How come DCL isn't selling out?

[auntlynne]

When is off season?

Anytime kids are in school

after Easter until the end of June and September.

Typically when schools are in, that’s off season. Although in the northeast they have some different school holidays outside of summer.

All the above.

In the spring, they drop after Easter and start rising again around Memorial Day. Early May is typically lower price, fewer guests, and very pleasant weather - with swimmable water at beaches if going to the Bahamas or Caribbean.

Hurricane months of September and October (with some increased vacations thanks to Fall Breaks in early October.)

The first week or two of November.

The 2 weeks after Thanksgiving.

The first week of January.

…You are more likely to see families with preschool children with their posse of parents and grandparents during these periods.

…One way to find shoulder season and lower prices is to use Find a Cruise on the Disney Cruise Line website. You can narrow down the search by port, ship, length of cruise or destination if you have preferences.

The results will be in the order of the itinerary with the lowest price cruise first. It doesn’t mean that all the sailing dates for that particular itinerary are the cheapest. Within that group of dates (listed in chronological order), you can see where the prices are higher or lower.

 

[momof2n2]

I was going to say Disney never lowers its prices (rack rates), but I googled and apparently Disney once lowered the rack rate on rooms to one of its budget hotels to say they met a particular price point. Never say never! But I think it's a fair statement to say Disney rarely lowers rack rates. But what they DO do is have promotions with certain amount off for specific groups, for specific properties, at specific times, and to some extent they do that for DCL (Military, and Canadians for example get discounts). I would love to see Disney lower its prices across the board, just not optimistic about it.



neither have I. I have only been on 4 so far, but each one was memorable for different reasons so I have three upcoming cruises for specific reasons, 1) locations, lookout cay for one, Alaska for another, and 2) new boats (to me), magic, wonder and treasure coming up. I can see the point where I am looking for something new and I might go outside of Disney then. Hey, I have been known to go to Universal too! Why not?

I mean the *GT rates. So many right now in my range. I can’t plan 18 months out. But I can be wooed by a *GT.
Otherwise I’ll stick with carnival for family cruises. Would like to try MSC.

 

[Lucien Franciosa]

I mean the *GT rates. So many right now in my range. I can’t plan 18 months out. But I can be wooed by a *GT.
Otherwise I’ll stick with carnival for family cruises. Would like to try MSC.

My apologies... let us know how it goes!

 

[DCLMP]

I mean the *GT rates. So many right now in my range. I can’t plan 18 months out. But I can be wooed by a *GT.
Otherwise I’ll stick with carnival for family cruises. Would like to try MSC.

I can't think 18 months out either mostly because the prices are too high for me at 18 months out. Every time I book something way ahead I end up changing my mind and cancelling.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Agreed, from a shareholder point of view, something very right.

What some people want to forget is that Disney as a business cares about (and should) profits. That's not a dirty word but part of our capitalistic system. And if Disney can sell (and one can't have it both ways, either its gotten much more expensive or its not) at higher prices 97% occupancy (and forget the myth of cast member discounts adds appreciably to that) versus sell at lower prices at 100%, well, that's a win for Disney. Higher profits with fewer resources.

This whole thread is full of anecdotes because people are torn between what they want, and what they see leading them to support some really strange positions with anecdotes. Anecdotes are fine when considering micro systems but this is a general discussion on a larger topic.

For example the anecdote that the cruises aren't selling out as fast as they used to... no one has presented actual numbers on this but it seems to be accepted as 100% fact (to me fact is provable and based on data that can be shared). And compared to.. when? are we talking when there were only two ships and the prices were lower as disney built their brand, or are we talking recently. Unclear. Bring back the good ole years is not a new thing and is often filled with conformational bias and rose colored glasses.

Presented as evidence to support this position (which even if true, so what?) is the number of cruises with cabins put on Guaranteed Rates (with all the limitations that include). But how big of a deal of this? From the Disney Cruise website, there are currently 19 cruises listed with Guaranteed Rates. During the same time frame Disney has 165 total cruises available for a booking. That doesn't include cruises already sold out (and here people debate what sold out means, for now let's accept it means you can't book that cruise). But how big of a 'problem' is 19/165? 12%. Those numbers change daily, but whether it's 12% or 15% or 9%, it's just not a majority of cruises. Not a big deal. I would argue people should want to see some cruises going on sale in this manner, gives the bargain hunters something to feel good about.

I think the answer to the question, 'if its true that Disney is not selling out as fast as in the past ' is 'because they are working on their price model to optimize profits, selling out fast means missed opportunity.'

But, hey, that doesn't match the narrative so...

Honestly, I don’t get why this topic is so contentious with you.

WDW and DL are now offering their strongest discounts since at least 2019. DVC sales are their slowest in years. Many late night evenings at WDW and DL aren’t complete sell outs as in years’ past, and the most popular events that do sell out are taking longer to do so.

Things are slowing down, and it’s apparent that applies to DCL too. But apparently, because you own a few shares of Disney stock and have taken four DCL cruises, you’re an expert and can definitely say that things aren’t what they seem. And all those Disney corporate employees who say that more cruises than ever are available at discounted rates are lying, because you’ve never met one on your (shopping) four cruises! Silly.

 

[DCLMP]

Honestly, I don’t get why this topic is so contentious with you.

WDW and DL are now offering their strongest discounts since at least 2019. DVC sales are their slowest in years. Many late night evenings at WDW and DL aren’t complete sell outs as in years’ past, and the most popular events that do sell out are taking longer to do so.

Things are slowing down, and it’s apparent that applies to DCL too. But apparently, because you own a few shares of Disney stock and have taken four DCL cruises, you’re an expert and can definitely say that things aren’t what they seem. And all those Disney corporate employees who say that more cruises than ever are available at discounted rates are lying, because you’ve never met one on your (shopping) four cruises! Silly.

Most ships sail full on any cruise line. Now how that got to full occupancy is hidden from the general public. Some people just refuse to believe that because they are not eligible.

There are still people on this forum that will get up at 4 am to book on opening day even though those days of needing to book on opening day are long gone. Excluding the discounts the public can't see you still have the GT 25-30% discounts on a number of sailings. If people want lower prices don't book early and Disney will be forced to discount even more.

I agree with you things are just starting to slow and are probably going to continue to get worse before they get better.

 

[Mommb]

Most people would agree there is evidence that:
(1) Disney cruise prices have gone up over the past few years,
(2) some Disney Cruise discounts (restricted fares and cast member discounts as mentioned in this thread) are coming out earlier than they used to, and
(3) many or most Disney cruise ships are sailing "full" with few or no upgrades available at the port.

It is likely that (2) is a direct cause of (3) and that ships fill up after discounts are available.

What's not obvious is whether the discounts are a sign of a problem or just a way of doing business to maximize occupancy while providing flexibility for people who want to book a specific room.

That is, we don't know (and people not involved with Disney's internal financial can't know) whether (2) means that Disney is not making as much profit on the cruises as they intended, and whether (1) is a cause of that problem if it is indeed a problem. I still think it's possible that because Disney is charging more for cruises, they are willing to offer discounts sooner because they have made their "target" profit on a sailing sooner and after that, they'd rather (and staff who rely on tips would rather) that the rooms are full even if it's at a lower cost.

If bookings are lower than Disney wants, Disney could lower fares on future cruises or provide more unrestricted discounts such as the "3rd and 4th passenger free for Disney+ subscribers" from last year or the "Kids sail free" that used to be offered periodically. That does not appear to be happening. The reduced deposit offer that they have been offering lately doesn't actually cut fares -- it just shifts payments a little later.

 

[DCLMP]

Most people would agree there is evidence that:
(1) Disney cruise prices have gone up over the past few years,
(2) some Disney Cruise discounts (restricted fares and cast member discounts as mentioned in this thread) are coming out earlier than they used to, and
(3) many or most Disney cruise ships are sailing "full" with few or no upgrades available at the port.

It is likely that (2) is a direct cause of (3) and that ships fill up after discounts are available.

What's not obvious is whether the discounts are a sign of a problem or just a way of doing business to maximize occupancy while providing flexibility for people who want to book a specific room.

That is, we don't know (and people not involved with Disney's internal financial can't know) whether (2) means that Disney is not making as much profit on the cruises as they intended, and whether (1) is a cause of that problem if it is indeed a problem. I still think it's possible that because Disney is charging more for cruises, they are willing to offer discounts sooner because they have made their "target" profit on a sailing sooner and after that, they'd rather (and staff who rely on tips would rather) that the rooms are full even if it's at a lower cost.

If bookings are lower than Disney wants, Disney could lower fares on future cruises or provide more unrestricted discounts such as the "3rd and 4th passenger free for Disney+ subscribers" from last year or the "Kids sail free" that used to be offered periodically. That does not appear to be happening. The reduced deposit offer that they have been offering lately doesn't actually cut fares -- it just shifts payments a little later.

You also have military, Florida rates, travel agent discounts and interline rates. It's not just cast members and GT rates. It's been this way for years and it's nothing new. I don't see it as a sign of a problem for DCL. As someone that's been sailing DCL 13 years and taken advantage of various discounts it's just business as usual.

Since I've started sailing DCL in 2010 the economy hasn't been that great for one reason or another. I don't think anyone is oblivious to what happened in 2008 and 2020 Now were in this stagflation cycle and DCL prices have become absurd for most of middle class Americans. I don't know what this means for the future. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2025 and beyond.

 

[o&smom]

Most ships sail full on any cruise line. Now how that got to full occupancy is hidden from the general public. Some people just refuse to believe that because they are not eligible.

There are still people on this forum that will get up at 4 am to book on opening day even though those days of needing to book on opening day are long gone. Excluding the discounts the public can't see you still have the GT 25-30% discounts on a number of sailings. If people want lower prices don't book early and Disney will be forced to discount even more.

I agree with you things are just starting to slow and are probably going to continue to get worse before they get better.

My husband forgot to book at 4 a.m. and by the time he remembered a few hours later it was already up hundreds of dollars.

 

[DCLMP]

My husband forgot to book at 4 a.m. and by the time he remembered a few hours later it was already up hundreds of dollars.

What cruise was that?

 

[o&smom]

What cruise was that?

2026 WBPC. That was on platinum day, too!

 

[Lucien Franciosa]

Honestly, I don’t get why this topic is so contentious with you.

WDW and DL are now offering their strongest discounts since at least 2019. DVC sales are their slowest in years. Many late night evenings at WDW and DL aren’t complete sell outs as in years’ past, and the most popular events that do sell out are taking longer to do so.

Things are slowing down, and it’s apparent that applies to DCL too. But apparently, because you own a few shares of Disney stock and have taken four DCL cruises, you’re an expert and can definitely say that things aren’t what they seem. And all those Disney corporate employees who say that more cruises than ever are available at discounted rates are lying, because you’ve never met one on your (shopping) four cruises! Silly.

wow. My apologies for confusing this with a friendly place to have a difference of opinion. You continue to make assumptions of me, I dont own any shares. And you continue to conflate issues and mix things that I have said with things I haven't. Whatever.

I never said Disney employees lie. Quite the contrary. I called you out for implying Disney is inflating their cruise occupancy rates because the numbers are skewed by Cast Members sailing on a 90% discount. That is not supported by any real data. I like data, not arm waiving. You have yet to support your position, but some some reason feel the need to keep insulting me. You do you, I am going to keep looking for data.

 

[DCLMP]

2026 WBPC. That was on platinum day, too!

That doesn't surprise me. People were yearning for that one. I think there was a whole thread on it. I've seen some new itinerary's that excite people in the past. The boring ones that do every week I wouldn't lose sleep over.

 

[clarker99]

Port Canaveral Data for June and July.

June: https://legistarweb-production.s3.a...98/REPORTS_FIN_STATISTICAL_June__08.21.24.pdf

July: https://legistarweb-production.s3.a...99/REPORTS_FIN_STATISTICAL_July__08.21.24.pdf

Wish Occupancy
June '24 96.8%
June '23 95.7%

July '24 97.6%
July '23 97.6%

Rolling 12 month period, 94.6%.

Fantasy Occupancy
June '24 92.6%
June '23 94.8%

July '24 94.1%
July '23 93.6%

Rolling 12 month period, 89.8%.

Overall Occupancy for DCL Cruises out of Port Canaveral
June '24 95.2%
June '23 95.4%

July '24 96.5%
July '23 96.2%

Rolling 12 month period, 93%.

 

[mcd2745]

My husband forgot to book at 4 a.m. and by the time he remembered a few hours later it was already up hundreds of dollars.

What cruise was that?

2026 WBPC. That was on platinum day, too!

That's another problem, particularly with cruises outside of the "standard" itineraries.

On opening day(s), many in the Pearl and Platinum crowd book these to secure a spot, causing the prices to rise quickly. But then many don't even put a deposit down by the end of the hold period (and then, others who do put deposits down cancel before PIF date). But the prices don't ever come back down as people let their holds expire or cancel.

 

[Cfabar1]

Looks like the cruises are priced too low….

Confirms to me that I am priced out of summer for the foreseeable future. I just can’t justify that something those months would cost me so much more than other months of the year.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

That's another problem, particularly with cruises outside of the "standard" itineraries.

On opening day(s), many in the Pearl and Platinum crowd book these to secure a spot, causing the prices to rise quickly. But then many don't even put a deposit down by the end of the hold period (and then, others who do put deposits down cancel before PIF date). But the prices don't ever come back down as people let their holds expire or cancel.

I blame DCL for creating this, like sharks in a feeding frenzy. They want it this way. Some people jump on the bandwagon to book just for the sake of booking something.
If they extended their dates more like the way American Airlines does, each day adding another future date to their calendar, people would book more gradually, without all the hype.

 

[DCLMP]

I blame DCL for creating this, like sharks in a feeding frenzy. They want it this way. Some people jump on the bandwagon to book just for the sake of booking something.
If they extended their dates more like the way American Airlines does, each day adding another future date to their calendar, people would book more gradually, without all the hype.

I don't see the feeding frenzy except on those rare popular cruises like a Panama cruise or some new itinerary. New itinerary's are non existent anymore.
You see the same thing at WDW some people have this burning desire to book at full price and then complain about discounts not coming. I think there probably is a percentage of people that just have to have something booked.
Even with airlines the best prices are 2-3 months out or random days when they have sales.

 

[auntlynne]

In my dream world, they would offer X pricing for a set amount of time, not for a set number of reservations or holds. Let everyone have the opportunity to book at opening prices. Then raise them if they feel they must.

I know it’s not a capitalist way of thinking. And it takes away one of the real loyalty perks of Castaway Club status: opening day pricing. That is truly the hidden benefit. It may be listed, but it doesn’t seem to get the same PR as Palo or early excursion booking. Instead, the benefit of early booking could be choice of cabin.

 

[TXDCLfan]

Just an observation...why aren't Disney cruises selling out anymore? There are still tons of availability on all of there summer sailings. I remember just a few years ago when DCL would sell out a year in advance. You used to have to call the day sailings opened to the public and be on hold for hours to get a cabin. Now they are cutting prices on sailings and trying to fill the ship with Florida residents and cast members. Is it due to the economy? Prices of the cruises? Other cruise lines seem to be selling out all the time.

Disney still is trying to get premium dollars and the other cruise lines have upped their game and kept their prices competitive price so families do not have to go broke for a family vacation.