How Worried Should We Be?

[DisneyJamieCA]

This is from the Daily Beast - it’s a site that is confusing to link to. A lot of ads and click bait. I’m using this because the WaPo source is behind a paywall.

As some U.S. states are tentatively reopening after their first waves of the novel coronavirus, others are only just at the start. Fourteen states recorded their highest-ever seven-day average of new virus cases at the start of June, according to The Washington Post. The badly hit states are Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah—while Puerto Rico has also recorded its highest-ever weekly average. The virus now appears to be burning through rural areas, in contrast to the beginning of the U.S. outbreak, which saw cities hit hardest. As of Tuesday, the U.S. has reported over 1,960,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 111,000 people have died.

The scope of the pandemic deaths goes way beyond, “because we’re testing more.”

Yes, except what these articles fail to mention is that CA is actually flat. CNN did it this morning. Fear mongering headline, first paragraph talks about CA’s numbers rising and then inbedded way down in the text is that “CA trends are holding steady”. Both CA and FL around 4% (4% FL, 4.3% CA), both well under the 5% from WHO. Even the WHO says both states are ok at maintaining the numbers.

And CA had one our lowest one day death totals this week, down to 24. Out of a population of 39.5 million, that isn’t terrible.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

News out of Arizona...



https://www.abc15.com/news/state/adhs-director-tells-hospitals-to-activate-emergency-plan

I’ve never claimed there aren’t states who are in trouble. AZ, UT and possibly TX. Ironically, the ones who really didn’t do a total shut down.

 

[VandVsmama]

And we can quit acting like 100% of the population stays 100% infected forever- because that’s what some seem to want to live by.

Exactly. It's the emotional argument of "You're going to kill Grandma!"

 

[Searc]

I wouldn’t call that a walk back, more a walk around and play on words. Very rare still equals does happen, which is essentially what this new article says. Nobody has claimed it doesn’t happen, but that it’s not as common, and therefore scary, as we once thought.

Of course there is still a lot to learn, that is the definition of novel. But I don’t think she was speaking incorrectly or exaggerated, just before they were ready, so have to tamper it down. But common sense would tell us that asymptomatic spread is not happening very much.

It’s hard to keep control on us if they let us know there is even the littlest bit of hope this isn’t as dangerous as they once believed.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the U.N. health agency’s technical lead on the virus pandemic, insisted Tuesday that she was referring only to a few studies, not a complete picture, in the comments she made Monday

Van Kerkhove said: “What I was referring to yesterday were very few studies, some two or three studies that have been published, that actually try to follow asymptomatic cases.”

“That’s a very small subset of studies,” she continued. “I used the phrase ‘very rare,’ and I think that that’s (a) misunderstanding to state that asymptomatic transmission globally is very rare. What I was referring to was a subset of studies

https://www.news8000.com/the-latest...ehBniI7EKOu6HaGpvXbb_Lp4U5VGAbWf8y4OQjyaaarbA

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

https://www.news8000.com/the-latest...ehBniI7EKOu6HaGpvXbb_Lp4U5VGAbWf8y4OQjyaaarbA

I do sincerely appreciate the dialogue, but I still don’t believe they’re correcting their stance as much as they’re trying to reign it back in. So unless they come out and straight out say “we were wrong, asymptomatic cases do cause a lot of spread” rewording the same statement doesn’t change anything for me.

I won’t tell anybody else what to believe, but my common sense tells me that the numbers would be grossly higher if asymptomatic spread was a huge transmission piece. I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, and there is definitely a difference in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic, but I don’t think it’s as bad as they want us to believe.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to get people to fall in line, rightfully so or not. So anytime a piece of info comes out that may threaten that, they have to pull back in. Mask compliance is already a hotly debated topic, much in thanks to the WHO’s ever changing guidelines - can you imagine what it would like if they said asymptomatic people didn’t really spread it. The problem is pre-symptomatic people still do.

 

[disneychrista]

and there is definitely a difference in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic,

Problem is some one who is not displaying symptoms could be either. Only time tells if they will develop symptoms or not.

Bottom line wear a mask in public.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Problem is some one who is not displaying symptoms could be either. Only time tells if they will develop symptoms or not.

Bottom line wear a mask in public.

And I agree with that. I’ve never once advocated against masks. But I do think it’s the reason WHO is trying to backtrack on this now.

 

[JaxDad]

And I agree with that. I’ve never once advocated against masks. But I do think it’s the reason WHO is trying to backtrack on this now.

Oh, Magic WHO Ball, is asymptomatic transmission possible and should we wear masks?

 

[Searc]

I do sincerely appreciate the dialogue, but I still don’t believe they’re correcting their stance as much as they’re trying to reign it back in. So unless they come out and straight out say “we were wrong, asymptomatic cases do cause a lot of spread” rewording the same statement doesn’t change anything for me.

I won’t tell anybody else what to believe, but my common sense tells me that the numbers would be grossly higher if asymptomatic spread was a huge transmission piece. I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, and there is definitely a difference in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic, but I don’t think it’s as bad as they want us to believe.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to get people to fall in line, rightfully so or not. So anytime a piece of info comes out that may threaten that, they have to pull back in. Mask compliance is already a hotly debated topic, much in thanks to the WHO’s ever changing guidelines - can you imagine what it would like if they said asymptomatic people didn’t really spread it. The problem is pre-symptomatic people still do.

The WHO isn't why mask compliance became a hotly debated topic.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

The WHO isn't why mask compliance became a hotly debated topic.

Sure it is. While I understand their reason for their initial statement, both theirs and the CDC’s change of course made people question the validity of it. As people began to believe both agencies were becoming more political, trust in them fell off the board. And when people don’t trust, they don’t comply.

There are two major things that went wrong with compliance. The first was using the term “flatten the curve” if that’s not what they really wanted. The minute we got there and have remained there, the more people have questioned the SIP. The second was the reversal on the masks. I understand how many are yelling about their personal freedoms, both of these come from a lack of trust in our leadership.

 

[bavaria]

Please help me to validate what I believe is true (but I have not investigated other than for WA, and I think one of you mentioned CA)
- cases are rising in the western states
- this is a factor of testing finally being increased in the US
- daily deaths are on a downward trend

Is that a generally true statement, and feel free to chime in with your state ie WA, OR, CA, NV, AZ. Thanks.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Oh, Magic WHO Ball, is asymptomatic transmission possible and should we wear masks?
View attachment 500013

Why do some recommend one meter social distancing vs two meters and/or seven vs fourteen day quarantine?

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Please help me to validate what I believe is true (but I have not investigated other than for WA, and I think one of you mentioned CA)
- cases are rising in the western states
- this is a factor of testing finally being increased in the US
- daily deaths are on a downward trend

Is that a generally true statement, and feel free to chime in with your state ie WA, OR, CA, NV, AZ. Thanks.

I don’t want to speak for all states as I have done very little research on any but my own (CA), but my understanding is AZ has cases and hospitalization up. I believe UT does as well. CA has cases up, but also testing for a relatively flat percent positive and hospitalizations are trending down.

I don’t know on WA, OR or NV.

I can’t remember if it was this thread or another one or even who recommended it (sorry for not giving credit!), but this link helps in looking around at different states
https://covidactnow.org/?s=43246

 

[Monykalyn]

It's certainly possible. But I ignore all stats about "new cases" unless it also contains the percentage positive change. And how are hospitalization and death rates doing? I'm not saying those states aren't having a spike. I'm just saying I need more data. Anyone posting just "new cases" isn't posting the entire story.

https://www.statnews.com/feature/coronavirus/covid-19-tracker/Shows testing rates as well as cases. Interesting how most “highest number of cases ever” tends to correlate with more testing. Now I also want to know how many were tested as result of contact tracing, symptomatic or “just because it’s free and available”.
https://rt.live/. Show the R-naught. Most states are relatively flat. Utah does look like its starting to climb. Interestingly Texas has remained alost the same with SIP and without.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.htmlA selection of hospitals that track covid hospitalizations. Are sure to change to “weekly” not “cumulative” display by or it looks bad. Switching to weekly it again shows Utah increasing. What’s interesting is Georgia had a slight bump with opening and declining ever since. Even though the “exparts” were 100% positive Georgia was going to turn into a death camp with early reopening. Georgia’s new cases and R0 are also decreasing...

these are just a few places to try to follow the whole picture
And good gravy- a rise in cases was EXPECTED with opening yet the media wanna proclaim it like the second pandemic is here RIGHT NOW. Notice how the dialogue stopped on how harmful the hard prolonged closure has been? If you haven’t suffered &/or died with Covid you just. Don’t. Count. And now we’ve got protests to shout this fact is even more true and has always been for POC.

 

[focusondisney]

Again, cases are rising. So is testing. FL percent positive is still only 4%

All of NY state is at 2%, with 50,000 tests done daily with the exception of the capital region which is at 1%. But Florida (4%) still has all of NY state travelers under quarantine order. Yea, that makes sense.

 

[ronandannette]

Their assessment of whether asymptomatic spread exists should be made whether or not it impacts whether people wear masks.

Unless their scientific opinions are more about manipulating people (in both good and bad ways) than about scientific facts.

Absolutely. It is very vexing to see the WHO again attempting to drive an outcome (mask use) by misleading people. Is there really a "good" way to manipulate people?

 

[mom2rtk]

Absolutely. It is very vexing to see the WHO again attempting to drive an outcome (mask use) by misleading people. Is there really a "good" way to manipulate people?

No, I actually don't believe there's a "good" way to manipulate people. I only mean that they might have had the seemingly "good" intention of trying to word their statement with the goal of not decreasing mask compliance. Sort of like early on when we were told masks didn't help. I believe we were manipulated then as well (to not rush out and buy all the masks needed for medical staff).

 

[ronandannette]

No, I actually don't believe there's a "good" way to manipulate people. I only mean that they might have had the seemingly "good" intention of trying to word their statement with the goal of not decreasing mask compliance. Sort of like early on when we were told masks didn't help. I believe we were manipulated then as well (to not rush out and buy all the masks needed for medical staff).

It was rhetorical - I knew you didn't. The early purposeful misinformation about masks was key and it clearly reaped a whirlwind. Better in my mind if legislation would have prohibited the sale of commercial/medical-grade PPE to the public than the misleading spin the WHO put on it's usefulness. I feel the same way now. Legislate mask use or don't.

 

[WillAustin]

I think there is a difference between a "spike" and an expected rise in cases as things open up. The media isn't helping when they talk about states having "record cases" or "record hospitalizations" without any perspective. Yesterday, Texas had 1935 total COVID-19 hospitalizations. To put that in perspective, it's 0.006565% of the state population. It was a "record" number of hospitalizations. Models still predict a basically flat curve into the future.

 

[bavaria]

Two data sets are more important than new cases - new hospital admissions and daily deaths.

Absolutely. I review data that focusses on these figures as testing varies so much. The media in some countries drives me crazy ie 'Death rates continue to climb!' when there were 1-2 daily deaths. Of course they will increase, until the zombie apocalypse. I tend to read a few non-sensational sites for clear data.

https://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/ar...ge-Streeck-kritisiert-deutschen-Lockdown.html
Apologies for this in German but so much heartening in that article. Some (translated) quotes below from a top German virologist who feels that the ban on events in early March which led to drop in cases may have been enough, and that a lockdown was not needed.

In the meantime, all experts have returned to the assessment that Covid-19 "should not be trivialized, but also should not be dramatized".

"I still do not believe that we will have had more deaths in Germany at the end of the year than in other years," said the doctor, pointing to the average age of the pandemic deaths of 81, which was "above average life expectancy".

"No different from the rest of the world," Streeck also expected the wave to flatten out in the USA. “Things went so fast there, among other things, because Americans continue to work with cough and runny nose. There is no form of sick leave there like in Germany, ”

After surviving Covid-19 infection, the virologist assumes immunity for up to two years. Literature evaluations of corona viruses at the Institute of Virology at the University of Bonn, which he heads, would suggest this conclusion. Various studies also pointed in this direction.

Slovakia is removing the mask requirement and enforced social distancing; Austria has removed the mask requirement; at least one state in Germany removed the mask requirement and enforced social distancing. In Berlin gatherings of 1,000 are possible and in Brandenburg (the state around Berlin) no limit on gathering size. And cases, and deaths, continue to drop.