Have we reached the saturation point?

[rteetz]

I keep hearing statements like "the races aren't selling" -- I think this is premature:

1. They just recently changed how they deal with TA's -- far fewer inventory is going through them. Not sure that comparing selling rate pre and post-TA change is valid.
2. They just started selling races WAY EARLIER. Unclear how that might impact things going forward.

I think that we will only be able to tell after the races when we find how many registered/raced. Then we'll have some actual data.

I get that but by all accounts Dark side isn't selling well for this year. Sure it's only the second year and every race is different of course. Light side on the other hand was well liked by Disneyland folk.

 

[Keels]

TAs and charities are taking it in he shorts significantly for Dark Side.

I had one TA today offer to throw in a Dark Side bib for free if I bought Pixie Dust at the price they were offering, as long as I committed to a two-night stay at a WDW hotel for Dark Side as well.

If I can get a room at Caribbean Beach with the gift card for construction intrusion, I might just take the TA up on it.

If you want to run Dark Side, numerous charities are waiving fundraising minimums. These entities have to pay for bibs up-front, so they eat the cost when they're stuck with 50-plus bibs for a weekend with a lack of interest.

 

[cavepig]

By what accounts is Darkside selling so poorly compared to other not sold out races? TAs? Charities? TAs have been having trouble selling many other race bibs discounting them (Dopey was discounted, Goofy sold for just the half price) & charities have also waived fundraising for past races too. I'm just not sure I get why Darkside has to instantly get knocked when it's not much different than some other races and selling out.

TAs & Charities bought the bibs and took the gamble to sell them, that's business & happens. We don't know that it's lack of interest in the theme? Price plays a part? Time of Year plays a part? Maybe some TAs got bib happy and overbought with delusions of grandeur on selling them.

Darkside was well liked though too, there were a few issues (which they are changing things for) but overall people enjoyed it.

Tower ending without notice and Wine & Dine changing didn't have people registered already for another half of it, which DL Star Wars does.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Thinking more about this, for years it took months to sell out most of the rD events, if they sold out at all. We hit a peak in running in America over the last 5 years (and rD saw a similar spike in participation which resulted in quick sellouts). Race participation started to drop in 2015 and 2016 across the country for races of every distance (some say the decline actually started in 2014).

This may not be a rD saturation thing as much as running as a sport simply seeing the pendulum swing in the other direction. Maybe it just took longer for the drop-off to impact rD events since rD races seem to attract so many "new" runners. But most races are seeing declines in participation right now.

 

[Anisum]

Here's what I think is interesting about the idea of Dark Side being axed. Obviously it means the removal of Kessel Run or at least a re-theme but the issue with that is there would be no East Coast Races to pair it with. The only race I could conceivably see Light Side pairing with is Super Heroes. I also think that part of the struggle is the number of bibs they offer for a WDW race. In DL there is less room therefore less bibs making it easier to sell out. At least that would be my thought. That being said as someone who wanted to do Kessel Run but lack the funds to do two rD races a year without either saving up in advance or sacrificing the option of doing one next year I would be disappointed if they removed it.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

Out of curiosity due to the discussion about Dark Side not selling well, I looked at the results for last year. There were 18,000 half marathon finishers. Compare that to Avengers at Disneyland which had less than 8,000. I understand DL races have a smaller capacity, but Avengers also didn't sell out and with less than half the number of race finishers, I can't imagine it made more money than Dark Side. Avengers is still around for what will be its 4th year, and I highly doubt Dark Side sales are so poor that it dropped below the number of registrants for Avengers. Once again I say that maybe they'll nix Dark Side eventually and realize they don't need 2 Star Wars races, but I think they'll keep it for now. Especially since the new movies are still coming out, and it gives Star Wars fans 2 options for a race since not everyone can make it to the West Coast.

Dark Side is also suffering I think from the timing of the weekend. Right after Easter/Spring Break is not a great time for a lot of people. It works out well for me this year since it's the exact same time as our Spring Break, but for a lot of others it wouldn't be. Maybe they could try to move the weekend first before dumping it altogether.

 

[DVCFan1994]

Out of curiosity due to the discussion about Dark Side not selling well, I looked at the results for last year. There were 18,000 half marathon finishers. Compare that to Avengers at Disneyland which had less than 8,000. I understand DL races have a smaller capacity, but Avengers also didn't sell out and with less than half the number of race finishers, I can't imagine it made more money than Dark Side. Avengers is still around for what will be its 4th year, and I highly doubt Dark Side sales are so poor that it dropped below the number of registrants for Avengers. Once again I say that maybe they'll nix Dark Side eventually and realize they don't need 2 Star Wars races, but I think they'll keep it for now. Especially since the new movies are still coming out, and it gives Star Wars fans 2 options for a race since not everyone can make it to the West Coast.

Dark Side is also suffering I think from the timing of the weekend. Right after Easter/Spring Break is not a great time for a lot of people. It works out well for me this year since it's the exact same time as our Spring Break, but for a lot of others it wouldn't be. Maybe they could try to move the weekend first before dumping it altogether.

I agree with the second part of this. I had been planning on Kessel run this year, but I realized Dark Side is the same week as Easter week. No way. I've been there a few Easter and many Christmas weeks, and it's just so crowded. Race weekend vacations are busy enough, no way I was adding the Easter crowds into the mix. I'm not the only person I know who came to this conclusion either. It's spring break for multiple Northeastern US states, so normally this weekend is good for us, but not with Easter in the mix!

In general, I agree that numbers are down across races overall. I'd lean toward the renaming of the weekends for now.. With multiple Star Wars movies slated in the next few years (Last Jedi and the Han Solo movie both upcoming) and the two new Star Wars lands to come I'd be a little surprised if Disney dropped these race weekends all together just yet. But that may just be my desire to do both talking

 

[rteetz]

Out of curiosity due to the discussion about Dark Side not selling well, I looked at the results for last year. There were 18,000 half marathon finishers. Compare that to Avengers at Disneyland which had less than 8,000. I understand DL races have a smaller capacity, but Avengers also didn't sell out and with less than half the number of race finishers, I can't imagine it made more money than Dark Side. Avengers is still around for what will be its 4th year, and I highly doubt Dark Side sales are so poor that it dropped below the number of registrants for Avengers. Once again I say that maybe they'll nix Dark Side eventually and realize they don't need 2 Star Wars races, but I think they'll keep it for now. Especially since the new movies are still coming out, and it gives Star Wars fans 2 options for a race since not everyone can make it to the West Coast.

Dark Side is also suffering I think from the timing of the weekend. Right after Easter/Spring Break is not a great time for a lot of people. It works out well for me this year since it's the exact same time as our Spring Break, but for a lot of others it wouldn't be. Maybe they could try to move the weekend first before dumping it altogether.

Avengers is an interesting one to look at. With it going into its fourth year but only third year of the challenge I wonder if they stop that one after year 5 because of the infinity stone medals. Once they hit five that's all the stones so they would have to change the medal anyways.

Timing could also be an issue but a lot of the weekends not ideal times which I think is part of the point. A good amount of these races were created to bring people in during down times at WDW or DL. Marathon weekend isn't even necessarily a good time for a lot of people because it's right after the holidays.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Marathon weekend isn't even necessarily a good time for a lot of people because it's right after the holidays.

I have always wondered at the timing. Seems like the first week of February would be better for everyone, including Disney. The current marathon weekend has carryover vacationers from the holidays, so less need, and MLK weekend immediately after. It is a tiny down window. There is a solid month of slow time at WDW between MLK weekend and President's Day weekend. That is a far more logical time to have this huge 4 day event, IMO.

 

[Barca33Runner]

I'm running Dark Side for the first time this year because I wanted to try a weekend outside of Marathon Weekend where I didn't have the pressure of a full marathon weighing on me. I'm a little surprised that it is already rumored for cancellation/re-theming moving forward, but I guess it doesn't greatly affect my future plans.

I have always equated the running boom and RD's expansion as something akin to the golf boom post-Tiger. There were a couple years where golf was a huge growth industry and new equipment manufacturers, courses, real estate ventures, etc. were popping up everywhere. However, it only took a couple years for that bubble to burst (well before Tiger's troubles began) and for courses to start closing, real estate ventures to dry up, and manufacturers to stop making equipment (Nike just got out of the golf equipment business because they couldn't make it work. Nike!). It was only a matter of time before RD was going to have to close some of their expanded offerings; it's a little disconcerting that it might be happening this quickly, but I think it is inevitable.

 

[rteetz]

I have always wondered at the timing. Seems like the first week of February would be better for everyone, including Disney. The current marathon weekend has carryover vacationers from the holidays, so less need, and MLK weekend immediately after. It is a tiny down window. There is a solid month of slow time at WDW between MLK weekend and President's Day weekend. That is a far more logical time to have this huge 4 day event, IMO.

Yes but the current timing works out great for me since I'm still on break

Since they have princess in February and that weekend hasn't had any major problems selling I can't see them ever moving Marathon Weekend to February.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Yes but the current timing works out great for me since I'm still on break

Since they have princess in February and that weekend hasn't had any major problems selling I can't see them ever moving Marathon Weekend to February.

Flip the two since marathon weekend has far more runners?

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Thinking more about this, for years it took months to sell out most of the rD events, if they sold out at all. We hit a peak in running in America over the last 5 years (and rD saw a similar spike in participation which resulted in quick sellouts). Race participation started to drop in 2015 and 2016 across the country for races of every distance (some say the decline actually started in 2014).

This may not be a rD saturation thing as much as running as a sport simply seeing the pendulum swing in the other direction. Maybe it just took longer for the drop-off to impact rD events since rD races seem to attract so many "new" runners. But most races are seeing declines in participation right now.

Agree! So are Disney crossfit games coming next?

 

[DOOM1001]

Thinking more about this, for years it took months to sell out most of the rD events, if they sold out at all. We hit a peak in running in America over the last 5 years (and rD saw a similar spike in participation which resulted in quick sellouts). Race participation started to drop in 2015 and 2016 across the country for races of every distance (some say the decline actually started in 2014).

This may not be a rD saturation thing as much as running as a sport simply seeing the pendulum swing in the other direction. Maybe it just took longer for the drop-off to impact rD events since rD races seem to attract so many "new" runners. But most races are seeing declines in participation right now.

Its definitely not just over saturation at Run Disney,numbers for pretty much all races seem to be down.If there are fewer people running who might entice a new runner to try a race then numbers are going to fall.I think that's what happened in the running boom,new runners were brought in by friends to try a half,maybe they did one or maybe a couple but eventually realized its not for them.The challenge for Run Disney is also the price of the race,the trip and how construction has changed race weekends to basically all look the same with no night races and less than interesting reworked courses,but with that said numbers are down at most races,look at the runner totals for a pretty nice half in Miami that I used to do before I moved away.Its not the main Miami marathon but the Miami 13.1,solid race and I can't say a bad word about it.2014 total finishers 2500+,2015 2800+,2016 2100+,the 2017 race was this past weekend 1800+,that's 900 fewer than 2015,that's a pretty substantial amount and every other race I run I see similar drops.If you frequent the runningintheusa website to look for races you would have noticed how much of a drop in races there are.As far as Run Disney,they need to finish construction to improve courses,change W&D back to a night race as well as have another Halloween themed night race cause I miss ToT bad,advertise running through new park
areas and stop with this signing up 11 months before the race thing,these are not $40-$50 races that get away with doing that.Also improve medals cause that Kylo Ren Dark side half medal is one of the weakest Run Disney medals I've seen.

 

[sidrich]

.As far as Run Disney,they need to finish construction to improve courses,change W&D back to a night race as well as have another Halloween themed night race cause I miss ToT bad,advertise running through new park
areas and stop with this signing up 11 months before the race thing,these are not $40-$50 races that get away with doing that.Also improve medals cause that Kylo Ren Dark side half medal is one of the weakest Run Disney medals I've seen.

Hmm- Our local half marathon- the Mohawk Hudson River Half- keeps selling out faster. I missed out last year because I waited a week!

But I agree with you about the medals. Tink - whose medal I always thought was cute- got redesigned in a weird shape that looks super cheesy- like a kids race medal- and she doesn't spin. The Kylo Ren medal similarly looks like it came out of a vending machine. The Challenge medal looks nice. Seems like they are redesigning the medals so only the Challenge medals get spinners. Huh- as if a half marathon isn't a sufficiently impressive achievement that it no longer merits a nice classic looking medal?

 

[Ariel484]

Agree! So are Disney crossfit games coming next?

They had that! https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/b...ey-fit-challenge-at-walt-disney-world-resort/

It doesn't explicitly say "Crossfit" but I think that's what they're getting at.

 

[Anisum]

But I agree with you about the medals. Tink - whose medal I always thought was cute- got redesigned in a weird shape that looks super cheesy- like a kids race medal- and she doesn't spin. The Kylo Ren medal similarly looks like it came out of a vending machine. The Challenge medal looks nice. Seems like they are redesigning the medals so only the Challenge medals get spinners. Huh- as if a half marathon isn't a sufficiently impressive achievement that it no longer merits a nice classic looking medal?

I agree with you about the half medal for Tink. I will admit to being jealous of this year's PDC medal. Last year's is my second least favorite rD medal I've seen.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Hmm- Our local half marathon- the Mohawk Hudson River Half- keeps selling out faster. I missed out last year because I waited a week!

There are local exceptions, but it is a fact that the national numbers are down significantly over the last 3 years.

 

[pixarmom]

I have always wondered at the timing. Seems like the first week of February would be better for everyone, including Disney. The current marathon weekend has carryover vacationers from the holidays, so less need, and MLK weekend immediately after. It is a tiny down window. There is a solid month of slow time at WDW between MLK weekend and President's Day weekend. That is a far more logical time to have this huge 4 day event, IMO.

I so wish they would schedule marathon weekend in February! We'd spend more if it wasn't immediately after the holidays. This year, it was just our youngest son and me for most of the time - my husband and older kids only joined us for the weekend - so we spent far less on resorts and food. Put marathon weekend in February and we would bring the whole family, which means CL at a deluxe resort and meals for 5.

 

[cavepig]

When it comes to scheduling races they can only please so many people, they'll never make everyone happy but by offering 4 on each coast it gives more variety to times of year than when they had fewer races. Not sure if they really market in hopes that one person will run every single race they offer.

As far as Run Disney,they need to finish construction to improve courses,change W&D back to a night race as well as have another Halloween themed night race cause I miss ToT bad,advertise running through new park
areas and stop with this signing up 11 months before the race thing,these are not $40-$50 races that get away with doing that.Also improve medals cause that Kylo Ren Dark side half medal is one of the weakest Run Disney medals I've seen.

Construction is only playing a minor roll in the Studios portions of courses, it didn't do anything to AK portions/races. W&D is all sold out but the challenge so don't see it going back to night. Signing up 11 months out isn't hurting registrations, example Wine & Dine as well as some of marathon weekend is sold out. I think Kylo Ren looks great as the medal and I'm sure I'll like it better in person.