The 11:00 PM EDT advisory is out. Gustav’s intensity appeared to have plateaued, and it’s expected to make landfall right around its current intensity — a borderline Category 2/3 hurricane — in the late morning or around noon, in the marshlands south of Houma. That city of 30,000, where The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore is stationed, will take the brunt of the storm. Significant deviation from this track now appears unlikely (though small, last-minute “wobbles” are always possible).
New Orleans will most likely dodge a bullet, avoiding catastrophic flooding, unless the levees perform worse than expected. This will not be the “mother of all storms.” The media should, at this point, be ramping down the hype. Twenty-four hours ago, the hype was justified, but now, anyone who is still treating Gustav like some sort of unprecedented apocalypse is just ignoring the data. Thanks to the storm’s totally unexpected post-Cuba weakening and failure to intensify significantly over the Loop Current, this will be a run-of-the-mill, low-end Cat. 3 event, at worst. There will be death and destruction, yes, but certainly not on a “storm of the century” scale.
Anyway… I’m about to go to bed. I’ll try to post an update early in the morning, but I have plans tomorrow and I may not be able to blog again until midday — at which point Gustav will probably be making, or will have just made, landfall in Louisiana.