Hurricane Irma Updates ***Check First Post for closures and more info***

[Shelly F - Ohio]

They are loath to do that...

I believe September 12, 2001 was the first or maybe second time they ever had a shutdown...they only pull the trigger if absolutely necessary

Last year for hurricane Michael Disney closed down everything.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Last year for hurricane Michael Disney closed down everything.

They have become more open to the possibility as time has moved on. But still that's a major revenue disruption so it's always a last resort.

 

[rteetz]

Orlando International will close at 5PM Saturday

https://orlandoairports.net/

 

[rteetz]

MCO has taken back their closure announcement and is scheduled to operate as normal for now.

https://twitter.com/wesh/status/905758807028064256

 

[lockedoutlogic]

MCO has taken back their closure announcement and is scheduled to operate as normal for now.

https://twitter.com/wesh/status/905758807028064256

I thought that was a tad premature...thr airlines are likely to cancel most of their flights voluntarily anyway...

...the lawyers fly the planes.

 

[jknezek]

Have lived through central Florida hurricanes...I can say that the most damaging/impacting storms are those that cross the coastline in close proximity to the I-4 corridor...notable those that feed off the gulf and move inland between fort Myers and Tampa...

This storm...while making it rain like hell...will have winds likely well below the really nasty levels if it moves straight up the peninsula as it seems to be suggesting right now.

Um... factually no. Having lived through more than a few of my own in 2003/2004 when I lived in South Florida, the facts show the most damaging hurricane was Andrew, which cut through from the East to the West. Regardless, direction was not as important as the fact that it was a Category 5 storm hitting a major population center. While Irma is projected to be a Cat 4 by the time it hits Florida, it's still a monster and will do significant damage even if it moves from South to North, and will do more damage the closer it hits to the major population centers of the southeast coast. It may do less damage to the Orlando area, but it will do a ton of damage all up and down the state.

 

[koala1966]

They have become more open to the possibility as time has moved on. But still that's a major revenue disruption so it's always a last resort.

Obviously revenue is a factor, but there is also the fact that you can't coop thousands of people up with nothing to do. People get rowdy when they are bored. That is why they started opening things up as fast as possible after Matthew last year, people got restless very fast. I'll just remind everyone that it is locals staffing your entertainment, and locals are dealing with sheltering friends and family that evacuated inland, managing scared pets and children, juggling schedules for school closures, and depending on the track possibly handling clean up, power outages, and blocked roadways. So nobody wants places to close but we all have to stay safe, tourists and locals alike.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Um... factually no. Having lived through more than a few of my own in 2003/2004 when I lived in South Florida, the facts show the most damaging hurricane was Andrew, which cut through from the East to the West. Regardless, direction was not as important as the fact that it was a Category 5 storm hitting a major population center. While Irma is projected to be a Cat 4 by the time it hits Florida, it's still a monster and will do significant damage even if it moves from South to North, and will do more damage the closer it hits to the major population centers of the southeast coast. It may do less damage to the Orlando area, but it will do a ton of damage all up and down the state.

CENTRAL Florida!!

I'm not talking about Andrew...I'm talking about the "roof rippers" that came from the gulf...such as Ivan and his band of misfits circa 2004...

But I'm getting old...so my memory is fuzzy.

The danger with the updated track of this one is it looks likely that the eye rips just off the coast and it rakes the Atlantic side all the way to the Carolinas...that would be unfortunate and looks somewhat likely.

The reality is that hurricanes are going to grow in strength as water temperatures rise...which they are...you know, that "hoax"

Definitely interesting to watch.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Obviously revenue is a factor, but there is also the fact that you can't coop thousands of people up with nothing to do. People get rowdy when they are bored. That is why they started opening things up as fast as possible after Matthew last year, people got restless very fast. I'll just remind everyone that it is locals staffing your entertainment, and locals are dealing with sheltering friends and family that evacuated inland, managing scared pets and children, juggling schedules for school closures, and depending on the track possibly handling clean up, power outages, and blocked roadways. So nobody wants places to close but we all have to stay safe, tourists and locals alike.

But that's exactly what they have to do...there's no "recreational" scenario for a hurricane. It is what it is.

It's also British season...so they can neither avoid it in advance nor are they willing to leave before it.

 

[circus4u]

Two major hurricane-predicting tools show Hurricane Irma heading toward Florida — but one forecast is worse than the other.

The Global Forecasting System, the main US tool, shows the center of Irma hitting along Florida's east coast. (You can see that in the picture at the top, on the right)

But the European system — run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — shows Irma hitting a little further to the west, severely impacting the whole state. (Check out that version on the lefthand side of the photo up top.)

Basically, the American system shows a bad hurricane. The European tool predicts a total catastrophe.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/07/us/hu...c1f68c260f4b@livefyre.com&hubRefSrc=permalink

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The European model has traditionally been more accurate...but not enough to be absolutely confident of its tracking.

There's going to be heavy coastal damage and mass flooding...at a minimum...at this point...it's just too big and too strong and too close for a major turn out to sea...

I think the USGS model...while better for south Florida...may he worse from a cost standpoint as it could cause serious cat 3/4 damage all the way to the outer banks...that's a $50 billion dollar tab...likely more.

And FEMA's account is due to go empty as of noon today...

Anyone want to complain about taxes now?

 

[andyw715]

Here is hoping that Pandora survives what Irma brings. I haven't been there in person yet, but it looks very fragile. Not sure how that landscaping can survive strong winds.

 

[jknezek]

The other problem is you simply won't be able to realistically get out soon. There aren't going to be enough full gas stations nor roads. I heard a 30 hour estimate for Miami to the top of I75 as of this a.m. Now I'd take that with a very large grain of salt, but regardless it will take significant time even barring accidents and it will be hard to carry enough gas to make it. Finding gas along the way close to the main roads is an increasingly sketchy proposition, especially the longer everyone sits in traffic and uses up more per mile. If they turn all lanes North on I75 and I95 that might help the flow, but it means the gasoline tankers and aid staging can't keep moving south.

There is simply no logistical way to evacuate a significant portion of FL, so if you didn't leave already, your odds, depending on starting point, are dropping quickly at getting out now. If you are in a camper at say, Fort Wilderness, you are probably borderline too late. Since there are no hotel rooms available, even here in Birmingham AL there are pretty much none available, and being in a camper of any form during a hurricane is a bad plan, I can't imagine what your options realistically are other than heading to a shelter in the next couple days.

 

[Redcon1]

Not sure if anyone has seen this, but here's a pretty cool radar graphic with the expected path:
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=23.4;-78.5;5&l=wind-900hpa&t=20170909/18

Miami looks like it's going to get clobbered between 4 and 6 am. Sunday morning.

 

[MKCP5]

Supposed to go down in about 9 days. Not sure what things will look like or be operating like after Irma has her way with WDW and all of Florida. Praying for all concerned <3

 

[LSUlakes]

Two major hurricane-predicting tools show Hurricane Irma heading toward Florida — but one forecast is worse than the other.

The Global Forecasting System, the main US tool, shows the center of Irma hitting along Florida's east coast. (You can see that in the picture at the top, on the right)

But the European system — run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — shows Irma hitting a little further to the west, severely impacting the whole state. (Check out that version on the lefthand side of the photo up top.)

Basically, the American system shows a bad hurricane. The European tool predicts a total catastrophe.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/07/us/hu...c1f68c260f4b@livefyre.com&hubRefSrc=permalink

The GFS is trash when compared to the EURO. Now forecasting wind speed is a whole different animal. It is extremely difficult to predict these beyond 72 hours. Some things this storm is dealing with that will weaken it, is its interaction with land taking place right now. (Which is evident by another decrease of wind speeds in the most recent update 175 mph) I think wind shear and dry air may also play a part in it weakening once it starts it turn north. The folks at the NHC are really good and I would pay attention to what they say. NHC

 

[tiggerfied]

Not sure if anyone has seen this, but here's a pretty cool radar graphic with the expected path:
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=23.4;-78.5;5&l=wind-900hpa&t=20170909/18

Miami looks like it's going to get clobbered between 4 and 6 am. Sunday morning.

That is a very cool website...thank you!

 

[tiggerfied]

I've never been in Orlando during a major hurricane but will be for this one. What kind of damage is likely to occur in Orlando if the current forecasting models prove correct? Because it's not on the coast, would it be more wind damage than flooding? So, like structural damage (roofs ripped off, downed power lines, etc.)? I'm guessing that power is likely to go, right?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I've never been in Orlando during a major hurricane but will be for this one. What kind of damage is likely to occur in Orlando if the current forecasting models prove correct? Because it's not on the coast, would it be more wind damage than flooding? So, like structural damage (roofs ripped off, downed power lines, etc.)? I'm guessing that power is likely to go, right?

Water is the true destructive power of a tropical cyclone...

Water moving at 1 mph has the destructive power of wind moving at 160 mph.

So central Florida is "lucky" to only deal with rain and not waterway surges.

What you will see if the storm doesn't substantially weaken is a lot of tree damage, infrastructure damage, and roofs ripped off"

...cause cheaply constructed Florida real estate is known to be "tough" and all.

 

[jkh36619]

The GFS is trash when compared to the EURO. Now forecasting wind speed is a whole different animal. It is extremely difficult to predict these beyond 72 hours. Some things this storm is dealing with that will weaken it, is its interaction with land taking place right now. (Which is evident by another decrease of wind speeds in the most recent update 175 mph) I think wind shear and dry air may also play a part in it weakening once it starts it turn north. The folks at the NHC are really good and I would pay attention to what they say. NHC

None of them are any good a predicting future intensity. Never have been. UKMET model has had a good run this year