Hurricane Dorian - SWA/Delta/AA/JB waivers available

[jackglick]

We fly out on Tuesday. Now they have Dorian making landfall in Florida on Monday. I don’t think we are going to make it in.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

We fly out on Tuesday. Now they have Dorian making landfall in Florida on Monday. I don’t think we are going to make it in.

Airlines are issue waivers through Mon. On Tuesday there is no telling where the plane for your flight as well as the flight crew will be located.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

We fly out on Tuesday. Now they have Dorian making landfall in Florida on Monday. I don’t think we are going to make it in.

When on Tuesday? We fly home late Tuesday night and I’m not worried yet. It’s Wednesday and they still don’t know when or where it will make landfall. Definitely keep an eye on it for the next couple days, but I wouldn’t change anything yet because you could be eliminating day 1 of your vacation for nothing.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

When on Tuesday? We fly home late Tuesday night and I’m not worried yet. It’s Wednesday and they still don’t know when or where it will make landfall. Definitely keep an eye on it for the next couple days, but I wouldn’t change anything yet because you could be eliminating day 1 of your vacation for nothing.

The weather channel map shows Dorian is suppose to hit Florida on Sun and Mon as a hurricane. That is why airlines are issued waivers now. On Tues there is no telling where planes will be located for Tue flights because of flights being cancelled and divert on Sun/Mon to other cities. . If you are worried about a Tue flight I would switch to a Wed flight now while there are still seats available. Better to looses one vacation day than to not be able get a seat on a Wed flight by waiting to make the flight changes. Remember there could be 100's of other people who need to change their flights so it best to do it while there are still seats available or risk not getting a seat till Thur and loosing 2 days of your vacation. Here is the map as of 5 a.m. this morning.

 

[e_yerger]

So we fly out of EWR on Friday afternoon, and fly back on Monday night.... liklihood of our flight getting cancelled monday?

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks for the update Shelly!

I am going to wait for the 11 AM information and then I think I will start another thread specific to this storm. This thread was created to discuss flight options, there is a ton of great info being exchanged, and I don't want to sidetrack the flight discussion with storm-specific info.

Just briefly, three major changes have occurred in this system over the last 2-3 days.

1. There has been a change in the weather pattern that steers the system, and that has greatly changed the path of the storm.
2. The path has moved to the right in a major way, and that path takes it away from mountainous areas which would weaken the storm. The result is that the anticipated strength of the storm at US landfall has increased from Tropical Storm with 70 mph winds to Category 2 Hurricane with 100 mph winds (just 10 mph below Cat 3).
3. The shift to the right also creates a longer journey to US landfall, and therefore a later arrival of both TS force winds (which cause airline repositioning) and the storm itself. That later arrival is a good/bad thing. The bad part is obvious -- greater strengthening over open water. The good part is a possibility (and only a possibility) that the steering patterns could change in a good way. I have seen some indication of that over the last 2-3 days, but I want to be cautious.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

Yes, I’m well aware of the current map. It impacts me too. But I’m not making decisions 6 days out when the latest models have it possibly going north towards Georgia or headed out to sea. I’m not deciding anything until after it clears PR and more models come out. I trust the airlines, who have TONS of hurricane experience to prep accordingly for as minimal disruption as possible.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Yes, I’m well aware of the current map. It impacts me too. But I’m not making decisions 6 days out when the latest models have it possibly going north towards Georgia or headed out to sea. I’m not deciding anything until after it clears PR and more models come out. I trust the airlines, who have TONS of hurricane experience to prep accordingly for as minimal disruption as possible.

Yes it shows the storm going toward GA but then it makes a sharp turn to the left and heads to FL Sun/Mom as it becomes a hurricane that I just saw a few minutes ago. My husband being a pilot know a lot about the weather what airlines do in this situation and we have already changed our flights since SWA issued waivers yesterday, that way we can secure a seat on a flight we want not what will be left over after everyone else has made changes.

 

[Mom2Stitch]

So as of now our early morning flight arriving on Saturday should be ok? Anyone think the storm arrives sooner than that?

 

[Cinderumbrella]

Yes it shows the storm going toward GA but then it makes a sharp turn to the left and heads to FL Sun/Mom as it becomes a hurricane that I just saw a few minutes ago. My husband being a pilot know a lot about the weather what airlines do in this situation and we have already changed our flights since SWA issued waivers yesterday, that way we can secure a seat on a flight we want not what will be left over after everyone else has made changes.

And 18 hours ago we thought it was coming on shore Saturday night into Sunday with Saturday flights being canceled. Now they think it’s coming Sunday night into Monday, and possibly more north. That’s my point. You just can’t predict what it’s going to do 6 days out. By all means do what is best for your particular situation but understand what’s best for you is not best for all.

 

[JimMIA]

So we fly out of EWR on Friday afternoon, and fly back on Monday night.... liklihood of our flight getting cancelled monday?

Nobody here can answer that for you because every airline is different...plus, we don't know yet where the storm will be on Monday. You need to stay in touch with the airline you are flying to see what they decide this weekend and what the options are if you have to make a change.

 

[Jnjtrio]

Okay we arrive Tuesday flying American, cross country from PDX. Not seeing any updates on AA.com for flight waivers yet for stateside airports. We get in around 5pm, yesterday I thought we would be okay. Now I am starting to worry.

 

[joviroxx]

If I have learned anything about hurricanes, its that they are unpredictable. The latest models have the storm off shore, pulling east. The possibility of completely missing Florida is still there, or just getting the outer bands, or not.

 

[joviroxx]

Okay we arrive Tuesday flying American, cross country from PDX. Not seeing any updates on AA.com for flight waivers yet for stateside airports. We get in around 5pm, yesterday I thought we would be okay. Now I am starting to worry.

I think its still way to early to be thinking about Tuesday. I wouldn't worry yet.

 

[joviroxx]

Yes it shows the storm going toward GA but then it makes a sharp turn to the left and heads to FL Sun/Mom as it becomes a hurricane that I just saw a few minutes ago. My husband being a pilot know a lot about the weather what airlines do in this situation and we have already changed our flights since SWA issued waivers yesterday, that way we can secure a seat on a flight we want not what will be left over after everyone else has made changes.

It ihas actually shifted a bit east. It had it coming in more closely , futher south and earlier in previous models.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

My daughter is booked to fly EWR to MCO on Tuesday with JetBlue. She has a flex ticket. Do you think it would be better to fly tomorrow? I know there are no guarantees but I would prefer to pay for a few extra days for her at WDW than have her stuck in EWR.

 

[MGMmjl]

Just an FYI... there is a thread on the Disney World Tips board where people are discussing some more aspects of Dorian, including model predictions and analysis. Some people may be interested in checking out that thread as well: https://www.disboards.com/threads/orlando-area-hurricane-this-weekend.3766910/

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

Just an FYI... there is a thread on the Disney World Tips board where people are discussing some more aspects of Dorian, including model predictions and analysis. Some people may be interested in checking out that thread as well: https://www.disboards.com/threads/orlando-area-hurricane-this-weekend.3766910/

Thank you.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

So we fly out of EWR on Friday afternoon, and fly back on Monday night.... liklihood of our flight getting cancelled monday?

Looks pretty high for a Monday cancelation as the storm is supposed to hit central Fl on Mon and will be a hurricane with 100 mph winds.

 

[TxTiggergal]

We're scheduled to fly into MCO on Thurs and return home on Wed. Of course it's still too early to predict what impacts Dorian could have on Orlando, but how difficult would it be to rent a car to drive home if we decide to cut the trip short and airlines have stopped flying? Thanks.