map. The winds help follow it better. Good luck to everyone traveling!

 

[DLM1980]

So she Disney has effectively but down due to hurricanes before, did they reimburse you for unused tickets? Or are we just out of luck?

We were offered either a refund or a regular 1 day ticket for our MNSSH ticket last year

I believe they were also downgrading multiday tickets to one day prior if asked but I'm not sure as I didn't take advantage of that

 

[Roxyfire]

Will they waive ADR fees if the parks close early?

Yes, during Matthew they cancelled all ADRs resort wide for thursday evening and friday all day. No fees were issued. Remember, those fees are to deter people who make tons of reservations and never show up. They don't use it as a way to funnel cash as much as people would like to think they do.

We arrive at the Poly on Sunday and the plan is Hollywood Studios Monday and then we have tickets for Extra Magic Morning in Magic Kingdom on Tuesday.

Would those tickets be refunded if the park is closed? What are the chances of the park BEING closed on Tuesday if this thing hits Sunday?

Ugh. This is making me think about cancelling the whole trip... It's a LOT of money to lose out on two park days and our favorite ADRs at Chef Mickey's and Crystal Palace AND Ohana breakfast...

The halloween parties were refunded with a few options. I would expect since it's a prepaid dining option, they would just refund it like a dessert party or CRT. I didn't lose any park days but if I had, I would have asked for a 1 day comp ticket. Depending on the timing you might lose a day and a half or two. I would ask the hotel concierge for comp tickets, as others at that time did. They ended up issuing millions in refunds during those two full days. Only you can decide whether you want to cancel or go, but you can always wait and see.

 

[AngiTN]

Will they waive ADR fees if the parks close early?

Disney is a lot of things, greedy being one of them, but if the restaurant is closed even they won't charge you a no show fee for not showing up when they are the one that is closed.

How quickly does a hurricane lose wind speed once it makes landfall? I'm just curious if the latest model becomes true, it will have about 300 miles on top of land from when it hits the southern tip of Florida until it reaches Orlando. Will we have whole trees flying through our window at Pop Century?

Very quickly. There will not be entire trees blowing through windows at your resort. Land is the mortal enemy of a hurricane.

Very cool site! Going by this one Orlando starts to feel the outer edge of it Sunday night. Winds never get worse than 20 MPH the entire day. Monday looks... not very fun.

If this keeps consistent (which it probably won't) I wouldn't be surprised if the parks close next Monday.

Do really think if the prediction is no worse than 20 mph (no worse than Matthew) they'll close it all down again?
I'm not so sure

 

[Tonyz]

Do really think if the prediction is no worse than 20 mph (no worse than Matthew) they'll close it all down again?
I'm not so sure

No I don't think Disney gets shut down on Sunday with these predictions... definitely not. Halloween Party would probably still be on, too.

But Monday starts to get a lot worse. 70-75 MPH. I think there's no way they stay open with that.

 

[AngiTN]

No I don't think Disney gets shut down on Sunday with these predictions... definitely not. Halloween Party would probably still be on, too.

But Monday starts to get a lot worse. 70-75 MPH. I think there's no way they stay open with that.

Ah, yeah, I can see if it is that bad for certain. I am curious to see what they do after they took some heat for being so overly cautious last year. It costs a lot to shut down Orlando like they did last year and it ended up being for nothing at all.

Happens here all the time in winter. Sort of like Orlando, where they live in a spot that is hard to determine when it may or may not get Hurricane related weather, we live in a spot that is hard to predict when we may or may not get frozen precipitation. Our temps hover right at the freezing mark quite often and the forecasts can miss by just a degree or two and it makes the difference from rain to snow. Every year they'll call for snow or ice and close schools, etc, only to have it stay rain the entire time and every year they get massive grief over it so that next time, they leave them in school and wait too long to call it off and then get kids stuck heading home, and take massive grief over it and the cycle continues. Year after year.

When you are talking about nature it's impossible to be perfect but somehow, everyone thinks you can be. Even with all the science we have today, it's still nature. Nature does what nature wants to do, science be damned.

 

[CounselorX]

No I don't think Disney gets shut down on Sunday with these predictions... definitely not. Halloween Party would probably still be on, too.

But Monday starts to get a lot worse. 70-75 MPH. I think there's no way they stay open with that.

Yep, if Ventusky holds accurate (I'm not sure which models they use) then I would assume Monday will be shut down. It is worth noting that some of the models in the Euro ensemble are still showing a northeast curve back into the sea. That'd be wonderful.

 

[OKW Lover]

It seems like lots of people think this storm will hit Florida. Watching the latest NHC forecast it actually looks to me like there is a chance that it will pass into the gulf.

 

[SaintsManiac]

It seems like lots of people think this storm will hit Florida. Watching the latest NHC forecast it actually looks to me like there is a chance that it will pass into the gulf.

Chances for that are low, but anything is possible at this point.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Ah, yeah, I can see if it is that bad for certain. I am curious to see what they do after they took some heat for being so overly cautious last year. It costs a lot to shut down Orlando like they did last year and it ended up being for nothing at all.

Happens here all the time in winter. Sort of like Orlando, where they live in a spot that is hard to determine when it may or may not get Hurricane related weather, we live in a spot that is hard to predict when we may or may not get frozen precipitation. Our temps hover right at the freezing mark quite often and the forecasts can miss by just a degree or two and it makes the difference from rain to snow. Every year they'll call for snow or ice and close schools, etc, only to have it stay rain the entire time and every year they get massive grief over it so that next time, they leave them in school and wait too long to call it off and then get kids stuck heading home, and take massive grief over it and the cycle continues. Year after year.

When you are talking about nature it's impossible to be perfect but somehow, everyone thinks you can be. Even with all the science we have today, it's still nature. Nature does what nature wants to do, science be damned.

We had our schools closed last week for Harvey. I'm in the Baton Rouge area and nothing happened other than a bit of wind. No one was really angry about that. We had kids evacuated off of buses last year during the huge flood, so most people feel "better safe than sorry."

 

[Maggie'sMom]

It seems like lots of people think this storm will hit Florida. Watching the latest NHC forecast it actually looks to me like there is a chance that it will pass into the gulf.

As much as I want this to miss Orlando, I really don't want this going into the Gulf.

 

[stickeymouse]

I think I need to ignore this thread for the next couple of days. You people are giving me an ulcer.

 

[AngiTN]

We had our schools closed last week for Harvey. I'm in the Baton Rouge area and nothing happened other than a bit of wind. No one was really angry about that. We had kids evacuated off of buses last year during the huge flood, so most people feel "better safe than sorry."

That's the way it works, when you do close for what ends up as nothing on the heels of not closing when there was an incident (like evacuating kids off buses) it is ok. But let another year or two go by where they forget the evacuation and remember closing for nothing, see what they say. People's memories are short. Well, they are here at least. Maybe other areas don't have complainers like we do? It gets quite comical to see the people taking photos of their green grassy yards, with the kids out of school for what was supposed to be 4" of snow. I know our schools get quite relived when these forecasts fall on a weekend instead of a weekday

 

[j2thomason]

It seems like lots of people think this storm will hit Florida. Watching the latest NHC forecast it actually looks to me like there is a chance that it will pass into the gulf.

Even if that happens, Florida will still be on the "dirty" side of the storm with lots or wind, rain and possibly tornadoes.

 

[hamilkm]

We are scheduled the 6-13. There is no way to know before we go where it may hit. I just reserved a rental car to have to be on the safe side. This way if it looks like we need to evacuate we can just head out or if on Wednesday flights are backed up we can head out Wednesday morning and go home. I have a doctors appointment for a procedure that I can't miss on Thursday the 14th. That is really my main worry right now is getting home the 13th.

 

[smallworldnh]

Flying to MCO 9/12. YC 9/12-9/15. Disney cruise 9/15-9/18. Glad I bought insurance but I sure hope it still goes smoothly. I need this vacation. We only vacation once a year usually and we plan months out. This is just something that can happen..... I remember my trip in

2014 was a mess. Our flight home was canceled. My dad was put into the hospital with complications due to lung cancer. He had just finished his radiation and he thought he was going to get better. I felt so helplesssince we were stranded. We got home and daddy was in a coma. He passed a couple of weeks Later. I wish I could have had that one more day.

Oh that's so sad. I truly hope this trip turns out perfect for you. Here's for hoping this thing turns north and stays at sea.