How do I determine the best value??

[DisMamaPf]

Let me apologize up front for this novel of a post... My head is spinning with numbers and I would greatly appreciate some direction and perspective.

DH and I bought a weeks worth of AKL points direct, clearly we overpaid, but no sense in dwelling on the past. Moving forward, our plan is to own enough points to spend two weeks at WDW a year. We have school age children, so we intend to either do 2 consecutive weeks over Christmas break, or 1 week over spring break and the other at an off season time in November. The number of points needed to achieve this per year are almost identical (2 weeks over Christmas/ 2 weeks split between peak and off season). The idea is to bank/borrow and alternate the resort we stay at each year.

Now for the numbers. We want to buy approximately enough points for 1 week at another resort. We have 3 primary contenders...VBW, VBC, VWL. Each resort requires a different number of points for those specific time periods, and those points have a different cost...but some how, after looking at dozens of figures, it isn't clear if one is a better value over the other. They all have the same RTU period, and somehow all seem to fall within $500-$800/yr of each other when determining their week long value (when factoring the cost of the points, how man points I would actually be buying (annual points X the remaining life of the contract) and the dues per point). For example, it would cost roughly $5.9k a year for the AKL/VBC contracts, $5.1k for the AKL/VBW contracts and $5.6k for the AKL/VWL contracts. That doesn't really seem like a huge figure in the long run.

Anyone have some thoughts on this?? Should I really only focus on the dues since that is what will be owed for the duration of the RTU period (assuming we pay cash for the contract)? Did I WAY over complicate this??? I'm just trying to figure out if the value is really as similar as it seems to be cost wise.

 

[ldo]

if you want to stay near Christmas time and want VWL, you should buy there, as it is a small resort and hard to book at 7 mths at Christmas. Assuming everything is within the same price range, book where you could see yourself staying. Easter is not as hard to book, as people have different breaks. So, focus on where you would likely stay at Christmas, assuming you would go then at least 1/2 of the trips.

 

[DisMamaPf]

if you want to stay near Christmas time and want VWL, you should buy there, as it is a small resort and hard to book at 7 mths at Christmas. Assuming everything is within the same price range, book where you could see yourself staying. Easter is not as hard to book, as people have different breaks. So, focus on where you would likely stay at Christmas, assuming you would go then at least 1/2 of the trips.

Do you agree the "value" is similar enough...spanning only $800 at the most? Or is there a better way to determine value? If not, it would appear that this would need to be a decision made solely on preference ... which will be tough

 

[jsrowdon]

I am buy no means an expert but I just ran some number based off some feedback I got from another forum member in another thread just to see the value of each point. What I did was this.

Total Points in contract = Size of contract * years remaining on contract.
I found the average price per point that contracts at each resort were being sold at recently by using the last couple ROFR threads.
Average cost of contract = Size of contract * average price per point
Average cost of contract / Total points in contract

This left me with how much it is costing up front per point for all the points over the life of the contract, the results ranged from the low $2.00 to low $4.00 depending on resort.

Now that is just a pure value calculation and there are lot of other things to take into consideration such as how much value the 11 month booking window at certain resorts means to you and this does not factor in any maintenance fees so that adds complexity but to me it at least gave me a starting point on how the resorts compared to each other on an up front cost basis.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Some of the response changes depending on the room size you intend to book. If it's the easier 1BR vs a studio or even a 2BR.

The dues at those 3 resorts have hovered around similar amounts - trading spots a time or two for BCV and VWL but BWV has been the highest for awhile. Up front BCV is more and BWV and VWL are in similar ranges which is how they've tended to be for awhile too. Then the other factor is that BWV does have standard view for a lower points category which can cancel out the slightly higher dues if you're able to book them or want to book them. And BWV has another great view category - Boardwalk view. The other 2 resorts have single booking categories.

However, overall, those 3 resorts are going to be somewhere in ranges where the value at the moment aren't going to be that different and I'd go with the resort I felt I'd want to stay at more. It might also be possible to purchase at a lower cost resort with a longer expiration, such as SSR, and still be able to get into those resorts at the times you want to go. Again, somewhat dependent on the size villa you are looking at. But if only evaluating the 3 I'd say go with the one you would most like to stay at.

 

[DisMamaPf]

I am buy no means an expert but I just ran some number based off some feedback I got from another forum member in another thread just to see the value of each point. What I did was this.

Total Points in contract = Size of contract * years remaining on contract.
I found the average price per point that contracts at each resort were being sold at recently by using the last couple ROFR threads.
Average cost of contract = Size of contract * average price per point
Average cost of contract / Total points in contract

This left me with how much it is costing up front per point for all the points over the life of the contract, the results ranged from the low $2.00 to low $4.00 depending on resort.

Now that is just a pure value calculation and there are lot of other things to take into consideration such as how much value the 11 month booking window at certain resorts means to you and this does not factor in any maintenance fees so that adds complexity but to me it at least gave me a starting point on how the resorts compared to each other on an up front cost basis.

I will try this formula! Thank you

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I will try this formula! Thank you

Do you want a contract with the best value overall? Or just of the 3 resorts you mention?

 

[DisMamaPf]

Some of the response changes depending on the room size you intend to book. If it's the easier 1BR vs a studio or even a 2BR.

The dues at those 3 resorts have hovered around similar amounts - trading spots a time or two for BCV and VWL but BWV has been the highest for awhile. Up front BCV is more and BWV and VWL are in similar ranges which is how they've tended to be for awhile too. Then the other factor is that BWV does have standard view for a lower points category which can cancel out the slightly higher dues if you're able to book them or want to book them. And BWV has another great view category - Boardwalk view. The other 2 resorts have single booking categories.

However, overall, those 3 resorts are going to be somewhere in ranges where the value at the moment aren't going to be that different and I'd go with the resort I felt I'd want to stay at more. It might also be possible to purchase at a lower cost resort with a longer expiration, such as SSR, and still be able to get into those resorts at the times you want to go. Again, somewhat dependent on the size villa you are looking at. But if only evaluating the 3 I'd say go with the one you would most like to stay at.

We intend to stay at a 1Br each time, and take advantage of standard rooms where available.

 

[DisMamaPf]

Do you want a contract with the best value overall? Or just of the 3 resorts you mention?

Just the three mentioned. Those are our favorites

 

[supersnoop]

We intend to stay at a 1Br each time, and take advantage of standard rooms where available.

If you want to take advantage of the less expensive "standard" view category, your only option is BWV.

 

[DisMamaPf]

If you want to take advantage of the less expensive "standard" view category, your only option is BWV.

I already factored that into the points needed and the values I came up with. Even the annual dues seem to be similar - only about $200 difference per year from the most expensive to the cheapest

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

We intend to stay at a 1Br each time, and take advantage of standard rooms where available.

Then BWV will likely win the value battle by a small amount. But it's likely small enough that going with your resort preference won't cost all that much more. Really though, if you wanted to buy the resort for the most value you'd very likely be able to stay in a 1BR at either VWL or BWV during spring break and possibly even BCV. Your Christmas time though, if you didn't want AKV, you would likely have to waitlist for one of the others.

 

[DisMamaPf]

Then BWV will likely win the value battle by a small amount. But it's likely small enough that going with your resort preference won't cost all that much more. Really though, if you wanted to buy the resort for the most value you'd very likely be able to stay in a 1BR at either VWL or BWV during spring break and possibly even BCV. Your Christmas time though, if you didn't want AKV, you would likely have to waitlist for one of the others.

You think we would have to be have to wait-listed for a 1BR at all three over Christmas? Even with home advantage?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

You think we would have to be have to wait-listed for a 1BR at all three over Christmas? Even with home advantage?

No, I was referencing buying a better value resort like SSR which you could probably use to book one of the other three much of the time at 7 months for spring break. Then if you were happy at AKV for Christmas that would work. Otherwise owning one of the 3 you should be fine booking a 1 BR at Christmas. Since your discussing value I just thought I'd mention that.

 

[supersnoop]

The best "value" long-term is SSR, with BLT in second place (last I checked). One bedrooms are almost always available at seven months, so you shouldn't have much, if any, trouble booking anywhere at seven months with "cheaper" points.

PS: what's the Pf?

 

[DisMamaPf]

The best "value" long-term is SSR, with BLT in second place (last I checked). One bedrooms are almost always available at seven months, so you shouldn't have much, if any, trouble booking anywhere at seven months with "cheaper" points.

PS: what's the Pf?

Lack of availability at my favorite resorts @7 months during peek seasons is why i'm trying to select my next home resort based on a combination of value and preference. We would like to take a few spring break or Christmas trips and I think i would be disappointed if I was only able to select from whatever was left over. The Pf is the first two letters in my last name

 

[beagee]

I have a spreadsheet that I can share, but I can't upload images yet (need to get to 10 posts). I'll come back and share it with you later this evening. When looking at both the total points left on the life of the deed and membership fees, BCV is the most expensive resort at $10.43/point, and SSR the best value at $7.72/point (ie, for every 100 points you spend on a reservation this year, you'll be spending $271 more if BCV is your home resort vs. SSR)

 

[supersnoop]

Lack of availability at my favorite resorts @7 months during peek seasons is why i'm trying to select my next home resort based on a combination of value and preference. We would like to take a few spring break or Christmas trips and I think i would be disappointed if I was only able to select from whatever was left over. The Pf is the first two letters in my last name

Check out this thread: http://disboards.com/threads/predic...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/
There aren't many one bedrooms listed, but VWL and BCV are, and you can see what studios typically look like. One bedrooms are the last to book up, so they're almost always available at 7 months.

Pf is the first two letters of my city name, which is based on the surname of the founding family.

 

[crisi]

When talking about those resorts, the best value is to buy the resort that speaks to you. Spending a few hundred more on a contract or a little more on dues really isn't going to be as big a deal as if you like your home resort. If you like your home resort, extra dues at BWV are worth it because you get a Boardwalk View room once in a while. A higher purchase price at BCV is worth it because you love SAB. You love VWL theming and its proximity to the Magic Kingdom.

If you buy VWL because it works out to be slightly cheaper, but find the rooms dark and really would like to stay in the Epcot area over Food and Wine, it isn't a good value.

 

[beagee]

Okay, let's try this.

The following chart is based on a 100 point purchase. The Poly cost per point (CPP) price of 165/pt is based on a direct purchase; the other CPP numbers are from a resale website that lists weighted average prices. Before I did this chart, I was basically ready to purchase at BCV or BWV, but I can't make that math make sense. Over the life of the remaining deed, BCV, BWV and Wilderness are actually more expensive than buying from Disney directly. I have to assume that the prices of those three resorts will fall significantly in the next few years ... or am I missing something? I'd love for someone to check me on these numbers or chime in with another way to look at the data.

LOOKING AT A 100-POINT BLOCK PURCHASE....

edited to add rental data at home resort ... and fix a few typos.