How do I determine the best value??

[ziravan]

At the end of the day, DVC is a luxury purchase and the numbers are never going to make sense.

You're not buying a car, you're buying a convertible with bells and whistles. At the end of the day, you can't compare it's value like you would a Civic vs a Corolla.

The appeal of a convertible is as different as the owners.

That is why the most often quoted advice on this board is 'buy where you want to stay'.

Buying a convertible doesn't make financial sense, and it doesn't have to do so.

I can see running numbers to see if DVC is right for you. But IF IT IS, then put the numbers down and buy where you want to stay.

Paying $500 less for the black Trans Am when you wanted a Red Mustang not only doesn't make sense, it completely misses the point.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

The numbers never work out as a renter but you also never control your reservations and that introduces a level of worry that is a cost.

Also, whether using a broker or an individual owner, rentals are hard to change reservations once made.

I make so many reservation changes that its second nature to me. You can't do that being a serial renter. That's an intangible cost but a large one in my book.

You COULD buy a small contract and transfer in points every year, but that requires a lot of work as well.

The numbers might not work if you factor in being a serial renter, but then, in my book, DVC wouldn't work, either.

Great point, and that goes double at the VGF, which is my home.

 

[DisMamaPf]

Just to forewarn you. We bought 80 points direct in 2014 to use for F&W. We were torn between BCV and BWV and both were the same cost direct. Even though we prefer BCV to BWV we went with BWV in order to save points with standard view. I just, at 11 months out, booked for Oct 2016. Day of the 11 month window...minutes into the window...some days in standard view for a studio were missing as was boardwalk view. I had to take pool/garden view. Now I watched for a few weeks and 1BR villas were available for a bit, but now some of those day are also missing. 2BR villas were like the studios for some reason.

End of Sept all the way through to New Year's Eve is tough to book at BWV. Also, as already mentioned, VWL is tough to book for Xmas season (from Thanksgiving through NYE) if you don't own there. And BCV is tough to book from June through NYE if you don't own there (probably spring break too)...cause of the great pool and it's a small resort. I'd scrap your # crunching (it is pretty close anyway) and go for which resort you want to get the most that would be toughest to book if you didn't own there.

I'm seeing more and more that the numbers really don't make a huge difference. I did some more crazy numbercrunching last night and definitely determined that SSR is by far the best value per dollar, in that it would almost make more sense just to buy up 25% more points of SSR and take my chances each year with my 3 favorite. I'd like to be a tad optimistic that at least one of them would be available for a week...and I'd have extra points to cover the extra cost. But...that option is a gamble because I may be the unluckiest person on earth and never ever get one of those resorts at the seven-month window

 

[DisMamaPf]

Okay, let's try this.

The following chart is based on a 100 point purchase. The Poly cost per point (CPP) price of 165/pt is based on a direct purchase; the other CPP numbers are from a resale website that lists weighted average prices. Before I did this chart, I was basically ready to purchase at BCV or BWV, but I can't make that math make sense. Over the life of the remaining deed, BCV, BWV and Wilderness are actually more expensive than buying from Disney directly. I have to assume that the prices of those three resorts will fall significantly in the next few years ... or am I missing something? I'd love for someone to check me on these numbers or chime in with another way to look at the data.

LOOKING AT A 100-POINT BLOCK PURCHASE....

edited to add rental data at home resort ... and fix a few typos.

I like the changes you made! Especially how many stays you can look to get.

 

[lovin'fl]

I'm seeing more and more that the numbers really don't make a huge difference. I did some more crazy numbercrunching last night and definitely determined that SSR is by far the best value per dollar, in that it would almost make more sense just to buy up 25% more points of SSR and take my chances each year with my 3 favorite. I'd like to be a tad optimistic that at least one of them would be available for a week...and I'd have extra points to cover the extra cost. But...that option is a gamble because I may be the unluckiest person on earth and never ever get one of those resorts at the seven-month window

You can also waitlist. I've gotten things by waitlist or by stalking the availability tracker. And split stays can get you in a desired place for a few nights of your trip. SSR is the best deal going but after that, I'd say buy where you want to stay. We initially, in 2006, bought 200 at OKW because that's where we could get the most points for our money and DH was all about adding on at HHI because, again, we could get a nice number of points (125) for cheap. Adding on the 80 BWV direct, well that was a tough sell to DH but we do like F&W and walking into Epcot. Good luck with your purchase!

 

[DisMamaPf]

You can also waitlist. I've gotten things by waitlist or by stalking the availability tracker. And split stays can get you in a desired place for a few nights of your trip. SSR is the best deal going but after that, I'd say buy where you want to stay. We initially, in 2006, bought 200 at OKW because that's where we could get the most points for our money and DH was all about adding on at HHI because, again, we could get a nice number of points (125) for cheap. Adding on the 80 BWV direct, well that was a tough sell to DH but we do like F&W and walking into Epcot. Good luck with your purchase!

Why did you chose BWV direct over resale? Split stays...do you feel like these are a hassle? I worry that they would be for my family of 5...especially with baby gear, but I like the idea. Does the staff transfer stuff from one resort to the next?

 

[supersnoop]

In my opinion, the reason your numbers do not make sense is that they ignore the time value of money.

The simple calculation actually does take into account the time value of money. It assumes that comparable hotel rates and maintenance fees increase the same as your assumed rate of return. Historically, I think those factors have outpaced any expected rate of return, making the simple calculation more conservative.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Why did you chose BWV direct over resale? Split stays...do you feel like these are a hassle? I worry that they would be for my family of 5...especially with baby gear, but I like the idea. Does the staff transfer stuff from one resort to the next?

The direct prices were pushed very high in the past couple of years. They even had a special offer on BWV direct just 3 or so years ago. But smaller resales can be more difficult to find too so direct can be the best way for some.

We often do split stays and while not a huge hassle they still are a disruption. I would not do it if possible with young ones. Disney resorts will move your luggage and even food though which makes it easier. Your still without a room for a day and having to pack up and settle in again.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

The simple calculation actually does take into account the time value of money. It assumes that comparable hotel rates and maintenance fees increase the same as your assumed rate of return. Historically, I think those factors have outpaced any expected rate of return, making the simple calculation more conservative.

Yet the simple calculation leads us to believe that the Boardwalk is more expensive than Poly. My gut tells me that isn't so. If I have time today, I'll run the numbers - not so much to convince you, but for my own knowledge.

In the meantime, why don't we go in together** on a $20,000 contract on the DVC resort of your choosing. I'll pay 50% and you pay 50%. I'll take the first 20 years, and you can have the last 30 years. That is more than fair, under your assumptions. (Or if you choose a 27 year resort, I'll take the first 11 years, and you can have the remaining 16 years.)

**This is a thought experiment. I don't really want to do this.

 

[Madame]

Why did you chose BWV direct over resale? Split stays...do you feel like these are a hassle? I worry that they would be for my family of 5...especially with baby gear, but I like the idea. Does the staff transfer stuff from one resort to the next?

I know some people love them, but as a family of 5 I would try to avoid it especially with younger kids. We like to settle in & since Mom's the packer & organizer most of it would be on me - no thanks.

I also find it hard enough being roomless on arrival day if our room is not ready until later (especially coming from a cold weather climate - changing 3 kids & 2 adults into shorts & digging through carry-ons in the hotel lobby/airport washroom is not fun). I would not voluntarily do it more than once.

 

[supersnoop]

Yet the simple calculation leads us to believe that the Boardwalk is more expensive than Poly. My gut tells me that isn't so. If I have time today, I'll run the numbers - not so much to convince you, but for my own knowledge.

In the meantime, why don't we go in together** on a $20,000 contract on the DVC resort of your choosing. I'll pay 50% and you pay 50%. I'll take the first 20 years, and you can have the last 30 years. That is more than fair, under your assumptions. (Or if you choose a 27 year resort, I'll take the first 11 years, and you can have the remaining 16 years.)

**This is a thought experiment. I don't really want to do this.

Don't be an idiot. The simple calculation shows the relative value of each resort. It does not equally apportion the up front cost to each future year.

 

[crisi]

I'm seeing more and more that the numbers really don't make a huge difference. I did some more crazy numbercrunching last night and definitely determined that SSR is by far the best value per dollar, in that it would almost make more sense just to buy up 25% more points of SSR and take my chances each year with my 3 favorite. I'd like to be a tad optimistic that at least one of them would be available for a week...and I'd have extra points to cover the extra cost. But...that option is a gamble because I may be the unluckiest person on earth and never ever get one of those resorts at the seven-month window

When do you usually travel. Because that will make a big difference in whether your optimism is warranted. Between late September and mid-January, you aren't likely to find anything at your favorites other than a day here and there - however, for much of the rest of the year, if you aren't picky about which of the three, and don't mind SSR once in a while, you'll be happy - at least with current booking patterns.

Note that informed people do not spend the extra money on a contract if they aren't going to stay their regularly - as more people by resale and do their research, those rooms should become harder to get over time. There will always be some people who don't stay at their home resort even if they paid a lot of money for it. But there are a lot more people who bought SSR because it was the cheapest option and they were willing to take a chance.

 

[lovin'fl]

Why did you chose BWV direct over resale? Split stays...do you feel like these are a hassle? I worry that they would be for my family of 5...especially with baby gear, but I like the idea. Does the staff transfer stuff from one resort to the next?

We wanted to add 50-ish points on in our UY and trying to find that resale was going to be tedious. Also, it was a deal at the time $130pp and had a $7pp off incentive if we bought 50+ points so we ended up going with 80. With cheaper closing costs and getting fully loaded contract it wasn't much more expensive than buying resale.

I like split stays (makes it feel like multiple trips...and I book FPs and ADRs based on what resort we're at) but my DH and twin DDs-17 do not like splits. It can be a pain to not have a room from around 11am to 4pm on the switch day (and DVC seems to never have our room before 4pm on a split stay switch day). If you are go, go, go types it won't be bad...just leave luggage with bell services in the morning (they will transfer it to new resort...we usually have a car so we will throw our stuff in the car) and go off to have fun. But my family, since we go so often, spends more time in the resort/room so they can't stand being 'homeless' for a couple hours.

 

[DisMamaPf]

When do you usually travel. Because that will make a big difference in whether your optimism is warranted. Between late September and mid-January, you aren't likely to find anything at your favorites other than a day here and there - however, for much of the rest of the year, if you aren't picky about which of the three, and don't mind SSR once in a while, you'll be happy - at least with current booking patterns.

Note that informed people do not spend the extra money on a contract if they aren't going to stay their regularly - as more people by resale and do their research, those rooms should become harder to get over time. There will always be some people who don't stay at their home resort even if they paid a lot of money for it. But there are a lot more people who bought SSR because it was the cheapest option and they were willing to take a chance.

Right now we are bound by the kid's school year. When planning to go once a year, we decided on the week directly following thanksgiving. We have since decided that two weeks a year is a must, and will either do 2 consecutive weeks during Christmas break...or do one week during Spring Break and the other directly following Thanksgiving.

 

[gagirldawg95]

The simple calculation actually does take into account the time value of money. It assumes that comparable hotel rates and maintenance fees increase the same as your assumed rate of return. Historically, I think those factors have outpaced any expected rate of return, making the simple calculation more conservative.

I would argue that this calculation is really conservative, given my strong suspicion (not actually researched, but going from memory) that rack rates have increased at a rate far in excess of the MF increases. I also suspect this escalation disconnect will continue. Maintenance fees largely reflect controllable costs (although some are paid to Disney affiliates or inhouse departments), and they seem to have a better correlation to actual inflation. Rack rates, in contrast, reflect market forces - just how much Disney then believes the masses are willing to spend for the Deluxe accommodations.
From that perspective, buying DVC today also reflects locking in accommodations at a particular rate. And that's a nice hedge against inflation.

 

[disneynutz]

Buy where you love to stay and move on. Disney is a luxury vacation and everything costs. Who knows what tomorrow will bring, when you will vacation, which resort is your favorite, when you will sell.

Bill

 

[Lynne M]

Right now we are bound by the kid's school year. When planning to go once a year, we decided on the week directly following thanksgiving. We have since decided that two weeks a year is a must, and will either do 2 consecutive weeks during Christmas break...or do one week during Spring Break and the other directly following Thanksgiving.

You are going during exceptionally busy times of year. The time directly following Thanksgiving through the end of the year is the busiest booking season of the entire year for DVC stays. I wouldn't expect to be staying anywhere other than your home resort during those weeks, and you'll want to book the day your 11 month window opens. Members are camped out on the phone lines the minute they open.

Spring break is a little less busy, I've had decent luck booking at 7 months. But if you're looking for one of the smaller resorts, or a room type that's in short supply, you'll have trouble there, too.

Buy where you want to stay. Calculations of value are irrelevant if you're paying thousands of dollars and not getting the resort experience you want.

 

[pmaurer74]

You mentioned going at Christmas. WLV is known for booking up quickly even at 11 months. I just reserved two two bedroom units no problem but I saw that the resort was booking up for the first week already. I do not know how WLVII will affect this since there will be more rooms availability maybe at the 7 month mark between the two resorts? BWV I reserved at 7 month for summer for a studio no problem but was unable to get boardwalk view. Two weeks later my guests wanted to add two days and we had to wait list it and it did come though. I had no chance for BCV. Buy where you want to stay.

 

[crisi]

Buy where you want to stay. Calculations of value are irrelevant if you're paying thousands of dollars and not getting the resort experience you want.

Unless money is tight, in which case I'd argue that you should really consider whether ANY DVC purchase is appropriate. Owning carries risk. It is possible to save money with DVC, but it is my firm belief that for the vast majority of us, we end up giving the mouse more of our money, more effectively, over a longer period of time than we would without DVC. If value is really important, the best value is staying off site.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I'm agreeing more with those who poo-poo any talk of DVC as an investment, or even as something that will save you much money over simply paying cash for regular rooms whenever you happen to want to go to Disney. And there's almost certainly no GREAT benefit financially over renting points for whichever DVC resort you prefer. The yearly dues for our moderate amount of points is close to $2,000, which, let's face it, is close to the cost of a nice week-long domestic vacation all by itself.

I'm beginning to realize that my main reasons for owning a couple of DVC contracts are:
1. the ability to book villas (at least much more affordably than the cash-for-villas option)
2. the excuse it gives me to rope family and friends into vacations, and
3. to feel like part of the club. The last point may seem silly (and I'm sure is, to a financial planner), but we'll know each time our vacations end that we at least tentatively plan on being back, right on time, and the anticipation is worth probably half as much as the vacation. The sense of a greater belonging at a particular resort that you love is also meaningful.

I see people crunching numbers now and think they're missing something, frankly. Of course I think those paying the current resale prices for BCV and BWV are a bit nuts, since objectively those should be worth about half of what they were 23 years ago. But maybe the reason to buy into DVC is that you've got enough EXTRA money to do something that's simply fun rather than financially sensible.

As for it being an investment, comparatively...? If the average long-term annualized gain in a large index fund or ETF is 7% per year, with the power of compounding interest, I'd hate to have to cite for comparison what the 15,000 cost of an average DVC contract would become untouched in the stock market over 25 years...