How low will Disney let Poly go?

[Sandisw]

How do you see what they are pending for? I can see pending but the price usually stays the same as when it was posted. I need to look somewhere else!

There is no way to know the agreed upon price.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

There is no way to know the agreed upon price.

Although at least one site sometimes lists some contracts as "offer accepted" rather than just "sale pending." That would at least indicate that they sold for less than the asking price, even though we don't know how much less.

If it's a 100 point contract, the buyer may have offered $1 less per point. So, maybe it sold for $15,400 instead of $15,500.

 

[lovethesun12]

I don't think you can see the pending sales for every site but I'm not sure. I see that contract on this site:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/
When you search the listings there's a drop down menu for "status" and you can check the ones with offers.

 

[Sandisw]

Although at least one site sometimes lists some contracts as "offer acccepted" rather than just "sale pending." That would at least indicate that they sold for less than the asking price, even though we don't know how much less.

If it's a 100 point contract, the buyer may have offered $1 less per point. So, maybe it sold for $15,400 instead of $15,500.

I would still think that is the same, just different ways of telling others a deal has been reached,

I know some brokers take back up offers, but I don’t think they will tell someone the deal accepted.

 

[lovethesun12]

Yes sorry I should have read the earlier responses over before I posted again. You wouldn't know an agreed upon price, but you are able to see a wider variety of listed prices. I just wanted to let you know that specific contract seemed to indicate there was a listing pretty close to your price range already

 

[nagshead]

We are watching for poly too. Put in offers on two larger contracts at $125 and neither seller accepted

 

[Yinn]

What’s your guess? I’m hoping to find a 120 point contract for $125 and get it to pass but I also can’t imagine disney letting poly go for under $130 pp for small contracts. Do you think DVD will start executing ROFR on Poly soon?

Speaking from experience. ROFR is probably not a concern at that price point. Mine passed as did several others at that point.

 

[CastAStone]

What’s your guess? I’m hoping to find a 120 point contract for $125 and get it to pass but I also can’t imagine disney letting poly go for under $130 pp for small contracts. Do you think DVD will start executing ROFR on Poly soon?

No

Until DVD direct sales restart the chances of ROFR are quite limited, there may be a level where DVD is willing to take points into inventory without a sale prospect.but I would be very surprised if they gave any thought of ROFRing Poly over $100 at this time

Also since DVD can subdivide larger contracts they do not consider small contracts as having the same premium as we do

This.

Prices have been falling meaningfully at PVB, OKW, VGF, and BWV. The general trend is down elsewhere as well. If I were DVD, they way I’d play this would be to not buy anything until I had a request for a sold out resort in hand, then buy what’s cheapest. Right now they’re not selling anything so I have trouble imagining them buying much.

 

[DisMomKY]

No

This.

Prices have been falling meaningfully at PVB, OKW, VGF, and BWV. The general trend is down elsewhere as well. If I were DVD, they way I’d play this would be to not buy anything until I had a request for a sold out resort in hand, then buy what’s cheapest. Right now they’re not selling anything so I have trouble imagining them buying much.

I’m watching very closely! We either “ need”115 points at VGF, 120 at Poly, or 100 at BWV.

 

[bookwormde]

There is no way to know the agreed upon price.

While I have not tracked the percentage that are adjusted when posted https://fidelityresales.com/disney-timeshares-listings appears to do it regularly when posted as pending

I have also seen https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ change the price when I see them on sale pending on occasion though for offer accepted I have not been able to confirm changes

All the other re-sellers do not appear to change the price when then change to sold

 

[DisMomKY]

T

While I have not tracked the percentage that are adjusted when posted https://fidelityresales.com/disney-timeshares-listings appears to do it regularly when posted as pending

I have also seen https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ change the price when I see them on sale pending on occasion though for offer accepted I have not been able to confirm changes

All the other re-sellers do not appear to change the price when then change to sold

thanks! We are gonna just start offering low and see what happens Worse that’ll happen is they will decline or Disney will ROFR

 

[lovethesun12]

FTR I think it might be the owner that decides how low poly goes.

 

[DisMomKY]

FTR I think it might be the owner that decides how low poly goes.

I hope they decide to let some go in the 120s. I just saw a article saying parks may not reopen til Jan so maybe I need to wait a little longer anyway. I want to know points I buy will be able to be used before expiring

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

T

thanks! We are gonna just start offering low and see what happens Worse that’ll happen is they will decline or Disney will ROFR

Please report back. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

 

[E2ME2]

While I have not tracked the percentage that are adjusted when posted https://fidelityresales.com/disney-timeshares-listings appears to do it regularly when posted as pending

I have also seen https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ change the price when I see them on sale pending on occasion though for offer accepted I have not been able to confirm changes

All the other re-sellers do not appear to change the price when then change to sold

bookwormde - you would have to comb through all of the ROFR & Closing time posts here on the disboards, to see what people have actually paid for their contracts.
Too bad there is not a website built to track this, or public data available, like there is for residential home sales.

 

[bookwormde]

bookwormde - you would have to comb through all of the ROFR & Closing time posts here on the disboards, to see what people have actually paid for their contracts.
Too bad there is not a website built to track this, or public data available, like there is for residential home sales.

agreed right now it is just anecdotal patchwork

I may log the contract ID from the 2 largest sites on my spreadsheet and add a field for pending price when I find for sure matches. That would allow me to determine an approximation of the level discounting when it happens

I did some ROFR matching last time I was in the market back in 2010

 

[DisMomKY]

Please report back. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

We offered 100 on a 150 pt contract, they came back at 110. No 2020 points so we declined. I’ll keep reporting

 

[CastAStone]

I hope they decide to let some go in the 120s. I just saw a article saying parks may not reopen til Jan so maybe I need to wait a little longer anyway. I want to know points I buy will be able to be used before expiring

I saw a Poly contract at 127 a couple weeks ago - it was there and gone within 2 days. I assume it sold, but I guess we'll see when that resale site publishes their monthly ROFR update.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

We offered 100 on a 150 pt contract, they came back at 110. No 2020 points so we declined. I’ll keep reporting

They were going to take $110 for poly? I'd jump at that!

 

[Yinn]

bookwormde - you would have to comb through all of the ROFR & Closing time posts here on the disboards, to see what people have actually paid for their contracts.
Too bad there is not a website built to track this, or public data available, like there is for residential home sales.

I went through about 3 years worth of the ROFR thread when I made offers on mine. There were only a handful of $125ish offers, all of which passed. There was no indication of execution.

My own passed on 9/25/2019 at $128/point. It was especially notable because it was a guaranteed week contract for Christmas & New Years week, which Disney charges 10% extra for.

There was a 225 contract that passed in Q4 2019 for $125/point but without the guaranteed week.
There was also a larger 450 point contract that passed at $120 in Q1 of this year.

The biggest hurdle for PVB isn't going to be ROFR, it'll be the owners as previously said. But I also expect demand for PVB to pick up starting the end of the year (comparatively with other DVCs, not necessarily year over year due to economics). We can debate about resort characteristics that keep it low (ie, lack of 1 BR) but the reality is that there are a lot of SSR buyers who buy it only for the point economics as sleep around points. PVB quietly dropped into the bottom 5 for cost of annual dues in 2020, 2c behind SSR making the difference negligible.

SSR sells direct for $160 and resales for $90-$110/point, ($50-70/pt savings) and expires in 2054.
PVB sells direct for $235 and resales for $120-$140, ($75-$115/pt savings) and expires in 2066.

Personal preferences aside, PVB is going to make it's case to value buyers soon. Based on CAGR buyers may be asking by the end of the year "Is it worth $10/point to get an extra 12 years and lower annual dues?"