Thanks for your analysis! It wasn't exactly what I was doing, but still useful to see how to make other comparisons (and similar ballpark results). The king suite you used does only sleep 4 (so your 1-bedroom comparison was spot on) but the jr (though harder to get it seems) sleeps 6 (I'll have to try running it against a value AKV 2-bed and see how it plays out). Clearly, even the moderate suites are pricey though, so if you want to stay in 1- or 2-bedroom suites regularly, DVC (resale) seems to come out ahead.
I'm not sure how we're doing it differently and I made it more simple. Comparing a 2 BR AKV (287 pts) @$80 pp to 2 standard CBR rooms ($230 average per room, dis 20%), 4.5% earnings on the up front cost and inflation of 4% on dues and room costs; I get a crossover around 10 years. If you change any of the variables it'll change the numbers but not a lot. A studio compared to one room would be a little faster. You can use SSR standard or AKV value with less points and get a more favorable answer toward DVC. IMO, if it's 18-20 years, it's not reasonable to buy in.
Sorry, I'm still confused. By my calculations, comparing 2 standard hotel rooms to a 2 BR as best I can match them (info noted) for AKV is right at 10 years. The term would be around the same or less using the cabins because they are around the same price or cheaper than the 2 rooms I compared to. Obviously the exact season would have some effect but I tried to get a good solid representative number for each. Every time you change a variable the numbers change some but not that much unless you go to specialty rooms such as the suites at CSR or change view with the DVC resort or to a more costly resort in terms of total points. If I use $400 for a cabin before discount of 20%, I push it out to about 13 years before the crossover. Buying vs renting at $15 pp, I get 7 years for AKV. SSR doesn't change it much, AKV value does but is too specialized to count on. The only other thing I can think you might be doing is leaving out the 12% taxes and using just the number that comes up on the Disney page as the AVERAGE cost which isn't representative for the FW cabins it appears, Mousesavers includes taxes in their listings.
I used the same for FW cabins but used 4% for all inflation. I get about 12-13 years comparing to 287 points @ $80.
Partly, but I did find an error in one of my formulas as well. Using your costs and ignoring earnings, I get 26 years using 4% increases on dues and cash costs.
Very interesting analysis from all. It's been hinted at but I think it bears repeating that if you purchase DVC, more likely than not you will take more trips per year to Disney. Booking a hotel room costs money every time you do it, and that is a significant obstacle when planning a trip. Going to www.dvcmember.com and using your "free" (as in already paid for in both purchase price and dues in January) points to book a room is a much smaller barrier to entry. Along with this are accompanying travel costs, cost of food in excess of what it would cost to eat at home, souvenirs, extra experiences, etc. I did a very similar cost/benefit analysis when purchasing 6 years ago and while my numbers proved to be pretty accurate regarding the purchase vs. renting net cost over time, I did not account for the fact that we now take three trips a year instead of one. That's a good thing as we continue to love going to Disney, but I often don't see it accounted for in the analyses. Quite frankly I'm not even sure how you would do that, as you are getting something for the expenditure, and I don't think it changes the value proposition on the purchase analysis. But it definitely has an impact on cash flow and overall expenditures. If you are truly disciplined, you could take an opposite approach and instead of using those leftover points to book an extra trip you could rent them out and accelerate your timeline a bit. I mean, we're all that disciplined, right?
IMO one does need to understand the financial side but it's also about the value and usage as well. To a degree it's like buying a luxury car when you really only need transportation. A Disney vacation itself is a large cost. Personally I don't think people should be buying things they can't afford but then a lot of people go on vacations they can't afford. My goal is to get them to think about where they are and what they're doing, I think you're going that well. After that they have to make their own decisions.
IMO, most members do NOT save any money (no mater what the analyses say). We end up going more often, staying longer, choosing larger accommodations, and inviting family and friends. That's not a recipe for saving money and that is part of the genius of Disney.Very interesting analysis from all. It's been hinted at but I think it bears repeating that if you purchase DVC, more likely than not you will take more trips per year to Disney. .......(snip)........, I did not account for the fact that we now take three trips a year instead of one. ..........
IMO, most members do NOT save any money (no mater what the analyses say). We end up going more often, staying longer, choosing larger accommodations, and inviting family and friends. That's not a recipe for saving money and that is part of the genius of Disney.
Golden handcuffs are not a bad thing, one just needs to be able to afford them and one should consider the impact as part of the up front purchase evaluation.Ideally we should all purchase DVC and not change frequency of visits or room type when staying, and then the savings could be real. But who has that self control? Anyone? Anyone?
