How much should I add for inflation?

[birdmom]

We are planning a huge family reunion in 2018. Everyone is asking how much the trip is going to cost and obviously I can only see dates till 2017. Looking at current rates how much should I add for inflation when giving everyone a estimate for cost? Also what month does Disney typically release September sail dates?

 

[bumbershoot]

I cannot even imagine trying to figure out what they are going to charge for cruises happening 2 years from now. I wouldn't try.

 

[SetSail16]

I think September 2017 will be released some time this summer. I would get the sept. 2016 price for the rough timeframe and room style you are looking for and note it, then do the same search when the sept 2017 prices come out, and note the difference. Say it's 5%... Add that to the 2017 price for your *rough* estimate. That should give people at least a ballpark. And just stress to them that you won't know for SURE until about 18 mo out.

 

[bumbershoot]

That should give people at least a ballpark. And just stress to them that you won't know for SURE until about 18 mo out.

If that works for the OP's family. With DH's family that would NOT work. I could say "ballpark" and "estimate" and every other word that means that 18 times each, and when the time came if it's more than what I said, they would be VERY angry with me. They just don't hear anything beyond the most simple sentences.

With the family I have left that I travel with, they only want to know THE cost, they don't want an estimate at all.

You can see why I answered the way I did.

 

[Jennifer777]

We did a 7 night eastern caribbean in 2015. Priced out an eastern caribbean for the same week in 2017 and it was a lot more than 5% increase. If I was in your shoes I would look at the 2017 rates, add 20%, let them know it's an estimate and if it doesn't end up being that big of an increase, they will be happy with you. September is one of the cheaper months to sail so that should help. Not sure how many staterooms you need but you may want to call DCL and see if they have any group rates or travel planning help for large groups.

 

[squirk]

Bear in mind that there is a difference between "regular" inflation and "Disney" inflation. Disney traditionally increases prices far in excess of the Consumer Price Index (what most Americans are referring to when talking about "inflation" generally). Point being, when you hear about the U.S. having "low inflation" of 1.5%-2%, that number is irrelevant to Disney Parks & Resorts pricing.

I'd wait until the September 2017 rates come out, pick your desired itinerary and add 10% to it for 2018. 10% per year seems in line with general Disney P&R annual pricing increases overall.

Or if you don't want to wait, get a DCL subscription to TouringPlans.com and use their FareTracker tool. Once you see how much your desired cruise cost upon release in 2016, add 20% (10% per year x 2 years). If it's a little more than that, it's not going to be so much that it makes an affordable trip suddenly unaffordable. And like @Jennifer777 said, if it turns out to be a little bit less, that's a happy surprise.

My guess is that that is the closest you can get in terms of estimates until the actual September 2018 itineraries are released.

 

[birdmom]

Thanks for the info guys... and Bumbershoot I think you know my family lol