How Worried Should We Be?

[bavaria]

I don’t want to speak for all states as I have done very little research on any but my own (CA), but my understanding is AZ has cases and hospitalization up. I believe UT does as well. CA has cases up, but also testing for a relatively flat percent positive and hospitalizations are trending down.

I don’t know on WA, OR or NV.

I can’t remember if it was this thread or another one or even who recommended it (sorry for not giving credit!), but this link helps in looking around at different states
https://covidactnow.org/?s=43246

Great, thank you for that, much appreciated

 

[mom2rtk]

It was rhetorical - I knew you didn't. The early purposeful misinformation about masks was key and it clearly reaped a whirlwind. Better in my mind if legislation would have prohibited the sale of commercial/medical-grade PPE to the public than the misleading spin the WHO put on it's usefulness. I feel the same way now. Legislate mask use or don't.

Yes, exactly that. Because now I'm skeptical of everything they have to say.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Absolutely. I review data that focusses on these figures as testing varies so much. The media in some countries drives me crazy ie 'Death rates continue to climb!' when there were 1-2 daily deaths. Of course they will increase, until the zombie apocalypse. I tend to read a few non-sensational sites for clear data.

https://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/ar...ge-Streeck-kritisiert-deutschen-Lockdown.html
Apologies for this in German but so much heartening in that article. Some (translated) quotes below from a top German virologist who feels that the ban on events in early March which led to drop in cases may have been enough, and that a lockdown was not needed.



Slovakia is removing the mask requirement and enforced social distancing; Austria has removed the mask requirement; at least one state in Germany removed the mask requirement and enforced social distancing. In Berlin gatherings of 1,000 are possible and in Brandenburg (the state around Berlin) no limit on gathering size. And cases, and deaths, continue to drop.

The is wonderful news!

Do you have any information regarding which states in Germany have lifted the mask requirement? We have a trip booked for later in the year. Hopefully our travel plans won't be cancelled.

 

[godisney14]

Slovakia is removing the mask requirement and enforced social distancing; Austria has removed the mask requirement; at least one state in Germany removed the mask requirement and enforced social distancing. In Berlin gatherings of 1,000 are possible and in Brandenburg (the state around Berlin) no limit on gathering size. And cases, and deaths, continue to drop.

Arizona and Texas have data to share of how not requiring a mask is turning out in the US.

 

[godisney14]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270441326123704320

Here’s an interesting video clip from the recent Orange County, CA board meeting.

I don’t get what is there to protest about masks?
Why do certain populations just loathe masks? Is it to show a political affiliation? Is it a fashion faux pas? Is it not wanting to be inconvenienced? Is it un-American to wear one? Is it individualism?

BTW, the public health director for the county just resigned today due to constant death threats.
Because the people sitting at home and complaining about even the smallest matters know much more than the experts.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Arizona and Texas have data to share of how not requiring a mask is turning out in the US.

Only 11 states require masks. There is something more at play here and I would lend it to that these states didn't really do a lockdown - 2-3 weeks is minimal. And they didn't really ease back into anything.

I'm not personally against masks, but I don't think that's the reason their numbers are growing or all states who didn't have mask requirements would be as well.

 

[barkley]

eastern washington here. our numbers are higher than ever and climbing. yes, not nesc. hospitalized and increased testing is contributing to the numbers BUT what concerns me is the trend we are seeing among younger people-1/3rd of cases in my county are 20-30 year olds, 50% of cases in yakima are under the age of 40. health officials are attributing the spike to workplace transmissions b/c many of those diagnosed are in employment that has just recently reopened during our initial phase and the 'tracing' methodology calls for if one person gets diagnosed-test those they worked with. it's a good idea in theory but it doesn't account for all the individuals who have come into contact with what are subsequently found to be positive diagnosis so the true numbers could be much higher and unless an employee at a particular job experienced symptoms that caused them to seek testing they could be working with others/the public and spreading it to others that spread it to others which will ultimately impact higher risk individuals on a greater basis (we are now seeing some increases in adult family homes and the like we hadn't seen localy during total lock down).

i don't know the solution. state law says all workers (with very few exceptions) are now required to be masked but the powers that be are declining to name specific businesses that have diagnosed 'outbreaks' so if we go out and try to return to some semblance on normalcy we run the risk of exposure with no notification and risk exposing others (a real concern for those of us at risk or with higher risk household members who rely on us to do their shopping and errands) .

 

[TLSnell1981]

eastern washington here. our numbers are higher than ever and climbing. yes, not nesc. hospitalized and increased testing is contributing to the numbers BUT what concerns me is the trend we are seeing among younger people-1/3rd of cases in my county are 20-30 year olds, 50% of cases in yakima are under the age of 40. health officials are attributing the spike to workplace transmissions b/c many of those diagnosed are in employment that has just recently reopened during our initial phase and the 'tracing' methodology calls for if one person gets diagnosed-test those they worked with. it's a good idea in theory but it doesn't account for all the individuals who have come into contact with what are subsequently found to be positive diagnosis so the true numbers could be much higher and unless an employee at a particular job experienced symptoms that caused them to seek testing they could be working with others/the public and spreading it to others that spread it to others which will ultimately impact higher risk individuals on a greater basis (we are now seeing some increases in adult family homes and the like we hadn't seen localy during total lock down).

i don't know the solution. state law says all workers (with very few exceptions) are now required to be masked but the powers that be are declining to name specific businesses that have diagnosed 'outbreaks' so if we go out and try to return to some semblance on normalcy we run the risk of exposure with no notification and risk exposing others (a real concern for those of us at risk or with higher risk household members who rely on us to do their shopping and errands) .

You could come into contact with an infected person anywhere. Why would they need to identify a specific business or individual to the public? The business will be shut down and any necessary cleaning performed. Anyone one in close contact will be notified, quarantined and tested if the develop any symptoms. Although many states allow anybody to be tested...regardless.

 

[bavaria]

The is wonderful news!

Do you have any information regarding which states in Germany have lifted the mask requirement? We have a trip booked for later in the year. Hopefully our travel plans won't be cancelled.

Here you go, sorry you would have to use a translator.
https://www.merkur.de/politik/coron...ants-schulen-beschraenkungen-zr-13791499.html
Thuringia has stopped the mask requirement and as noted above other surrounding countries are starting to lift it as well.

However do note that Germany extended the travel warning to 160 non-EU/non-Schengen countries to end of August. Not sure how that would impact you.

 

[bavaria]

Arizona and Texas have data to share of how not requiring a mask is turning out in the US.

The DACH countries top the list of 'safest places to be during COVID19'. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnko...tries-in-the-world-for-covid-19/#10071a1768c5

It's not comparable how these countries handled things vs Arizona and Texas. What was considered a quarantine/lockdown/shelter in place in much of the US was so free compared to much of the rest of the world. There are many factors why these countries did well, including health care systems, early contact tracing, early mass testing, early detection and action, average age of those ill, etc but the lockdown measures were definitely not comparable. Now they are at a point of weeks of barely any deaths and can remove the mask requirements, reduce the physical distancing (which in Germany was never 2 metres, but rather 1,5 metres), and lift more restrictions.

The mask was just one measure added near the end vs a primary measure to control things.

 

[godisney14]

You could come into contact with an infected person anywhere. Why would they need to identify a specific business or individual to the public? The business will be shut down and any necessary cleaning performed. Anyone one in close contact will be notified, quarantined and tested if the develop any symptoms. Although many states allow anybody to be tested...regardless.

No one mentioned identifying an individual but you.
Sounds like you’re against an effective form of contact tracing.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Here you go, sorry you would have to use a translator.
https://www.merkur.de/politik/coron...ants-schulen-beschraenkungen-zr-13791499.html
Thuringia has stopped the mask requirement and as noted above other surrounding countries are starting to lift it as well.

However do note that Germany extended the travel warning to 160 non-EU/non-Schengen countries to end of August. Not sure how that would impact you.

We plan to travel In the late fall. Hopefully conditions will continue to improve and we will be able to travel.

Thanks!

 

[bavaria]

We plan to travel In the late fall. Hopefully conditions will continue to improve and we will be able to travel.

Fingers crossed and thumbs pressed that you and everyone can travel freely very soon without consequence!

 

[barkley]

You could come into contact with an infected person anywhere. Why would they need to identify a specific business or individual to the public? The business will be shut down and any necessary cleaning performed. Anyone one in close contact will be notified, quarantined and tested if the develop any symptoms. Although many states allow anybody to be tested...regardless.

how can a business or 'the powers that be' identify anyone in 'close contact'? our restaurants are not requiring customers to leave their names so they can trace staff who are found to have been positive (only testing is individual staff members who b/c they actively showed symptoms and voluntarily sought out testing that then triggers testing others). the only tracing mechanism is within a business (who worked what shifts) and we've seen one company with their entire operation shut down after it was discovered through one voluntary symptomatic employee who sought out testing that they had dozens and dozens of asymptomatic cases (that were shown to have caused more within their immediate families and who knows how many those people came into contact with).

we've got one drive through coffee place that is getting lots of public support because THEY chose to share that they had an active case-and what shifts that staff member worked so their customers can be alert and aware of potential exposure.

 

[disneychrista]

The reason they don’t ID the business isn’t because it could ID the individual who is positive. I get that. But I also think from a public safety stand point a general statement of “anyone who dined at Surf and Turf between June 1 - June 6 may have been exposed and should get tested” seems logical.

 

[TLSnell1981]

The reason they don’t ID the business isn’t because it could ID the individual who is positive. I get that. But I also think from a public safety stand point a general statement of “anyone who dined at Surf and Turf between June 1 - June 6 may have been exposed and should get tested” seems logical.

I don't believe a statement that general would suggest a need to even quarantine much less be tested.

 

[barkley]

I don't believe a statement that general would suggest a need to even quarantine much less be tested.

it would at least give them the choice to do so.

 

[TLSnell1981]

it would at least give them the choice to do so.

Close contact generally means..less than 6 feet and interact more than 15 minutes with the infected person. If you used such a general statement as a reasonable need...you would likely test 2-3 times a week and/or constantly quarantine.

 

[disneychrista]

Close contact generally means..less than 6 feet and interact more than 15 minutes with the infected person.

If I dined at a restaurant it is very likely I had enough contact with the person to warrant getting tested.

 

[Colleen27]

Their assessment of whether asymptomatic spread exists should be made whether or not it impacts whether people wear masks.

Unless their scientific opinions are more about manipulating people (in both good and bad ways) than about scientific facts.

And that's a big part of why both the WHO and the CDC have developed credibility problems - they're cherry picking the science based on political concerns. Like when they made that stupid, not-backed-by-science comment about how there "might not" be immunity to COVID, not because of any science showing there isn't but out of concern for the political/social/economic ramifications of the "immunity card" idea being floated at the time.

Don't get me wrong, I think they'd have had some credibility issues anyway simply because we're not a culture that accepts, much less embraces, changing positions, even if the change is a consequence of better information. But the filtering of messages through a political lens didn't help matters any.

This is from the Daily Beast - it’s a site that is confusing to link to. A lot of ads and click bait. I’m using this because the WaPo source is behind a paywall.

As some U.S. states are tentatively reopening after their first waves of the novel coronavirus, others are only just at the start. Fourteen states recorded their highest-ever seven-day average of new virus cases at the start of June, according to The Washington Post. The badly hit states are Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah—while Puerto Rico has also recorded its highest-ever weekly average. The virus now appears to be burning through rural areas, in contrast to the beginning of the U.S. outbreak, which saw cities hit hardest. As of Tuesday, the U.S. has reported over 1,960,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 111,000 people have died.

The scope of the pandemic deaths goes way beyond, “because we’re testing more.”

In some states yes, in some, no. There do appear to be a handful of states in serious trouble - AZ worst among them, but TX and UT are showing troubling trends as well. Those trends aren't best captured by case counts, though. FL and CA are both seeing high case counts but steady-to-falling percent positive and hospitalization numbers; that pattern is what would be expected with increased testing but level or declining spread. AZ and TX are seeing not only higher case counts but also rising percent positive and hospitalization indicators; that should be the flag for increased spread. We need the discernment to tell the difference if we're going to learn anything from the massive experiment being conducted by leaving reopening pace and process up to individual states.