Holy Resales Batman

[ExRIGuy]

I know this thread comes up from time to time, and someone always comes out with an "I still have the data from a year ago" response that shuts down the drama -- but there seem to be a ton of resales, for all resorts, versus the norm. Looks like it did at the beginning of our local housing crash -- the phase where folks had not budged too much on prices despite swelling inventory -- but those price reductions will come, if it follows suit.

Can't help but wonder about the combo of the huge loss of home equity, slowing economy, and the announcement/building of more DVC's than at any time ever (I'm guessing) -- i.e. SSR not quite sold out, AKV selling, KTR presumably about to be announced, Hawaii annouced, Disneyland announced . . . this could potentially be the beginning of a DVC misstep and some declining prices. Part of me feels Disney could care less about the value of our units but for the extent it hurts their new sales business.

 

[jade1]

I know this thread comes up from time to time, and someone always comes out with an "I still have the data from a year ago" response that shuts down the drama -- but there seem to be a ton of resales, for all resorts, versus the norm. .

Except BCV...only 7?

 

[BroganMc]

Part of me feels Disney could care less about the value of our units but for the extent it hurts their new sales business.

I don't think any timeshare company cares about maintaining the resale value of already sold timeshares. Disney's active ROFR is just their way of keeping competition down for their sales business.

As for the possibility of overbuilding in a down housing market, I suppose it's possible. Disney has been through this before last decade with its offsite ventures at HHI and VB. I presume this is why the KTR filings contained a disclaimer for Hawaii in the event they decide not to follow through with it.

Of course, I also think what we're see in the housing market is more a natural correction than the beginnings of a great depression. Housing prices were outrageously overpriced and building rates far outpacing reasonable demand. Or maybe that's just around me where a dozen or more housing developments sprung up each selling single family homes for over $1mil.

 

[loribell]

I counted them up. There are 244 properties listed with sales pending on 30 of them. Seems like a lot to me.

 

[Chuck S]

Part of me feels Disney could care less about the value of our units but for the extent it hurts their new sales business.

There is no reason for Disney/DVC (or any other timeshare company) to care about the "value" of your contract. For all timeshares the "value" is in the use of the points or unit, or in the resale price. The resale price ONLY affects you if you sell. Eventually, in 2042 or 2057, your "value" = 0.

The only reason DVC has a ROFR is to maintain their sale price for new buildings and resorts, it is not to maintain value for owners. In fact, the same is true when you buy a new car or buy basically anything else, once you own it, the seller has made their profit...there is no reason for them to be concerned.

 

[gk90]

I counted them up. There are 244 properties listed with sales pending on 30 of them. Seems like a lot to me.

According to the chart on this thread there were 192 resales in Oct 07 and 250 in Jan 08:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=1363572

 

[buzz5985]

When I bought my resale in 2002, there were a lot more contracts available with banked points, or at the very least, current use year points. I saw mostly stripped contracts listed.

 

[loribell]

According to the chart on this thread there were 192 resales in Oct 07 and 250 in Jan 08:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=1363572

Also wanted to point out that is just listings at the Timeshare Store. I don't know if the other lists checked the other sites as well.



Okay I just checked and that is just the TSS listngs as well.

 

[gtrist4life]

Just a couple points to consider regarding resales and the thread mentioned above that I post to.

1. As noted the table is just the listings on The Timeshare Store, not a complete representation of everything for sale, but given they are the largest re-seller of DVC, safe to say this is a good sampling.

2. The listings on the TSS are just the "offering" price, I don't track the ROFR thread (at least not until we get the add-on bug, hopefully next year ), but that should also be considered for anyone trying to draw conclusions.

3. The number of resales on the TSS page (240 plus) compared to the total of number of contracts (50,000 - I'm taking a conservative view that the 110K members number is made up of at least 2 owners on a contract) is very small. So while the economy and housing/credit issues may be a cause of the rise in listings, not too sure I'd expand that relationship.


Peace,
G4L

 

[macosx]

Can't help but wonder about the combo of the huge loss of home equity, slowing economy, and the announcement/building of more DVC's than at any time ever (I'm guessing) -- i.e. SSR not quite sold out, AKV selling, KTR presumably about to be announced, Hawaii annouced, Disneyland announced . . . this could potentially be the beginning of a DVC misstep and some declining prices. Part of me feels Disney could care less about the value of our units but for the extent it hurts their new sales business.

ROFR is a brilliant monitoring tool. Every resale is tracked by DVC, so they know exactly the increase in resales and the market price. As much as the economy is shaky and there may be a short term decline (more pronounced if a recession), the business case of DVC is still very viable and will recover. The only concern will be saturation, but I think it's a long way from there, and growth/membership is still growing exponentially, with clear sailing thru a few millions of members worldwide. With SSR nearly sold out, AKV being sold as it's being built, and similar with KTR, there's a chance that Disney World inventory will be gone in 3 years, leaving nothing new to sell there. I think Hawaii and Disneyland are both relatively small and can stand on their own, particularly since there's a major geographic market. I suspect the east coast owners of DVC far outnumber west coast. With Hawaii and Disneyland, I'd expect the opposite, so they're expanding their potential buyer pool. Many Asians buy in Hawaii, so there's futher extension.

 

[Jaaron2]

More resorts, more points = more resales.

Keep in mind with all the resales some of those are people who now currently own at one resort that may now want to buy into AKV, SSR etc. or those preparing for "dare I say" the "towers"