How much lower will resale prices go?

[utahkennedys]

I haven't been paying much attention until this week and now that I check a few resellers...I am shocked! How much lower do you think the resale prices can go? It it tempting to pick up some more OKW points at these prices that are passing ROFR!

 

[MFMont]

I haven't been paying much attention until this week and now that I check a few resellers...I am shocked! How much lower do you think the resale prices can go? It it tempting to pick up some more OKW points at these prices that are passing ROFR!

Now that I am thru ROFR, I hope they wont

 

[JimMIA]

I see an isolated contract here and there going for what I consider a very low price (and passing ROFR), but in general I don't see any big changes recently. And the ROFR thread, although it is the best guide we have, is only a very small slice of the actual market activity, so it's hard to know what to make of the prices shown there.

 

[Metsoskil]

I was just surfing through the Fidelity listings and saw a BWV 150 pt contract selling for $46 per point. About 30 points coming in 2011, all points coming after that.

I know Disney has not been exercising ROFR on much other than BCV, but that one would have to be ROFRed, wouldn't it?

Personally, I think prices will continue to plummet. I wouldn't mind picking up 50-75 BWV points, but I'm in no rush. I'm betting they'll be cheaper next year than now. Maybe that $46 is a sign of things to come.

 

[DVCconvert]

..... I'm betting they'll be cheaper next year than now. Maybe that $46 is a sign of things to come.

I'm not picking on you, but this comment struck me as it is the reverse of the sediment on home prices say circa 2006-7....and we've seen how the market has corrected that. Things of man and nature tend to seek an equilibrium, so I think we will see a leveling off on pricing. Either by pure market forces or by rofr.

 

[Metsoskil]

I'm not picking on you, but this comment struck me as it is the reverse of the sediment on home prices say circa 2006-7....and we've seen how the market has corrected that. Things of man and nature tend to seek an equilibrium, so I think we will see a leveling off on pricing. Either by pure market forces or by rofr.

No problem. I don't feel picked on.

Call me a pessimist, but I think there will be more people dumping contracts on the market in the upcoming years than buyers. I don't see a bright economic future in the US (or worldwide, for that matter). If Disney exercises ROFR to keep prices afloat, as an owner, I'm cool with that. If not, well, we'll see.

 

[JimC]

At some point prices will adjust for the declining remaining contract terms. And Disney will likely adjust it's use of ROFR accordingly. It could have already begun. Other market factors could be camouflaging those changes.

 

[XGrumpy1]

I think there was a large push to buy before the rules changed. Most buyers bought by now. There are probably fewer buyers now and I think prices will go down.

 

[krisnchris]

I have a contract in on the BWV contract mentioned I sure am hoping it goes through. Been waiting to buy into DVC for about a year now!!!

 

[Kelblum]

I have a contract in on the BWV contract mentioned I sure am hoping it goes through. Been waiting to buy into DVC for about a year now!!!

Good luck! I thought I got a good deal at $62pp. That is crazy low! Best of luck!

 

[krisnchris]

Thanks!

 

[n2mm]

I saw that BWV offer too and was shocked! I'm still on the fence about adding on, so I watch often.

 

[emilymad]

Any guesses on how long it will take for inventory to go back up? Closer to the end of the year before maintenance payments are due? We are looking for a small 75-100 point contract and there seems to be nothing right now.

 

[TisBit]

You also have to keep in mind, some people will put their points up for sale for a very low price, knowing that they will probably get ROFR'd. Someone will put an offer in on these crazy low prices and usually Disney will pick it up, but either way the seller unloaded their contract quickly.

 

[jodifla]

Most of the prices look about the same to me on The Timeshare Store listings. There are always some low lying fruit.

 

[dismagiclover]

We just had our offer of $48 for 150 BWV points accepted! Has 50 '10 points, and all the other points going forward. I'm a bit worried about ROFR, but I'd say there are definitely sellers willing to deal. There have been several reports of BWV getting thru ROFR for $50 so I'm hopeful.

 

[psac]

That's a steal. But I've sold some concert tickets on Stub Hub, always just enough to cover what we paid plus their fees. Usually a case of friends not being able to make it, or we got better tix, etc. Not looking to make money, just sell. Normally they're WAY below "market", and so they sell REAL quick, like within one day. I'm sure this seller wanted or needed to get out, period. Hopefully just an anomaly (and good for you!), and not a sign of market conditions.

 

[n2mm]

We just had our offer of $48 for 150 BWV points accepted! Has 50 '10 points, and all the other points going forward. I'm a bit worried about ROFR, but I'd say there are definitely sellers willing to deal. There have been several reports of BWV getting thru ROFR for $50 so I'm hopeful.

That's great....keep us posted on the ROFR.

 

[DenLo]

I haven't been paying much attention until this week and now that I check a few resellers...I am shocked! How much lower do you think the resale prices can go? It it tempting to pick up some more OKW points at these prices that are passing ROFR!

I think the resale market really won't dramatically decline overnight, but decreases are inevitable as resorts age and the contract length becomes shorter and shorter. You can see it with OKW, resale contracts without the contract extension sell for a little less than contracts with the extension. Many resorts still are selling for a similar amounts to what they initially sold for except BLT (who'd pay over $100 per point for a resale contract ).

Here's Doc's records on DVC prices over the years: http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2532407

 

[snert]

Long time lurker, first post.

I too am wondering when resale prices will drop. It certainly doesn't make any sense for resale prices to go up, since they have a limited shelf life anyway, and Disney is opening up ever-newer and fresher properties, e.g. the new GF project. Having just spent a week at Kadani Village and toured BLT, VWL, and BWV, the properties definitely show their age after a while.

I have seen the chart created by Delaware Mike listing recent contracts that have gotten past the ROFR stage, but are there any data points on the prices that Disney does exercise its ROFR on? I'd like to see what prices have been low enough for the Mouse to jump on, and make my offer accordingly.

In our situation, we are looking at buying 150-180 points at BLT, and there are a number of listings in the low 90s, but I think some of these have been listed for a while. For example, ****'s site has 4 BLT listings, but none of her recent twitter tweets (past 30 days) announcing new listings are for BLT. The TSS has a whopping 40 BLT memberships for sale, including eleven at our sweet spot between 150 and 180 points.

Given the recent restrictions could only have decreased the value for resales after 3/21/11, I think its still very much a buyers market. Even the "low-end" listings of $92 for stripped seem too high versus just renting the points.