How low will Disney let Poly go?

[bookwormde]

I'd been logging IDs on my tracking (which is only DVC Resale Market which is by far the easiest site to scrape and log) and they are not adjusting what they show as the price on the site when it hits pending, unless just nothing has sold below posted price the last week or so.

View attachment 489724

Did you track intermediate reductions, I thinking maybe I missed them and that is why I was seeing a difference

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I'd been logging IDs on my tracking (which is only DVC Resale Market which is by far the easiest site to scrape and log) and they are not adjusting what they show as the price on the site when it hits pending, unless just nothing has sold below posted price the last week or so.

View attachment 489724

I've been wondering this. Have they always not adjusted their price listings on pending sales? I imagine this is to artificially make the accepted prices look higher than reality right now. The also have some pending sales that went through that I know of and loaded the points on a DVC Members account 2-3 weeks ago.

 

[CastAStone]

Did you track intermediate reductions, I thinking maybe I missed them and that is why I was seeing a difference

Among the contracts listed as pending or offer accepted today, just a few of them had price changes prior to selling, again, just from DVC resale market. I didn't capture any pending or offer accepteds before today:

 

[Jhoyer5150]

Infrequent poster here, but I've been following the price shift and I think we are in early innings of an overdue point drop. Some of the posters are counting on DIS to ROFR contracts to support secondary pricing. But that's only in Disney's interest if them can turn around and sell those prices in the primary market at whatever outlandish mark they have it at. So yes they would ROFR a Poly contract at $120 to sell at $220, but only if demand warrants it. With cash tight at DIS for the foreseeable future, they may not have the liquidity to worry about ROFR on anything save Riviera which they are actively selling. Don't count on ROFR to bail you out - especially now.

It does appear there is a phenomenon by which a resort has a bit of a lag 3-4 years post introduction as DVC people who bought have used it once or twice and may be done, and that is what Poly is also experiencing now. I've been tracking the DVC markets for a year now and have been amazed at how many contracts on Poly were always out there - this is even a year ago. Supply/demand suggests when supply overwhelms demand prices must inevitably fall. Copper Creek could experience a similar trajectory in the next year or two.

Lastly, 23mm people have filed for unemployment the past three weeks alone, so unemployment, at least in the short term, will skyrocket to upwards of 15+%. Recall in 2008-09 recession unemployment peaked at 10.4% in Jan 2009. So this is a far sharper correction, all at once, than anything we seen. Now yes, perhaps it could stabilize equally as quickly, but methinks some of those 23mm are DVC holders who no longer want to be saddled with a timeshare. Maybe they've already paid 2020 dues as well, so listings the next 6-12 months could be considerable. More supply will be coming online. And, though the subset of fans on these boards might falsely convey otherwise, the populace at large is likely to retreat from discretionary expenditure in the wake of this economic standstill, not open up the checkbooks. Prices need to fall a whole lot further to become truly compelling. Perhaps back to 2008-2009 levels or thereabouts.

 

[heynowirv]

Infrequent poster here, but I've been following the price shift and I think we are in early innings of an overdue point drop. Some of the posters are counting on DIS to ROFR contracts to support secondary pricing. But that's only in Disney's interest if them can turn around and sell those prices in the primary market at whatever outlandish mark they have it at. So yes they would ROFR a Poly contract at $120 to sell at $220, but only if demand warrants it. With cash tight at DIS for the foreseeable future, they may not have the liquidity to worry about ROFR on anything save Riviera which they are actively selling. Don't count on ROFR to bail you out - especially now.

It does appear there is a phenomenon by which a resort has a bit of a lag 3-4 years post introduction as DVC people who bought have used it once or twice and may be done, and that is what Poly is also experiencing now. I've been tracking the DVC markets for a year now and have been amazed at how many contracts on Poly were always out there - this is even a year ago. Supply/demand suggests when supply overwhelms demand prices must inevitably fall. Copper Creek could experience a similar trajectory in the next year or two.

Lastly, 23mm people have filed for unemployment the past three weeks alone, so unemployment, at least in the short term, will skyrocket to upwards of 15+%. Recall in 2008-09 recession unemployment peaked at 10.4% in Jan 2009. So this is a far sharper correction, all at once, than anything we seen. Now yes, perhaps it could stabilize equally as quickly, but methinks some of those 23mm are DVC holders who no longer want to be saddled with a timeshare. Maybe they've already paid 2020 dues as well, so listings the next 6-12 months could be considerable. More supply will be coming online. And, though the subset of fans on these boards might falsely convey otherwise, the populace at large is likely to retreat from discretionary expenditure in the wake of this economic standstill, not opening up the checkbooks. Prices need to fall a whole lot further to become truly compelling. Perhaps back to 2008-2009 levels or thereabouts.

I am likely to agree with you although I do believe that the rebound will come a little faster than 2008-9 .On the other hand it may not come back all the way as you said over 22 million have already been unemployed and if we see another spike in this beast(virus) as I no doubt believe will will if these Gov.'s open up for the public this week and next, it could take even longer.

 

[nagshead]

To go along with this https://www.dvcresalemarket.com says on their blog that PVB has overtaken SSR as most economical resort to purchase. 9.75 per point PVB ,9.83 SSR. My purchase last year looks better. Good sleep around points only having studios and bungalows not as restricting.

I wonder why Aulani isn’t more economical than PVB? We are crunching the numbers and some Aulani contracts going in the 80s it seems. With years left on contract it seems like a better deal. But I’m definitely not an expert at all on resale so I’m trying to learn more following the posts from you all here.

 

[CastAStone]

I wonder why Aulani isn’t more economical than PVB? We are crunching the numbers and some Aulani contracts going in the 80s it seems. With years left on contract it seems like a better deal. But I’m definitely not an expert at all on resale so I’m trying to learn more following the posts from you all here.

Dues. Although a subsidized Aulani contract would be the single best deal on the board if you could get it close to a typical Aulani price point.

Here’s the post:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/

 

[nagshead]

The subsidized ones don’t come up often right?

 

[CastAStone]

The subsidized ones don’t come up often right?

Correct. It’s a trivial percent of total contracts.

 

[Yinn]

The subsidized ones don’t come up often right?

When they do come on, they’re not priced at $80/pt either. They’re often $110-$135/pt, which puts PVB back into the conversation, especially since the subsidized dues is now only 50 cents less than PVB and the AUL contract ends 4 years earlier.

So then it becomes - where do you want to stay and go? If you’re in CA or travel to Hawaii a lot then Aulani is a very viable choice. If not, PVB (SSR too) becomes more attractive.

 

[Jelly563]

It's weird because every time I see some post purchasing AUL, it is ALWAYS subsidized.... I also read how fast studios book, and that everyone stretches their points.... but when the conversation is Poly, it is always about how they don't have 1BRs

 

[ToddlerMom311]

Yeesh I just entered into a 75 point contract for $145 pp (still waiting for Disney). I thought that was fair, but now I'm kinda kicking myself...

 

[Matty B13]

Yeesh I just entered into a 75 point contract for $145 pp (still waiting for Disney). I thought that was fair, but now I'm kinda kicking myself...

If you want to rescend your offer, your contract will state how many days you have to do it. It is usually 10 days.

 

[DaveNan]

Yeesh I just entered into a 75 point contract for $145 pp (still waiting for Disney). I thought that was fair, but now I'm kinda kicking myself...

Couple of points...
1. Like stocks and other real estate, never assume you will perfectly time the market when buying DVC. (Don't be too harsh on yourself)
2. Even in the downturn, smaller contracts will command a premium.
3. The overall savings/extra cost scale with the size of the contract. $5 per point on a 75 point contract is $375. Looking at the overall costs of 40+ years of vacations, that $375 is not worth beating yourself up over.
4. Historically $145pp for a small contract is very good and represents a very low "cost of ownership" compared to cash stays. Obviously others might do better, but if you always look at it as "I was excited to get these points at this price which represents a vacation cost of $10-12 per point", that doesn't change as others pay less.

 

[Matty B13]

2. Even in the downturn, smaller contracts will command a premium.
3. The overall savings/extra cost scale with the size of the contract. $5 per point on a 75 point contract is $375. Looking at the overall costs of 40+ years of vacations, that $375 is not worth beating yourself up over.

I'm not sure small contracts still command the premium that they use to, due to the new resale restrictions. If your only in the market for say 25 to 50 points, why not pay the direct price and then have 40-50 years of the ability to make reservations at all resorts, not just the original 14.

I'm debating this question right now, because we have contracts that can book at all resorts and only need about 30 to 50 more points in either contract to get to the amount we need for 2 bedrooms every other year. So for an extra $1000 or $2000 over the next 46 years (+/- $50/year) I can book anywhere. DVC made it a much more difficult decision on small contract with the resort restrictions.

 

[DisMomKY]

Just an FYI I had one broker just tell me: ROFR is going the same as 6 months ago, when I said I wanted to offer a certain price even if there was a chance it wouldn’t passed ROFR at the price I was offering. Welp I’m willing to take that risk

 

[ToddlerMom311]

Couple of points...
1. Like stocks and other real estate, never assume you will perfectly time the market when buying DVC. (Don't be too harsh on yourself)
2. Even in the downturn, smaller contracts will command a premium.
3. The overall savings/extra cost scale with the size of the contract. $5 per point on a 75 point contract is $375. Looking at the overall costs of 40+ years of vacations, that $375 is not worth beating yourself up over.
4. Historically $145pp for a small contract is very good and represents a very low "cost of ownership" compared to cash stays. Obviously others might do better, but if you always look at it as "I was excited to get these points at this price which represents a vacation cost of $10-12 per point", that doesn't change as others pay less.

Thank you! I don't think rescinding the contract with these considerations is really worth it. I very much appreciate this response! *sigh of relief*

I'm not sure small contracts still command the premium that they use to, due to the new resale restrictions. If your only in the market for say 25 to 50 points, why not pay the direct price and then have 40-50 years of the ability to make reservations at all resorts, not just the original 14.

I'm debating this question right now, because we have contracts that can book at all resorts and only need about 30 to 50 more points in either contract to get to the amount we need for 2 bedrooms every other year. So for an extra $1000 or $2000 over the next 46 years (+/- $50/year) I can book anywhere. DVC made it a much more difficult decision on small contract with the resort restrictions.

I was under the impression that the minimum for direct purchases was 100 points. Am I wrong? We are only looking for a studio once every 2 years, so I don't really want 100 points and definitely don't want to pay the price Disney requires.

 

[CastAStone]

Just an FYI I had one broker just tell me: ROFR is going the same as 6 months ago, when I said I wanted to offer a certain price even if there was a chance it wouldn’t passed ROFR at the price I was offering. Welp I’m willing to take that risk

We'll know more in a couple weeks when some of the brokers publish their monthly ROFR reports. The ones published at the beginning of this month match what your broker was telling you.

 

[Yinn]

I'm not sure small contracts still command the premium that they use to, due to the new resale restrictions. If your only in the market for say 25 to 50 points, why not pay the direct price and then have 40-50 years of the ability to make reservations at all resorts, not just the original 14.

I'm debating this question right now, because we have contracts that can book at all resorts and only need about 30 to 50 more points in either contract to get to the amount we need for 2 bedrooms every other year. So for an extra $1000 or $2000 over the next 46 years (+/- $50/year) I can book anywhere. DVC made it a much more difficult decision on small contract with the resort restrictions.

I think your situation is different in that you already have the ability to book there. A 25 point contract for someone who doesn't have the ability to use at future resorts would only be good for one night at most at Riviera or any future resorts. Even at 50 points, you're looking at a weekend stay at most. Plus you'd be halfway to the membership benefits. So you might as well go to the full 100 points; especially when considering that the 25 or 50 pt contract will hav roughly $700 in closing costs attached.

Again, for you it's different because you already have all of that and need the bit for get the rest of the week. Non-eligible points don't help you with that. But for everyone else..PVB prices = $235/pt. At 50 points, that's $11,750. vs resale market, that's 94 points @ $125/pt for the same cost.

I was under the impression that the minimum for direct purchases was 100 points. Am I wrong? We are only looking for a studio once every 2 years, so I don't really want 100 points and definitely don't want to pay the price Disney requires.

They'll tell you that, but you can buy a 25 point contract. 100 points is the current blue card membership minimum.

 

[DisMomKY]

We'll know more in a couple weeks when some of the brokers publish their monthly ROFR reports. The ones published at the beginning of this month match what your broker was telling you.

That’s basically what I told my husband. I said we will just have to wait to see next months but I know what I’m okay with paying and what I’m not and that’s fine. We had 2 we are selling just pass ROFR that I was shocked we got asking price on (118 per point AKL and 113 per point SSR). I think if we listed now we’d get much less