How to price resale with no current year points

[TheDailyMoo]

Throwing some lowball offers at resale and the only ones getting close are those with no current year points. Looking back at ROFR list I'm seeing some double point contracts that are going for not too much more pp than my bid price. How are these contracts valued by this board? What is the worst case scenario renting those points if paying more for current year points at a higher pp?

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I just did the same on a completely stripped contract and after being rejected reached out the the DIS community for what they thought about my offer. The responses are in the Rejected Offers Thread from the other day.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/rejected-offers-thread.3922565/page-9

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I just did the same on a completely stripped contract and after being rejected reached out the the DIS community for what they thought about my offer. The responses are in the Rejected Offers Thread from the other day.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/rejected-offers-thread.3922565/page-9

So based on what @Sandisw said each year missing is valued at $3 a point which would mean bidding on a contract that doesn't have 2023 points should be $3 less pp offer? So just to make numbers easy...2 contracts say SSR for 100 points each:
1st one has 2023 points
2nd one starts 2024

2nd contract would be apples to apples offering 3 pp less?

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

So based on what @Sandisw said each year missing is valued at $3 a point which would mean bidding on a contract that doesn't have 2023 points should be $3 less pp offer? So just to make numbers easy...2 contracts say SSR for 100 points each:
1st one has 2023 points
2nd one starts 2024

2nd contract would be apples to apples offering 3 pp less?

Yes. that's Sandisw's take on it. I'm more in the camp where Robbie Cottam is: missing points are valued at the price I could rent them for.

 

[E2ME2]

Yes. that's Sandisw's take on it. I'm more in the camp where Robbie Cottam is: missing points are valued at the price I could rent them for.

When assuming they’re worth the rental $PP, you must also subtract that year’s MF PP.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

When assuming they’re worth the rental $PP, you must also subtract that year’s MF PP.

Yes, I did take that into account but thanks for clarifying it for OP.

 

[DarthDadMan]

Throwing some lowball offers at resale and the only ones getting close are those with no current year points. Looking back at ROFR list I'm seeing some double point contracts that are going for not too much more pp than my bid price. How are these contracts valued by this board? What is the worst case scenario renting those points if paying more for current year points at a higher pp?

I don’t think the numbers you’ll find here in the rofr thread reflect average market values. Everyone here has a DVC sickness, way to informed in the art of the resale purchase, and need help lol. That said, l, personally, had a set number I was willing to pay for a non-stripped CCV contract and stuck to that. Found a reasonably priced listing where we weren’t too far off price-wise, and offered my max number. I’m not offering 20 below asking price to anyone, no matter the resort. Nothing wrong with that, I’m just not wasting my and most sellers’ time. That’s CCV though, a much smaller market than some, less flexibility in negotiating. SSR, OKW, and maybe AKV sellers are going to be a little more lenient given the amount of contracts on the market, so I imagine you can get away with more lowball offers. When I sold my AKV share, I was just hopeful to be seen in the market. You just may have to be a little more patient before you come across a willing seller. Now re-reading your topic header, I don't think this answer's your question in the slightest lol. My apologies.

 

[Sandisw]

So based on what @Sandisw said each year missing is valued at $3 a point which would mean bidding on a contract that doesn't have 2023 points should be $3 less pp offer? So just to make numbers easy...2 contracts say SSR for 100 points each:
1st one has 2023 points
2nd one starts 2024

2nd contract would be apples to apples offering 3 pp less?

To clarify, that is how I figure the value in broad terms, but doesn’t mean I would not offer less than that. It would depend on the contract itself and asking price. I just don’t use the rental price

In the example that was shared, the price was $90 with two years of points gone…i said $70 would have been a fair price…meaning, ultimately, I was still going way low. But, taking a $40 reduction for the loss of two years of points, when only wanting to pay $50/point when you were still getting 29 years of points seemed out of whack

Putting it another way, from a sellers perspective, why should they not use the rental prices as well to find the sweet spot price a contract?

That’s why I don’t use it for missing points because ultimately, if the contract meets my needs, and I can get it for a price makes sense, then it’s a good deal.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

To clarify, that is how I figure the value in broad terms, but doesn’t mean I would not offer less than that. It would depend on the contract itself and asking price. I just don’t use the rental price

In the example that was shared, the price was $90 with two years of points gone…i said $70 would have been a fair price…meaning, ultimately, I was still going way low. But, taking a $40 reduction for the loss of two years of points, when only wanting to pay $50/point when you were still getting 29 years of points seemed out of whack

Putting it another way, from a sellers perspective, why should they not use the rental prices as well to find the sweet spot price a contract?

That’s why I don’t use it for missing points because ultimately, if the contract meets my needs, and I can get it for a price makes sense, then it’s a good deal.

What in your experience is worst case scenario price wise when renting points.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Throwing some lowball offers at resale and the only ones getting close are those with no current year points. Looking back at ROFR list I'm seeing some double point contracts that are going for not too much more pp than my bid price. How are these contracts valued by this board? What is the worst case scenario renting those points if paying more for current year points at a higher pp?

~$7-$10 for current year points since you won’t owe dues on them if they’re gone but you will if they’re there.

$16 for next year’s points, at least. Stripped contracts deprive you of the contract’s most valuable year in terms of savings.

$12-$14 for last year’s points. Harder to rent, harder to use, but they don’t customarily come with dues to be paid!

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

To clarify, that is how I figure the value in broad terms, but doesn’t mean I would not offer less than that. It would depend on the contract itself and asking price. I just don’t use the rental price

In the example that was shared, the price was $90 with two years of points gone…i said $70 would have been a fair price…meaning, ultimately, I was still going way low. But, taking a $40 reduction for the loss of two years of points, when only wanting to pay $50/point when you were still getting 29 years of points seemed out of whack

Putting it another way, from a sellers perspective, why should they not use the rental prices as well to find the sweet spot price a contract?

That’s why I don’t use it for missing points because ultimately, if the contract meets my needs, and I can get it for a price makes sense, then it’s a good deal.

I understand that you don't price a contract based on potential rental income but just to clarify, I was losing 3 years worth of points - banked (2022), current (2023) and future (2024) so that's how I came up with the $40 reduction off list price.

 

[Sandisw]

I understand that you don't price a contract based on potential rental income but just to clarify, I was losing 3 years worth of points - banked (2022), current (2023) and future (2024) so that's how I came up with the $40 reduction off list price.

Absolutely and everyone can do what they want. I just don’t feel that rental value for missing points make sense when you compare it to what you are getting…confused about the banked points or was it a contract still in 2022 UY? Even then, most of those UY's are over so I personally wouldn't expect points to be there....

It's just when I looked at resale I figured the cost per point that I am getting and took it from there. As a seller, I did the same.

Wanted to explain more of how I came with the $3/point…if you add the MFs back since seller would be paying...technically it’s valuing around $10...which is how I would have valued it at $70 as a great deal....

IMO, when one uses a rental rental rate, it is almost like considering it’s a 5 to 10 year contract and not 30. Just another way to look at things....

 

[jason423]

My own opinion is to just avoid those contract entirely. Often they are the worst values because the discount on those contracts is not enough to make up for the lack of points up front in the contract. If I want to use those points in 2023 and 2024 and have no access to them I have to go out and pay in the ballpark of $20/point to rent points to take a vacation. So at that point my all in cost is whatever the listed price is plus $20xnumber of points minus the dues that I am saving.

Using SSR as an example the average price at DVCresalemarket.com last month was $115. That would put the price for a 150 pt contract at $17,250. If I have to rent the points myself for the next two years I would be spending $6,000 on rentals while saving about $2,350 on dues (assuming that we are at a point of the year where 2023 dues are still paid by the buyer). my all in cost would be around $21,000 or $139/pt. So the price should be at least $24/pt less than the average sales price just to make it fair.

If I do not need the points my equation might be little different and instead looking at what I lost by not renting the points out and different again if I was someone who just wanted access to points in the future at a bit of a discount.

As someone who generally wants to use points that makes these contracts a tougher deal because I can see given the way the market fluctuates with these specific contracts that I wouldnt be happy as a buyer with the asking price nor happy a a seller with the bid price I received since I dont really have any need to sell right away either.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

My own opinion is to just avoid those contract entirely. Often they are the worst values because the discount on those contracts is not enough to make up for the lack of points up front in the contract. If I want to use those points in 2023 and 2024 and have no access to them I have to go out and pay in the ballpark of $20/point to rent points to take a vacation. So at that point my all in cost is whatever the listed price is plus $20xnumber of points minus the dues that I am saving.

Using SSR as an example the average price at DVCresalemarket.com last month was $115. That would put the price for a 150 pt contract at $17,250. If I have to rent the points myself for the next two years I would be spending $6,000 on rentals while saving about $2,350 on dues (assuming that we are at a point of the year where 2023 dues are still paid by the buyer). my all in cost would be around $21,000 or $139/pt. So the price should be at least $24/pt less than the average sales price just to make it fair.

If I do not need the points my equation might be little different and instead looking at what I lost by not renting the points out and different again if I was someone who just wanted access to points in the future at a bit of a discount.

As someone who generally wants to use points that makes these contracts a tougher deal because I can see given the way the market fluctuates with these specific contracts that I wouldnt be happy as a buyer with the asking price nor happy a a seller with the bid price I received since I dont really have any need to sell right away either.

I am more similar to Jason. My kids are at peak Disney age, and I plan to blow all my banked or current year points in the next 12 months, so I would expect at least $30/pt discount between fully banked (with a long window left to use banked points) vs. totally stripped-- purely based on what renting the missing points will cost me (minus membership dues for current year).

I ended up buying 101 pts at BCV (passed ROFR but hasn't clossed) at $115/pt for a contract missing all it's 2023 points-- I would have actually preferred a contract with banked points at $140-145 points, but I didn't see anything available in that range for the amount and UY I wanted. I later saw someone get $145/pt loaded shortly after I went into ROFR and I was super jealous... on the other hand, I know BCV anywhere in the current price ranges is not the savviest financial investment, so at least I paid 20% less up front for the privilege of fulfilling my longtime dream of owning at BCV.

 

[Brian Noble]

My own opinion is to just avoid those contract entirely. Often they are the worst values because the discount on those contracts is not enough to make up for the lack of points up front in the contract

There's a lot to this. In general, I think the market over-values stripped contracts, but under-values loaded ones. You can try to offer a more "accurate" price based on the true underlying value, but you are likely to be rejected because someone else will pay more.

Doesn't mean you can't try, but expect the answer to be no.