I was able to switch into the BCV last year at 7 months for a 2BR for the Wednesday through Sunday nights of Columbus Day Weekend (and that is a tough one to get). As loing as you do it right as the 7 month window opens and consider doing day by day, you will probably be fine.
If only part of your stay is during Food & Wine, the rest must be during the week of Thanksgiving. That week is getting to be more and more popular.
So definitely call day by day and don't be afraid to waitlist for any day that you can't get on the first call. If you do that, you'll have done what you can and IMHO, you will get in.