Barack Does Not Understand Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran
By Larry Johnson
Absolutely pathetic. Rhetoric instead of understanding. His major address on Iraq today was a flop. It is bad enough that George Bush (and John McCain) has played politics with Iraq, touting the surge as the fix instead of admitting that a change in U.S. tactics on the ground achieved the progress we are witnessing in Iraq. McCain is hooking his fortunes to Petraeus, which appears to be a pretty good bet. But Barack demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding about the military and how they are being used.
He insists that we must get out of Iraq because our Army is sapped and our troops worn out. And it is true that our military has been tremendously weakened by the war in Iraq. But then what does he propose? Moving more troops and personnel to Afghanistan. Excuse me? If we must withdraw from Iraq in order to rest and refit our troops then how does it make sense to expand military operations in Afghanistan.
In fact, how do you rebuild an Army while sending it out on a new mission that holds the real risk of a new war with Pakistan? War with Pakistan? Thats right. When Obama insists that we will root out camps in the tribal areas of the Northwest Frontier Province aka FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas). No two ways about it. If we send troops into Pakistan that is an act of war.
Barack ignores some key realities in Iraq.The mission of U.S. soldiers and Marines in Iraq has changed dramatically without explaining the shift to the American people. For starters U.S. troops are no longer regularly conducting raids against suspected terrorist targets that involve entering the homes of Iraqi civilians and taking Iraqis into custody. A couple of years ago our guys were kicking in doors, rousting sleeping families, and hauling off guys we suspected of helping the insurgents. That helped fuel the insurgency because the Iraqis felt violated and wanted revenge. Worse, we put the men in prison with actual insurgents and provided a easy recruitment forum that helped feed the insurgency.
The decline in violence in Iraq was achieved after U.S. commanders paid attention to intelligence, which indicated that most of the insurgent violence was carried out by unemployed Iraqis who agreed to plant bombs for cash. We started paying tribal sheikhs who in turn are paying young men, who had spent their days planting bombs against our troops, a salary to protect their villages from foreign fighters. And guess what, the violence tapered off.
Most of the U.S. military effort in Iraq is focused on training and support of Iraqi troops. We also are continuing to go after foreign fighters with success but the troops carrying out that mission are spending three months a year in Iraq, not 15 months.
Iraq has been effectively ghettoizedi.e., Sunnis and Shias are living in separate enclaves, usually protected by Iraqi troops drawn from their area. Life in those areas is returning to a level of normalcy but sectarian violence and revenge killings continue. The key for the United States is to not be in the middle of the sectarian violence.
The issue is not so much one of pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq. They are being withdrawn regardless of the Presidents position because the mission itself has changed. What needs to be decided, and what Barack completely ignored, is what kind of relationship will we have with the Iraqi government going forward.
Will U.S. forces still be permitted to conduct unilateral operations against foreign fighter targets in Iraq? These are by and large Al Qaeda sympathizers and Sunni extremists. The Shia dominated government will likely approve such operations because it helps protect them and their people.
Are we willing to accept an Iraqi government dominated by leaders closely aligned with Iran? If we completely pull our troops out of Iraq we leave Iraq under the effective control of Iran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. I am not advocating a war with Iran. I think we can deal with the Iranian threat thru diplomatic means. But simply pulling U.S. troops out without any thought about the consequences for Iranian influence in the region is irresponsible.
Barack also is ignoring the reality in Afghanistan. It is not a Taliban war but a tribal war. The Pashtun tribe is one of the largest in the world. It stretches from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Any strategy to counter the Taliban must focus on dealing with the tribal leaders and exploiting differences that exist within that tribe. Threatening military action in Pakistan, as Barack did today, without a clear plan puts him in the same category of George Bush, who pursued military action without a clear objective or understanding of the logistics needed to sustain the effort.
Baracks speech today may have made sense in October 2002, but it is an inadequate, poorly thought out strategy for 2009 and ahead.